Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)

$30.34

+0.08 (+0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 37.22 | 30.34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,286.024,443.605,081.265,539.256,038.526,582.797,176.117,822.928,528.029,296.6810,134.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 486.27473.71596.60623.11679.28740.50807.24880959.321,045.791,140.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 340.96313.70394.94420.75458.67500.01545.08594.21647.77706.15769.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 145.31160.01201.66202.36220.60240.49262.16285.79311.55339.63370.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 99.03122.55175.18157.24171.41186.86203.70222.06242.08263.90287.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 573.75691.73706.68791.39862.72940.481,025.251,117.661,218.401,328.221,447.93
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 126.56128.19146.69161.09175.61191.44208.70227.51248.01270.37294.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -161.63-233.24-167.28-227.34-247.83-270.16-294.51-321.06-350-381.54-415.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.34
Beta 1.349
Diluted Shares Outstanding 130.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 36.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.900
Total Debt 4,762.18
Total Equity 3,962.22
Total Capital 8,724.41
Debt Weighting 54.58
Equity Weighting 45.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,286.024,443.605,081.265,539.256,038.526,582.797,176.117,822.928,528.029,296.6810,134.61
EBITDA 486.27473.71596.60623.11679.28740.50807.24880959.321,045.791,140.05
EBIT 340.96313.70394.94420.75458.67500.01545.08594.21647.77706.15769.80
Tax Rate 36.14%12.48%41.48%33.90%43.26%36.13%33.90%33.90%33.90%33.90%33.90%
EBIAT 217.72274.54231.11278.12260.24319.38360.30392.77428.18466.77508.84
Depreciation 145.31160.01201.66202.36220.60240.49262.16285.79311.55339.63370.25
Accounts Receivable --117.98-14.94-84.72-71.33-77.76-84.77-92.41-100.74-109.82-119.72
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -1.6418.5014.4014.5215.8317.2618.8120.5122.3524.37
Capital Expenditure -161.63-233.24-167.28-227.34-146.44-180.54-294.51-321.06-350-381.54-415.93
UFCF 201.4084.96269.04182.83176.21227.77260.44283.91309.50337.40367.81
WACC
PV UFCF 192.87176.21215.92234.03241.85249.93258.28266.90
SUM PV UFCF 1,319.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 375.16
Terminal Value 10,749.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,228.85

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,548.53
Net Debt 4,687.87
Equity Value 4,860.65
Shares Outstanding 130.59
Equity Value Per Share 37.22