Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sberbank of Russia (SBER.ME)

292.6 ₽

+0.91 (+0.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 254.63 | 292.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,292,4002,305,499.992,497,999.992,547,999.992,149,999.992,124,751.252,099,799.022,075,139.822,050,770.212,026,686.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,835,3001,068,800.011,067,899.991,540,000.012,139,599.991,398,617.281,382,192.481,365,960.561,349,919.271,334,066.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,835,300968,000954,2001,416,8001,989,799.991,288,521.171,273,389.291,258,435.121,243,656.561,229,051.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -100,800.01113,699.99123,200149,800110,096.11108,803.19107,525.45106,262.71105,014.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3,346,2003,401,899.992,847,999.994,215,600.012,706,9002,969,918.152,935,040.622,900,572.672,866,509.512,832,846.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 323,900325,750.94352,949.84360,014.49303,779.88300,212.41296,686.84293,202.67289,759.41286,356.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---5,199,900.01-5,303,981.26-4,475,494.40-4,422,935.98-4,370,994.79-4,319,663.58-4,268,935.18-4,218,802.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 97,80048,50071,199.99153,399.9981,918.3580,956.3480,005.6279,066.0678,137.5477,219.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -177,900.01-205,800-164,099.99-299,600-188,202.42-185,992.25-183,808.03-181,649.46-179,516.24-177,408.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 292.6
Beta 0.594
Diluted Shares Outstanding 21,400
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.72
After-tax Cost of Debt 102.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.077
Total Debt 1,221,900
Total Equity 6,261,640
Total Capital 7,483,540
Debt Weighting 16.33
Equity Weighting 83.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,292,4002,305,499.992,497,999.992,547,999.992,149,999.992,124,751.252,099,799.022,075,139.822,050,770.212,026,686.79
EBITDA 1,835,3001,068,800.011,067,899.991,540,000.012,139,599.991,398,617.281,382,192.481,365,960.561,349,919.271,334,066.35
EBIT 1,835,300968,000954,2001,416,8001,989,799.991,288,521.171,273,389.291,258,435.121,243,656.561,229,051.55
Tax Rate 20.39%25.80%19.23%14.05%26.72%21.24%21.24%21.24%21.24%21.24%
EBIAT 1,461,117.73718,242.91770,711.681,217,696.371,458,082.581,014,854.291,002,936.25991,158.16979,518.40968,015.33
Depreciation -100,800.01113,699.99123,200149,800110,096.11108,803.19107,525.45106,262.71105,014.80
Accounts Receivable --1,850.94-27,198.90-7,064.6556,234.603,567.473,525.573,484.173,443.253,402.82
Inventories ---104,081.25-828,486.86-52,558.42-51,941.19-51,331.21-50,728.40-50,132.67
Accounts Payable --49,30022,70082,200-71,481.64-962.02-950.72-939.55-928.52-917.62
Capital Expenditure -177,900-205,800-164,100-299,600-188,202.42-185,992.25-183,808.03-181,649.46-179,516.24-177,408.07
UFCF 1,283,217.73562,091.99715,812.791,220,512.98575,946.27889,005.19878,565.07868,247.55858,051.20847,974.59
WACC
PV UFCF 724,535.61583,559.05470,013.01378,560.20304,901.83
SUM PV UFCF 2,461,569.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 22.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 864,934.08
Terminal Value 4,178,425.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,502,414.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,963,984.48
Net Debt -1,485,000
Equity Value 5,448,984.48
Shares Outstanding 21,400
Equity Value Per Share 254.63