Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK)

$17.75

+0.62 (+3.62%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 117.57 | 17.75 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	651.56	821.37	693.24	1,427.42	1,437.16	1,857.70	2,401.31	3,104	4,012.30	5,186.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	227.71	186.55	211.33	880.99	618.82	716.79	926.54	1,197.66	1,548.13	2,001.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	126.68	64.28	69.04	728.35	397.46	430.65	556.67	719.56	930.12	1,202.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	101.03	122.27	142.29	152.64	221.36	286.14	369.87	478.10	618.01	798.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	204.92	117.82	183.21	450.28	284.32	459.05	593.38	767.01	991.46	1,281.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	40.01	60.27	38.93	90.72	91.44	118.20	152.78	197.49	255.28	329.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	27.44	51.15	47.29	75.08	80.91	104.59	135.20	174.76	225.90	292
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	20.96	42.78	32.85	21.84	52.79	68.24	88.21	114.02	147.39	190.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-328.63	-347.14	-72.06	-130.15	-25.40	-423.49	-547.41	-707.60	-914.66	-1,182.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 17.75
Beta	1.052
Diluted Shares Outstanding	102.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.04
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.574
Total Debt	1,285.18
Total Equity	1,820.03
Total Capital	3,105.21
Debt Weighting	41.39
Equity Weighting	58.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	651.56	821.37	693.24	1,427.42	1,437.16	1,857.70	2,401.31	3,104	4,012.30	5,186.40
EBITDA	227.71	186.55	211.33	880.99	618.82	716.79	926.54	1,197.66	1,548.13	2,001.15
EBIT	126.68	64.28	69.04	728.35	397.46	430.65	556.67	719.56	930.12	1,202.30
Tax Rate	0.10%	-0.68%	1.55%	-0.02%	0.04%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%
EBIAT	126.55	64.72	67.97	728.46	397.29	429.78	555.55	718.12	928.26	1,199.89
Depreciation	101.03	122.27	142.29	152.64	221.36	286.14	369.87	478.10	618.01	798.85
Accounts Receivable	-	-20.27	21.35	-51.80	-0.71	-26.76	-34.59	-44.71	-57.79	-74.70
Inventories	-	-23.72	3.86	-27.78	-5.84	-23.68	-30.61	-39.56	-51.14	-66.10
Accounts Payable	-	21.82	-9.93	-11.02	30.96	15.45	19.97	25.81	33.37	43.13
Capital Expenditure	-328.63	-347.14	-72.06	-130.15	-25.40	-423.49	-547.41	-707.60	-914.66	-1,182.31
UFCF	-101.06	-182.32	153.48	660.36	617.65	257.45	332.79	430.17	556.04	718.76
WACC
PV UFCF						241.24	292.19	353.92	428.67	519.22
SUM PV UFCF										1,835.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.72
Free cash flow (t + 1)	733.13
Terminal Value	15,532.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	11,220.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	13,055.70
Net Debt	1,000.86
Equity Value	12,054.84
Shares Outstanding	102.54
Equity Value Per Share	117.57