Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc... (SC)

$41.6

+0.01 (+0.02%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -991.53 | 41.6 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	5,815.66	5,717.39	6,060.42	6,573.42	6,743.72	7,002.78	7,271.78	7,551.12	7,841.19	8,142.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,010.17	3,178.12	4,019.01	4,699.06	4,623.17	4,393.59	4,562.36	4,737.62	4,919.61	5,108.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,915.40	1,774.46	2,350.54	2,710.51	2,414.17	2,518.05	2,614.78	2,715.23	2,819.53	2,927.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,094.77	1,403.65	1,668.47	1,988.55	2,209	1,875.53	1,947.58	2,022.39	2,100.08	2,180.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	160.18	527.80	148.44	174.09	204.71	281.78	292.60	303.84	315.52	327.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	698.94	595.27	561.39	531.75	608.03	683.45	709.71	736.97	765.28	794.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	412.37	468.06	472.32	499.33	531.37	539.86	560.60	582.14	604.50	627.72
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-5,619.93	-6,024.33	-9,829.75	-8,589.78	-6,884.13	-8,360.69	-8,681.86	-9,015.36	-9,361.68	-9,721.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 41.6
Beta	1.014
Diluted Shares Outstanding	317.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.71
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.279
Total Debt	41,138.67
Total Equity	13,215.87
Total Capital	54,354.54
Debt Weighting	75.69
Equity Weighting	24.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	5,815.66	5,717.39	6,060.42	6,573.42	6,743.72	7,002.78	7,271.78	7,551.12	7,841.19	8,142.40
EBITDA	3,010.17	3,178.12	4,019.01	4,699.06	4,623.17	4,393.59	4,562.36	4,737.62	4,919.61	5,108.59
EBIT	1,915.40	1,774.46	2,350.54	2,710.51	2,414.17	2,518.05	2,614.78	2,715.23	2,819.53	2,927.84
Tax Rate	33.97%	-44.21%	23.18%	26.58%	24.71%	12.84%	12.84%	12.84%	12.84%	12.84%
EBIAT	1,264.82	2,558.99	1,805.73	1,990.19	1,817.68	2,194.66	2,278.97	2,366.51	2,457.42	2,551.82
Depreciation	1,094.77	1,403.65	1,668.47	1,988.55	2,209	1,875.53	1,947.58	2,022.39	2,100.08	2,180.75
Accounts Receivable	-	103.67	33.88	29.64	-76.29	-75.42	-26.25	-27.26	-28.31	-29.40
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	55.69	4.26	27.01	32.04	8.49	20.74	21.53	22.36	23.22
Capital Expenditure	-5,619.93	-6,024.33	-9,829.75	-8,589.78	-6,884.13	-8,360.69	-8,681.86	-9,015.36	-9,361.68	-9,721.30
UFCF	-3,260.34	-1,902.32	-6,317.41	-4,554.39	-2,901.69	-4,357.42	-4,460.82	-4,632.18	-4,810.12	-4,994.90
WACC
PV UFCF						-4,202.76	-4,149.78	-4,156.24	-4,162.71	-4,169.19
SUM PV UFCF										-20,840.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	3.68
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-5,094.80
Terminal Value	-303,261.75
Present Value of Terminal Value	-253,129.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-273,970.14
Net Debt	41,029.62
Equity Value	-314,999.76
Shares Outstanding	317.69
Equity Value Per Share	-991.53