Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sea Limited (SE)

$64.61

-3.94 (-5.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -10,250.91 | 64.61 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 414.19826.972,175.384,375.669,955.1922,184.4349,436.42110,165.53245,496.01547,070.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -482.32-847.13-1,207.10-1,328.17-1,574.95-14,222.41-31,693.62-70,626.97-157,387.15-350,726.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -523.24-925.86-1,328.73-1,692.69-2,404.26-16,070.47-35,811.90-79,804.26-177,838.10-396,299.51
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 40.9278.73121.63364.51829.311,848.074,118.289,177.3020,450.9545,573.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,365.361,003.533,221.316,292.9810,159.0437,489.1483,541.88186,167.11414,860.11924,486.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 185.31317.87451.36668.381,905.366,138.0813,678.2830,481.0767,924.89151,365.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.7937.6926.9364.22117.50479.501,068.532,381.145,306.2011,824.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.6437.1669.37121.64213.586521,452.943,237.767,215.1216,078.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -79.75-178.48-239.84-756.43-1,720.98-3,835.09-8,546.23-19,044.66-42,439.66-94,573.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.61
Beta 1.630
Diluted Shares Outstanding 477.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -19.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.192
Total Debt 4,253.52
Total Equity 30,836.08
Total Capital 35,089.60
Debt Weighting 12.12
Equity Weighting 87.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 414.19826.972,175.384,375.669,955.1922,184.4349,436.42110,165.53245,496.01547,070.33
EBITDA -482.32-847.13-1,207.10-1,328.17-1,574.95-14,222.41-31,693.62-70,626.97-157,387.15-350,726.02
EBIT -523.24-925.86-1,328.73-1,692.69-2,404.26-16,070.47-35,811.90-79,804.26-177,838.10-396,299.51
Tax Rate -2.18%-0.77%-6.88%-9.09%-19.33%-7.65%-7.65%-7.65%-7.65%-7.65%
EBIAT -534.66-933-1,420.16-1,846.54-2,869.05-17,300.11-38,552.06-85,910.51-191,445.43-426,622.48
Depreciation 40.9278.73121.63364.51829.311,848.074,118.289,177.3020,450.9545,573.49
Accounts Receivable --132.56-133.49-217.02-1,236.97-4,232.73-7,540.20-16,802.79-37,443.82-83,440.88
Inventories --27.9010.76-37.29-53.28-362-589.03-1,312.61-2,925.06-6,518.29
Accounts Payable -28.5232.2152.2791.94438.42800.941,784.833,977.368,863.26
Capital Expenditure -79.75-178.49-239.84-756.43-1,720.98-3,835.09-8,546.23-19,044.66-42,439.66-94,573.75
UFCF -573.49-1,164.70-1,628.90-2,440.51-4,959.03-23,443.44-50,308.30-112,108.44-249,825.66-556,718.65
WACC
PV UFCF -21,267.75-41,403.78-83,702.59-169,214.59-342,087.13
SUM PV UFCF -657,675.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.23
Free cash flow (t + 1) -567,853.02
Terminal Value -6,899,793.67
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,239,718.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,897,394.78
Net Debt -4,994.25
Equity Value -4,892,400.53
Shares Outstanding 477.26
Equity Value Per Share -10,250.91