Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sea Limited (SE)
$64.61
-3.94 (-5.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 414.19 | 826.97 | 2,175.38 | 4,375.66 | 9,955.19 | 22,184.43 | 49,436.42 | 110,165.53 | 245,496.01 | 547,070.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -482.32 | -847.13 | -1,207.10 | -1,328.17 | -1,574.95 | -14,222.41 | -31,693.62 | -70,626.97 | -157,387.15 | -350,726.02 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -523.24 | -925.86 | -1,328.73 | -1,692.69 | -2,404.26 | -16,070.47 | -35,811.90 | -79,804.26 | -177,838.10 | -396,299.51 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 40.92 | 78.73 | 121.63 | 364.51 | 829.31 | 1,848.07 | 4,118.28 | 9,177.30 | 20,450.95 | 45,573.49 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,365.36 | 1,003.53 | 3,221.31 | 6,292.98 | 10,159.04 | 37,489.14 | 83,541.88 | 186,167.11 | 414,860.11 | 924,486.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 185.31 | 317.87 | 451.36 | 668.38 | 1,905.36 | 6,138.08 | 13,678.28 | 30,481.07 | 67,924.89 | 151,365.77 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 9.79 | 37.69 | 26.93 | 64.22 | 117.50 | 479.50 | 1,068.53 | 2,381.14 | 5,306.20 | 11,824.49 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 8.64 | 37.16 | 69.37 | 121.64 | 213.58 | 652 | 1,452.94 | 3,237.76 | 7,215.12 | 16,078.39 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -79.75 | -178.48 | -239.84 | -756.43 | -1,720.98 | -3,835.09 | -8,546.23 | -19,044.66 | -42,439.66 | -94,573.75 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 64.61 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.630 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 477.26 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -19.33 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.27% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.192 |
| Total Debt | 4,253.52 |
| Total Equity | 30,836.08 |
| Total Capital | 35,089.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 414.19 | 826.97 | 2,175.38 | 4,375.66 | 9,955.19 | 22,184.43 | 49,436.42 | 110,165.53 | 245,496.01 | 547,070.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -482.32 | -847.13 | -1,207.10 | -1,328.17 | -1,574.95 | -14,222.41 | -31,693.62 | -70,626.97 | -157,387.15 | -350,726.02 |
| EBIT | -523.24 | -925.86 | -1,328.73 | -1,692.69 | -2,404.26 | -16,070.47 | -35,811.90 | -79,804.26 | -177,838.10 | -396,299.51 |
| Tax Rate | -2.18% | -0.77% | -6.88% | -9.09% | -19.33% | -7.65% | -7.65% | -7.65% | -7.65% | -7.65% |
| EBIAT | -534.66 | -933 | -1,420.16 | -1,846.54 | -2,869.05 | -17,300.11 | -38,552.06 | -85,910.51 | -191,445.43 | -426,622.48 |
| Depreciation | 40.92 | 78.73 | 121.63 | 364.51 | 829.31 | 1,848.07 | 4,118.28 | 9,177.30 | 20,450.95 | 45,573.49 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -132.56 | -133.49 | -217.02 | -1,236.97 | -4,232.73 | -7,540.20 | -16,802.79 | -37,443.82 | -83,440.88 |
| Inventories | - | -27.90 | 10.76 | -37.29 | -53.28 | -362 | -589.03 | -1,312.61 | -2,925.06 | -6,518.29 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 28.52 | 32.21 | 52.27 | 91.94 | 438.42 | 800.94 | 1,784.83 | 3,977.36 | 8,863.26 |
| Capital Expenditure | -79.75 | -178.49 | -239.84 | -756.43 | -1,720.98 | -3,835.09 | -8,546.23 | -19,044.66 | -42,439.66 | -94,573.75 |
| UFCF | -573.49 | -1,164.70 | -1,628.90 | -2,440.51 | -4,959.03 | -23,443.44 | -50,308.30 | -112,108.44 | -249,825.66 | -556,718.65 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -21,267.75 | -41,403.78 | -83,702.59 | -169,214.59 | -342,087.13 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -657,675.84 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.23 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -567,853.02 |
| Terminal Value | -6,899,793.67 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,239,718.94 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -4,897,394.78 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -4,994.25 |
| Equity Value | -4,892,400.53 |
| Shares Outstanding | 477.26 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -10,250.91 |