Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX)

$3.35

-0.03 (-0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -6.65 | 3.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,577.561,711.732,101.262,072.811,638.421,675.091,712.571,750.901,790.081,830.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 37.83-29.05-33.43-170.86-134.50-58.10-59.40-60.73-62.09-63.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 23.50-51.66-63.36-208.05-177.80-85.20-87.11-89.06-91.05-93.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.3322.6229.9337.1943.3027.1027.7128.3328.9729.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 314.21286.49231.33212.98257.60246.78252.30257.95263.72269.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables --27.6727.560.6715.0115.3415.6816.0416.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 118.22124.82212.29197.25137.18143.31146.52149.80153.15156.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 90.8885.1873.50143.9399.3291.2693.3095.3997.5399.71
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -30.82-30.21-35.26-46.35-19.01-29.46-30.12-30.79-31.48-32.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.35
Beta 2.244
Diluted Shares Outstanding 114.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.328
Total Debt 154.76
Total Equity 384.19
Total Capital 538.96
Debt Weighting 28.71
Equity Weighting 71.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,577.561,711.732,101.262,072.811,638.421,675.091,712.571,750.901,790.081,830.14
EBITDA 37.83-29.05-33.43-170.86-134.50-58.10-59.40-60.73-62.09-63.48
EBIT 23.50-51.66-63.36-208.05-177.80-85.20-87.11-89.06-91.05-93.09
Tax Rate -19.66%-40.64%85.48%1.12%-0.87%5.08%5.08%5.08%5.08%5.08%
EBIAT 28.11-72.66-9.20-205.71-179.35-80.87-82.68-84.53-86.42-88.36
Depreciation 14.3322.6229.9337.1943.3027.1027.7128.3328.9729.61
Accounts Receivable ---0.1126.89-14.33-0.34-0.34-0.35-0.36
Inventories --6.60-87.4815.0460.08-6.13-3.21-3.28-3.35-3.43
Accounts Payable --5.71-11.6870.43-44.62-8.062.042.092.132.18
Capital Expenditure -30.82-30.21-35.26-46.35-19.01-29.46-30.12-30.79-31.48-32.18
UFCF 11.62-92.56-113.68-129.29-112.72-111.75-86.59-88.53-90.51-92.53
WACC
PV UFCF -99.46-68.59-62.41-56.79-51.67
SUM PV UFCF -338.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) -94.38
Terminal Value -911.04
Present Value of Terminal Value -508.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -847.63
Net Debt -84.68
Equity Value -762.95
Shares Outstanding 114.68
Equity Value Per Share -6.65