Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Secure Energy Services Inc. (SES.TO)

$11.48

+0.15 (+1.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 4.63 | 11.48 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,937.453,072.481,823.663,7668,00211,661.7116,995.1824,767.9036,095.4852,603.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 171.16156.4475.58-7551507.59739.731,078.041,571.082,289.62
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 66.4147.17-101.21-387373-171.86-250.46-365.01-531.95-775.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 104.75109.27176.79380178679.45990.191,443.052,103.033,064.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7.938.856.78101231.3845.7366.6597.13141.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 242.53228.47143.89345449894.561,303.681,899.922,768.844,035.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 70.1065.1648.19100100257.83375.75547.60798.041,163.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 168.12189.18143.87279404751.641,095.411,596.392,326.503,390.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -177.08-120.86-71.34-43-96-378.19-551.16-803.23-1,170.59-1,705.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.48
Beta 2.567
Diluted Shares Outstanding 313.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.98
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.319
Total Debt 1,031
Total Equity 3,595.16
Total Capital 4,626.16
Debt Weighting 22.29
Equity Weighting 77.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,937.453,072.481,823.663,7668,00211,661.7116,995.1824,767.9036,095.4852,603.71
EBITDA 171.16156.4475.58-7551507.59739.731,078.041,571.082,289.62
EBIT 66.4147.17-101.21-387373-171.86-250.46-365.01-531.95-775.23
Tax Rate 44.78%126.42%20.62%25.27%26.98%48.82%48.82%48.82%48.82%48.82%
EBIAT 36.67-12.46-80.34-289.19272.35-87.97-128.20-186.83-272.27-396.80
Depreciation 104.75109.27176.79380178679.45990.191,443.052,103.033,064.85
Accounts Receivable -14.0684.58-201.11-104-445.56-409.12-596.24-868.92-1,266.33
Inventories -4.9416.97-51.81-0-157.83-117.92-171.85-250.44-364.98
Accounts Payable -21.06-45.30135.13125347.64343.76500.98730.111,064.02
Capital Expenditure -177.08-120.86-71.34-43-96-378.19-551.16-803.23-1,170.59-1,705.96
UFCF -35.6516.0181.36-69.98375.35-42.45127.56185.89270.91394.81
WACC
PV UFCF -37.2498.13125.44160.34204.96
SUM PV UFCF 551.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) 406.66
Terminal Value 3,693.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,917.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,469.10
Net Debt 1,019
Equity Value 1,450.10
Shares Outstanding 313.17
Equity Value Per Share 4.63