Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX)
$3.35
-0.03 (-0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,577.56 | 1,711.73 | 2,101.26 | 2,072.81 | 1,638.42 | 1,675.09 | 1,712.57 | 1,750.90 | 1,790.08 | 1,830.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 37.83 | -29.05 | -33.43 | -170.86 | -134.50 | -58.10 | -59.40 | -60.73 | -62.09 | -63.48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 23.50 | -51.66 | -63.36 | -208.05 | -177.80 | -85.20 | -87.11 | -89.06 | -91.05 | -93.09 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.33 | 22.62 | 29.93 | 37.19 | 43.30 | 27.10 | 27.71 | 28.33 | 28.97 | 29.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 314.21 | 286.49 | 231.33 | 212.98 | 257.60 | 246.78 | 252.30 | 257.95 | 263.72 | 269.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | 27.67 | 27.56 | 0.67 | 15.01 | 15.34 | 15.68 | 16.04 | 16.39 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 118.22 | 124.82 | 212.29 | 197.25 | 137.18 | 143.31 | 146.52 | 149.80 | 153.15 | 156.58 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 90.88 | 85.18 | 73.50 | 143.93 | 99.32 | 91.26 | 93.30 | 95.39 | 97.53 | 99.71 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -30.82 | -30.21 | -35.26 | -46.35 | -19.01 | -29.46 | -30.12 | -30.79 | -31.48 | -32.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.35 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.244 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 114.68 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.87 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.328 |
| Total Debt | 154.76 |
| Total Equity | 384.19 |
| Total Capital | 538.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 71.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,577.56 | 1,711.73 | 2,101.26 | 2,072.81 | 1,638.42 | 1,675.09 | 1,712.57 | 1,750.90 | 1,790.08 | 1,830.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 37.83 | -29.05 | -33.43 | -170.86 | -134.50 | -58.10 | -59.40 | -60.73 | -62.09 | -63.48 |
| EBIT | 23.50 | -51.66 | -63.36 | -208.05 | -177.80 | -85.20 | -87.11 | -89.06 | -91.05 | -93.09 |
| Tax Rate | -19.66% | -40.64% | 85.48% | 1.12% | -0.87% | 5.08% | 5.08% | 5.08% | 5.08% | 5.08% |
| EBIAT | 28.11 | -72.66 | -9.20 | -205.71 | -179.35 | -80.87 | -82.68 | -84.53 | -86.42 | -88.36 |
| Depreciation | 14.33 | 22.62 | 29.93 | 37.19 | 43.30 | 27.10 | 27.71 | 28.33 | 28.97 | 29.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | 0.11 | 26.89 | -14.33 | -0.34 | -0.34 | -0.35 | -0.36 |
| Inventories | - | -6.60 | -87.48 | 15.04 | 60.08 | -6.13 | -3.21 | -3.28 | -3.35 | -3.43 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.71 | -11.68 | 70.43 | -44.62 | -8.06 | 2.04 | 2.09 | 2.13 | 2.18 |
| Capital Expenditure | -30.82 | -30.21 | -35.26 | -46.35 | -19.01 | -29.46 | -30.12 | -30.79 | -31.48 | -32.18 |
| UFCF | 11.62 | -92.56 | -113.68 | -129.29 | -112.72 | -111.75 | -86.59 | -88.53 | -90.51 | -92.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -99.46 | -68.59 | -62.41 | -56.79 | -51.67 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -338.91 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -94.38 |
| Terminal Value | -911.04 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -508.72 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -847.63 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -84.68 |
| Equity Value | -762.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | 114.68 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -6.65 |