Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)

$24.12

+0.70 (+2.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 32.83 | 24.12 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,029.651,036.55976.771,330.391,262.231,344.231,431.551,524.541,623.571,729.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 72.3571.8938.08226.43170.61130.11138.56147.57157.15167.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 50.5154.9421.96207.68147.42106.85113.79121.18129.05137.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.8416.9516.1118.7523.2023.2624.7826.3928.1029.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 67.0261.90106.53132.4062.97103.04109.74116.87124.46132.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.222.727.1014.163.056.496.917.367.848.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 257.54259.49233.27285.20390.39339.54361.59385.08410.10436.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 48.7160.6657.7269.0978.8575.1079.9785.1790.7096.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.41-18.50-12.40-31.39-77.29-32.95-35.09-37.37-39.80-42.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.12
Beta 1.430
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.347
Total Debt 343.23
Total Equity 670.83
Total Capital 1,014.05
Debt Weighting 33.85
Equity Weighting 66.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,029.651,036.55976.771,330.391,262.231,344.231,431.551,524.541,623.571,729.03
EBITDA 72.3571.8938.08226.43170.61130.11138.56147.57157.15167.36
EBIT 50.5154.9421.96207.68147.42106.85113.79121.18129.05137.43
Tax Rate 24.27%21.62%25.80%25.25%25.19%24.42%24.42%24.42%24.42%24.42%
EBIAT 38.2543.0616.30155.24110.2980.758691.5897.53103.87
Depreciation 21.8416.9516.1118.7523.2023.2624.7826.3928.1029.92
Accounts Receivable --1.51-4.37-7.0611.11-3.44-0.42-0.45-0.48-0.51
Inventories --1.9626.23-51.94-105.1950.85-22.06-23.49-25.01-26.64
Accounts Payable -11.95-2.9511.379.76-3.754.885.205.535.89
Capital Expenditure -7.41-18.50-12.40-31.39-77.29-32.95-35.09-37.37-39.80-42.38
UFCF 52.685038.9294.98-28.13114.7358.0861.8565.8770.15
WACC
PV UFCF 106.6950.2349.7549.2748.80
SUM PV UFCF 304.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 71.55
Terminal Value 1,293.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 900.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,204.79
Net Debt 291.86
Equity Value 912.93
Shares Outstanding 27.81
Equity Value Per Share 32.83