Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)
$24.12
+0.70 (+2.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,029.65 | 1,036.55 | 976.77 | 1,330.39 | 1,262.23 | 1,344.23 | 1,431.55 | 1,524.54 | 1,623.57 | 1,729.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 72.35 | 71.89 | 38.08 | 226.43 | 170.61 | 130.11 | 138.56 | 147.57 | 157.15 | 167.36 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 50.51 | 54.94 | 21.96 | 207.68 | 147.42 | 106.85 | 113.79 | 121.18 | 129.05 | 137.43 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 21.84 | 16.95 | 16.11 | 18.75 | 23.20 | 23.26 | 24.78 | 26.39 | 28.10 | 29.92 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 67.02 | 61.90 | 106.53 | 132.40 | 62.97 | 103.04 | 109.74 | 116.87 | 124.46 | 132.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.22 | 2.72 | 7.10 | 14.16 | 3.05 | 6.49 | 6.91 | 7.36 | 7.84 | 8.35 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 257.54 | 259.49 | 233.27 | 285.20 | 390.39 | 339.54 | 361.59 | 385.08 | 410.10 | 436.73 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 48.71 | 60.66 | 57.72 | 69.09 | 78.85 | 75.10 | 79.97 | 85.17 | 90.70 | 96.59 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.41 | -18.50 | -12.40 | -31.39 | -77.29 | -32.95 | -35.09 | -37.37 | -39.80 | -42.38 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 24.12 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.430 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.81 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.07% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.347 |
| Total Debt | 343.23 |
| Total Equity | 670.83 |
| Total Capital | 1,014.05 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.85 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.15 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,029.65 | 1,036.55 | 976.77 | 1,330.39 | 1,262.23 | 1,344.23 | 1,431.55 | 1,524.54 | 1,623.57 | 1,729.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 72.35 | 71.89 | 38.08 | 226.43 | 170.61 | 130.11 | 138.56 | 147.57 | 157.15 | 167.36 |
| EBIT | 50.51 | 54.94 | 21.96 | 207.68 | 147.42 | 106.85 | 113.79 | 121.18 | 129.05 | 137.43 |
| Tax Rate | 24.27% | 21.62% | 25.80% | 25.25% | 25.19% | 24.42% | 24.42% | 24.42% | 24.42% | 24.42% |
| EBIAT | 38.25 | 43.06 | 16.30 | 155.24 | 110.29 | 80.75 | 86 | 91.58 | 97.53 | 103.87 |
| Depreciation | 21.84 | 16.95 | 16.11 | 18.75 | 23.20 | 23.26 | 24.78 | 26.39 | 28.10 | 29.92 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.51 | -4.37 | -7.06 | 11.11 | -3.44 | -0.42 | -0.45 | -0.48 | -0.51 |
| Inventories | - | -1.96 | 26.23 | -51.94 | -105.19 | 50.85 | -22.06 | -23.49 | -25.01 | -26.64 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 11.95 | -2.95 | 11.37 | 9.76 | -3.75 | 4.88 | 5.20 | 5.53 | 5.89 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.41 | -18.50 | -12.40 | -31.39 | -77.29 | -32.95 | -35.09 | -37.37 | -39.80 | -42.38 |
| UFCF | 52.68 | 50 | 38.92 | 94.98 | -28.13 | 114.73 | 58.08 | 61.85 | 65.87 | 70.15 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 106.69 | 50.23 | 49.75 | 49.27 | 48.80 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 304.74 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 71.55 |
| Terminal Value | 1,293.94 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 900.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,204.79 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 291.86 |
| Equity Value | 912.93 |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.81 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 32.83 |