Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)
$30.34
+0.08 (+0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,286.02 | 4,443.60 | 5,081.26 | 5,539.25 | 6,038.52 | 6,582.79 | 7,176.11 | 7,822.92 | 8,528.02 | 9,296.68 | 10,134.61 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 486.27 | 473.71 | 596.60 | 623.11 | 679.28 | 740.50 | 807.24 | 880 | 959.32 | 1,045.79 | 1,140.05 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 340.96 | 313.70 | 394.94 | 420.75 | 458.67 | 500.01 | 545.08 | 594.21 | 647.77 | 706.15 | 769.80 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 145.31 | 160.01 | 201.66 | 202.36 | 220.60 | 240.49 | 262.16 | 285.79 | 311.55 | 339.63 | 370.25 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 99.03 | 122.55 | 175.18 | 157.24 | 171.41 | 186.86 | 203.70 | 222.06 | 242.08 | 263.90 | 287.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 573.75 | 691.73 | 706.68 | 791.39 | 862.72 | 940.48 | 1,025.25 | 1,117.66 | 1,218.40 | 1,328.22 | 1,447.93 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 126.56 | 128.19 | 146.69 | 161.09 | 175.61 | 191.44 | 208.70 | 227.51 | 248.01 | 270.37 | 294.74 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -161.63 | -233.24 | -167.28 | -227.34 | -247.83 | -270.16 | -294.51 | -321.06 | -350 | -381.54 | -415.93 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 30.34 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.349 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 130.59 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 36.13 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.83% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.900 |
Total Debt | 4,762.18 |
Total Equity | 3,962.22 |
Total Capital | 8,724.41 |
Debt Weighting | 54.58 |
Equity Weighting | 45.42 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 4,286.02 | 4,443.60 | 5,081.26 | 5,539.25 | 6,038.52 | 6,582.79 | 7,176.11 | 7,822.92 | 8,528.02 | 9,296.68 | 10,134.61 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 486.27 | 473.71 | 596.60 | 623.11 | 679.28 | 740.50 | 807.24 | 880 | 959.32 | 1,045.79 | 1,140.05 |
EBIT | 340.96 | 313.70 | 394.94 | 420.75 | 458.67 | 500.01 | 545.08 | 594.21 | 647.77 | 706.15 | 769.80 |
Tax Rate | 36.14% | 12.48% | 41.48% | 33.90% | 43.26% | 36.13% | 33.90% | 33.90% | 33.90% | 33.90% | 33.90% |
EBIAT | 217.72 | 274.54 | 231.11 | 278.12 | 260.24 | 319.38 | 360.30 | 392.77 | 428.18 | 466.77 | 508.84 |
Depreciation | 145.31 | 160.01 | 201.66 | 202.36 | 220.60 | 240.49 | 262.16 | 285.79 | 311.55 | 339.63 | 370.25 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -117.98 | -14.94 | -84.72 | -71.33 | -77.76 | -84.77 | -92.41 | -100.74 | -109.82 | -119.72 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.64 | 18.50 | 14.40 | 14.52 | 15.83 | 17.26 | 18.81 | 20.51 | 22.35 | 24.37 |
Capital Expenditure | -161.63 | -233.24 | -167.28 | -227.34 | -146.44 | -180.54 | -294.51 | -321.06 | -350 | -381.54 | -415.93 |
UFCF | 201.40 | 84.96 | 269.04 | 182.83 | 176.21 | 227.77 | 260.44 | 283.91 | 309.50 | 337.40 | 367.81 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 192.87 | 176.21 | 215.92 | 234.03 | 241.85 | 249.93 | 258.28 | 266.90 | |||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,319.67 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.49 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 375.16 |
Terminal Value | 10,749.68 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 8,228.85 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 9,548.53 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,687.87 |
Equity Value | 4,860.65 |
Shares Outstanding | 130.59 |
Equity Value Per Share | 37.22 |