Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX)
$6.18
+0.16 (+2.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 977.14 | 1,226.50 | 1,577.56 | 1,711.73 | 2,101.26 | 2,549.90 | 3,094.32 | 3,754.99 | 4,556.71 | 5,529.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 20.46 | 65.25 | 45.15 | -25.10 | -31.19 | 37.36 | 45.33 | 55.01 | 66.76 | 81.01 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 12.80 | 54.71 | 30.82 | -47.72 | -61.12 | 10.34 | 12.55 | 15.23 | 18.48 | 22.43 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.66 | 10.54 | 14.33 | 22.62 | 29.93 | 27.01 | 32.78 | 39.78 | 48.27 | 58.58 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 110.61 | 297.52 | 314.21 | 286.49 | 231.33 | 424.51 | 515.14 | 625.13 | 758.60 | 920.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | 27.67 | 33.57 | 40.74 | 49.44 | 60 | 72.81 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 67.59 | 85.09 | 118.22 | 124.82 | 212.29 | 197.58 | 239.77 | 290.96 | 353.09 | 428.48 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 44.24 | 79.78 | 98.43 | 85.18 | 73.50 | 131.30 | 159.33 | 193.35 | 234.63 | 284.73 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -17.17 | -16.57 | -30.82 | -30.21 | -35.26 | -43.37 | -52.63 | -63.86 | -77.50 | -94.05 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.18 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.735 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 105.98 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 85.48 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.313 |
| Total Debt | 147.32 |
| Total Equity | 654.93 |
| Total Capital | 802.25 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.36 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.64 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 977.14 | 1,226.50 | 1,577.56 | 1,711.73 | 2,101.26 | 2,549.90 | 3,094.32 | 3,754.99 | 4,556.71 | 5,529.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 20.46 | 65.25 | 45.15 | -25.10 | -31.19 | 37.36 | 45.33 | 55.01 | 66.76 | 81.01 |
| EBIT | 12.80 | 54.71 | 30.82 | -47.72 | -61.12 | 10.34 | 12.55 | 15.23 | 18.48 | 22.43 |
| Tax Rate | 104.64% | 17.94% | -19.66% | -40.64% | 85.48% | 29.55% | 29.55% | 29.55% | 29.55% | 29.55% |
| EBIAT | -0.59 | 44.90 | 36.88 | -67.12 | -8.88 | 7.29 | 8.84 | 10.73 | 13.02 | 15.80 |
| Depreciation | 7.66 | 10.54 | 14.33 | 22.62 | 29.93 | 27.01 | 32.78 | 39.78 | 48.27 | 58.58 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | -5.91 | -7.17 | -8.70 | -10.56 | -12.81 |
| Inventories | - | -17.50 | -33.12 | -6.60 | -87.48 | 14.71 | -42.19 | -51.19 | -62.12 | -75.39 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 35.54 | 18.65 | -13.26 | -11.68 | 57.80 | 28.03 | 34.02 | 41.28 | 50.10 |
| Capital Expenditure | -17.16 | -16.57 | -30.82 | -30.21 | -35.26 | -43.37 | -52.63 | -63.86 | -77.50 | -94.05 |
| UFCF | -10.10 | 56.92 | 5.91 | -94.56 | -113.36 | 57.53 | -32.32 | -39.23 | -47.60 | -57.76 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | - |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -58.92 |
| Terminal Value | - |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | - |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | - |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 17.54 |
| Equity Value | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 105.98 |
| Equity Value Per Share | - |