Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Select Medical Holdings Corporation (SEM)
$23.45
+0.85 (+3.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,081.26 | 5,453.92 | 5,531.71 | 6,204.51 | 6,333.54 | 6,697.76 | 7,082.92 | 7,490.23 | 7,920.97 | 8,376.48 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 649.85 | 709.45 | 802.76 | 966.20 | 635.51 | 882.98 | 933.75 | 987.45 | 1,044.23 | 1,104.28 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 448.20 | 496.87 | 597.10 | 763.55 | 429.69 | 640.52 | 677.35 | 716.30 | 757.50 | 801.06 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 201.66 | 212.58 | 205.66 | 202.64 | 205.82 | 242.46 | 256.40 | 271.15 | 286.74 | 303.23 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 175.18 | 335.88 | 577.06 | 74.31 | 97.91 | 305.17 | 322.72 | 341.28 | 360.90 | 381.66 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 706.68 | 762.68 | 896.76 | 889.30 | 941.31 | 981.87 | 1,038.33 | 1,098.04 | 1,161.19 | 1,227.96 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | 5.69 | 6.38 | 6.51 | 6.88 | 7.28 | 7.70 | 8.14 | 8.61 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 146.69 | 145.73 | 177.09 | 233.84 | 186.73 | 207.33 | 219.25 | 231.86 | 245.19 | 259.29 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -167.28 | -157.13 | -146.44 | -180.54 | -190.37 | -197.40 | -208.75 | -220.75 | -233.45 | -246.87 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 23.45 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.436 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 122.51 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 38.98 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.54% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.934 |
Total Debt | 5,124.74 |
Total Equity | 2,872.88 |
Total Capital | 7,997.62 |
Debt Weighting | 64.08 |
Equity Weighting | 35.92 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,081.26 | 5,453.92 | 5,531.71 | 6,204.51 | 6,333.54 | 6,697.76 | 7,082.92 | 7,490.23 | 7,920.97 | 8,376.48 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 649.85 | 709.45 | 802.76 | 966.20 | 635.51 | 882.98 | 933.75 | 987.45 | 1,044.23 | 1,104.28 |
EBIT | 448.20 | 496.87 | 597.10 | 763.55 | 429.69 | 640.52 | 677.35 | 716.30 | 757.50 | 801.06 |
Tax Rate | 41.48% | 24.07% | 43.26% | 36.13% | 38.98% | 36.78% | 36.78% | 36.78% | 36.78% | 36.78% |
EBIAT | 262.28 | 377.29 | 338.78 | 487.71 | 262.18 | 404.91 | 428.19 | 452.82 | 478.85 | 506.39 |
Depreciation | 201.66 | 212.58 | 205.66 | 202.64 | 205.82 | 242.46 | 256.40 | 271.15 | 286.74 | 303.23 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -56 | -134.09 | 7.46 | -52.01 | -40.56 | -56.46 | -59.71 | -63.14 | -66.78 |
Inventories | - | - | - | -0.69 | -0.13 | -0.37 | -0.40 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.47 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.96 | 31.36 | 56.76 | -47.12 | 20.60 | 11.92 | 12.61 | 13.33 | 14.10 |
Capital Expenditure | -167.28 | -157.13 | -146.44 | -180.54 | -190.37 | -197.40 | -208.75 | -220.75 | -233.45 | -246.87 |
UFCF | 296.65 | 375.77 | 295.27 | 573.34 | 178.37 | 429.64 | 430.91 | 455.69 | 481.89 | 509.61 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 407.05 | 386.78 | 387.52 | 388.26 | 388.99 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,958.60 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.55 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 519.80 |
Terminal Value | 14,642.20 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,176.74 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 13,135.34 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,026.83 |
Equity Value | 8,108.50 |
Shares Outstanding | 122.51 |
Equity Value Per Share | 66.19 |