Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF)

$63.1

-1.62 (-2.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 145.10 | 63.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,882.302,982.913,293.023,696.104,677.415,293.395,990.496,779.397,672.198,682.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 384.20744.89829.86777.421,176.841,161.321,314.261,487.341,683.211,904.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 339.57704.44775.48716.941,113.081,081.331,223.741,384.901,567.281,773.67
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 44.6340.4554.3860.4863.7679.9990.52102.45115.94131.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4,469.795,007.014,397.334,509.574,077.227,047.047,975.089,025.3410,213.9211,559.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,843.201,717.051,979.581,485.991,727.132,739.393,100.143,508.413,970.444,493.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,413.421,613.832,599.442,411.612,363.833,153.413,568.694,038.664,570.525,172.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -28.22-108.21-157.90-73.36-188.18-163.14-184.62-208.93-236.45-267.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 63.1
Beta 1.291
Diluted Shares Outstanding 114.57
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.03%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.796
Total Debt 1,173.48
Total Equity 7,229.56
Total Capital 8,403.03
Debt Weighting 13.96
Equity Weighting 86.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,882.302,982.913,293.023,696.104,677.415,293.395,990.496,779.397,672.198,682.56
EBITDA 384.20744.89829.86777.421,176.841,161.321,314.261,487.341,683.211,904.88
EBIT 339.57704.44775.48716.941,113.081,081.331,223.741,384.901,567.281,773.67
Tax Rate 32.15%26.27%25.16%22.68%22.70%25.79%25.79%25.79%25.79%25.79%
EBIAT 230.38519.36580.37554.33860.41802.42908.091,027.681,163.021,316.18
Depreciation 44.6340.4554.3860.4863.7679.9990.52102.45115.94131.20
Accounts Receivable -126.15-262.53493.58-241.14-1,012.25-360.76-408.27-462.03-522.88
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -200.41985.61-187.83-47.78789.58415.28469.97531.86601.90
Capital Expenditure -28.22-108.21-157.90-73.36-188.18-163.14-184.62-208.93-236.45-267.59
UFCF 246.80778.171,199.94847.21447.08496.60868.52982.901,112.341,258.83
WACC
PV UFCF 456.22733.03762.12792.36823.81
SUM PV UFCF 3,567.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,284.01
Terminal Value 18,744.60
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,266.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 15,834.43
Net Debt -789.85
Equity Value 16,624.27
Shares Outstanding 114.57
Equity Value Per Share 145.10