Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)

$23.45

+0.85 (+3.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 66.19 | 23.45 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,081.265,453.925,531.716,204.516,333.546,697.767,082.927,490.237,920.978,376.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 649.85709.45802.76966.20635.51882.98933.75987.451,044.231,104.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 448.20496.87597.10763.55429.69640.52677.35716.30757.50801.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 201.66212.58205.66202.64205.82242.46256.40271.15286.74303.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 175.18335.88577.0674.3197.91305.17322.72341.28360.90381.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 706.68762.68896.76889.30941.31981.871,038.331,098.041,161.191,227.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --5.696.386.516.887.287.708.148.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 146.69145.73177.09233.84186.73207.33219.25231.86245.19259.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -167.28-157.13-146.44-180.54-190.37-197.40-208.75-220.75-233.45-246.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.45
Beta 1.436
Diluted Shares Outstanding 122.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 38.98
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.934
Total Debt 5,124.74
Total Equity 2,872.88
Total Capital 7,997.62
Debt Weighting 64.08
Equity Weighting 35.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,081.265,453.925,531.716,204.516,333.546,697.767,082.927,490.237,920.978,376.48
EBITDA 649.85709.45802.76966.20635.51882.98933.75987.451,044.231,104.28
EBIT 448.20496.87597.10763.55429.69640.52677.35716.30757.50801.06
Tax Rate 41.48%24.07%43.26%36.13%38.98%36.78%36.78%36.78%36.78%36.78%
EBIAT 262.28377.29338.78487.71262.18404.91428.19452.82478.85506.39
Depreciation 201.66212.58205.66202.64205.82242.46256.40271.15286.74303.23
Accounts Receivable --56-134.097.46-52.01-40.56-56.46-59.71-63.14-66.78
Inventories ----0.69-0.13-0.37-0.40-0.42-0.44-0.47
Accounts Payable --0.9631.3656.76-47.1220.6011.9212.6113.3314.10
Capital Expenditure -167.28-157.13-146.44-180.54-190.37-197.40-208.75-220.75-233.45-246.87
UFCF 296.65375.77295.27573.34178.37429.64430.91455.69481.89509.61
WACC
PV UFCF 407.05386.78387.52388.26388.99
SUM PV UFCF 1,958.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) 519.80
Terminal Value 14,642.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,176.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,135.34
Net Debt 5,026.83
Equity Value 8,108.50
Shares Outstanding 122.51
Equity Value Per Share 66.19