Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

K+S Aktiengesellschaft (SDF.DE)

19.595 €

-0.14 (-0.71%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 20.86 | 19.595 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,627	4,039.10	4,070.70	2,432.10	3,213.10	3,245.26	3,277.73	3,310.53	3,343.66	3,377.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	660.20	552.80	703.10	545.60	1,741	816.37	824.54	832.79	841.12	849.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	354.30	173.70	271.20	-1,723	3,259.80	333.23	336.56	339.93	343.33	346.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	305.90	379.10	431.90	2,268.60	-1,518.80	483.14	487.98	492.86	497.79	502.77
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	301.60	265	396.60	353	709	397.21	401.19	405.20	409.26	413.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	715	837	725	273	570	566.04	571.71	577.43	583.21	589.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	690.90	691.50	789.30	483.50	496.50	589.93	595.83	601.80	607.82	613.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	288.40	239.70	241.30	187.30	186.90	216.34	218.50	220.69	222.90	225.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-754.80	-514.70	-505.90	-536.40	-358.70	-514.05	-519.19	-524.39	-529.64	-534.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 19.595
Beta	1.027
Diluted Shares Outstanding	191.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-22.98
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.344
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	3,750.48
Total Capital	3,750.48
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,627	4,039.10	4,070.70	2,432.10	3,213.10	3,245.26	3,277.73	3,310.53	3,343.66	3,377.13
EBITDA	660.20	552.80	703.10	545.60	1,741	816.37	824.54	832.79	841.12	849.54
EBIT	354.30	173.70	271.20	-1,723	3,259.80	333.23	336.56	339.93	343.33	346.77
Tax Rate	38.65%	20.72%	30.00%	14.22%	-22.98%	16.12%	16.12%	16.12%	16.12%	16.12%
EBIAT	217.36	137.72	189.84	-1,477.97	4,008.84	279.50	282.30	285.13	287.98	290.86
Depreciation	305.90	379.10	431.90	2,268.60	-1,518.80	483.14	487.98	492.86	497.79	502.77
Accounts Receivable	-	-122	112	452	-297	3.96	-5.66	-5.72	-5.78	-5.84
Inventories	-	-0.60	-97.80	305.80	-13	-93.43	-5.90	-5.96	-6.02	-6.08
Accounts Payable	-	-48.70	1.60	-54	-0.40	29.44	2.17	2.19	2.21	2.23
Capital Expenditure	-754.80	-514.70	-505.90	-536.40	-358.70	-514.05	-519.19	-524.39	-529.64	-534.94
UFCF	-231.54	-169.18	131.64	958.03	1,820.94	188.56	241.68	244.10	246.54	249.01
WACC
PV UFCF						174.05	205.90	191.95	178.95	166.83
SUM PV UFCF										917.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.34
Free cash flow (t + 1)	253.99
Terminal Value	4,006.13
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,683.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,601.68
Net Debt	-390.80
Equity Value	3,992.48
Shares Outstanding	191.40
Equity Value Per Share	20.86