Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Safe Bulkers, Inc. (SB)

$4.22

-0.06 (-1.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -10.47 | 4.22 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 193.19197.76198.16329.03349.72415.20492.95585.25694.83824.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 102.2293.428.72168.74182.07172.64204.96243.34288.91343
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 54.1543.11-45.55116.38132.5583.1498.70117.18139.13165.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 48.0750.3154.2752.3649.5289.50106.26126.16149.78177.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 81.77106.38105.22102.08114.38176.83209.94249.26295.93351.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.2216.085.498.757.1618.2121.6225.6730.4736.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.149.2712.048.6517.3217.0120.2023.9828.4733.80
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.1112.9613.489.9810.4918.7322.2326.4031.3437.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -45.93-39.24-50.44-109.23-183.28-128.45-152.50-181.05-214.95-255.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.22
Beta 0.992
Diluted Shares Outstanding 120.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.933
Total Debt 414.36
Total Equity 509.16
Total Capital 923.52
Debt Weighting 44.87
Equity Weighting 55.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 193.19197.76198.16329.03349.72415.20492.95585.25694.83824.94
EBITDA 102.2293.428.72168.74182.07172.64204.96243.34288.91343
EBIT 54.1543.11-45.55116.38132.5583.1498.70117.18139.13165.18
Tax Rate 0.00%167.20%257.86%6.19%5.20%87.29%87.29%87.29%87.29%87.29%
EBIAT 54.15-28.9771.91109.17125.6610.5712.5414.8917.6820.99
Depreciation 48.0750.3154.2752.3649.5289.50106.26126.16149.78177.83
Accounts Receivable --3.8610.59-3.261.59-11.05-3.41-4.05-4.81-5.71
Inventories --5.13-2.773.38-8.670.31-3.19-3.78-4.49-5.33
Accounts Payable -6.860.51-3.500.508.243.514.164.945.87
Capital Expenditure -45.93-39.24-50.44-109.23-183.28-128.45-152.50-181.05-214.95-255.20
UFCF 56.29-20.0384.0748.94-14.68-30.87-36.78-43.67-51.84-61.55
WACC
PV UFCF -28.93-32.29-35.92-39.95-44.44
SUM PV UFCF -181.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) -61.86
Terminal Value -992.88
Present Value of Terminal Value -716.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -898.43
Net Debt 365.18
Equity Value -1,263.60
Shares Outstanding 120.65
Equity Value Per Share -10.47