Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (SFM)
$33.705
+0.42 (+1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 5,207.34 | 5,634.84 | 6,097.43 | 6,598 | 7,139.67 | 7,725.80 | 8,360.06 | 9,046.38 | 9,789.05 | 10,592.68 | 11,462.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 333.98 | 421.44 | 423.55 | 458.33 | 495.95 | 536.67 | 580.73 | 628.40 | 679.99 | 735.81 | 796.22 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 223.23 | 216.80 | 247.99 | 268.35 | 290.38 | 314.22 | 340.02 | 367.93 | 398.13 | 430.82 | 466.19 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 110.75 | 204.65 | 175.56 | 189.98 | 205.57 | 222.45 | 240.71 | 260.47 | 281.86 | 304.99 | 330.03 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 1.59 | 85.31 | 47.09 | 50.95 | 55.14 | 59.66 | 64.56 | 69.86 | 75.60 | 81.80 | 88.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 40.98 | 15.71 | 32.49 | 35.16 | 38.05 | 41.17 | 44.55 | 48.21 | 52.16 | 56.45 | 61.08 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 264.37 | 275.98 | 304.09 | 329.06 | 356.07 | 385.31 | 416.94 | 451.17 | 488.21 | 528.29 | 571.66 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 120.26 | 122.84 | 136.87 | 148.11 | 160.27 | 173.43 | 187.66 | 203.07 | 219.74 | 237.78 | 257.30 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -177.08 | -183.23 | -202.81 | -219.46 | -237.48 | -256.98 | -278.07 | -300.90 | -325.60 | -352.33 | -381.26 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 33.705 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.387 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 109.14 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.23 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.44% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 5.322 |
Total Debt | 1,540.67 |
Total Equity | 3,678.53 |
Total Capital | 5,219.20 |
Debt Weighting | 29.52 |
Equity Weighting | 70.48 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 5,207.34 | 5,634.84 | 6,097.43 | 6,598 | 7,139.67 | 7,725.80 | 8,360.06 | 9,046.38 | 9,789.05 | 10,592.68 | 11,462.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 333.98 | 421.44 | 423.55 | 458.33 | 495.95 | 536.67 | 580.73 | 628.40 | 679.99 | 735.81 | 796.22 |
EBIT | 223.23 | 216.80 | 247.99 | 268.35 | 290.38 | 314.22 | 340.02 | 367.93 | 398.13 | 430.82 | 466.19 |
Tax Rate | 19.03% | 23.72% | 23.20% | 23.73% | 24.27% | 25.23% | 23.20% | 23.20% | 23.20% | 23.20% | 23.20% |
EBIAT | 180.75 | 165.36 | 190.46 | 204.67 | 219.91 | 234.93 | 261.14 | 282.58 | 305.78 | 330.88 | 358.05 |
Depreciation | 110.75 | 204.65 | 175.56 | 189.98 | 205.57 | 222.45 | 240.71 | 260.47 | 281.86 | 304.99 | 330.03 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 25.26 | -16.78 | -2.67 | -2.89 | -3.12 | -3.38 | -3.66 | -3.96 | -4.28 | -4.63 |
Inventories | - | -11.61 | -28.12 | -24.96 | -27.01 | -29.23 | -31.63 | -34.23 | -37.04 | -40.08 | -43.37 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.57 | 14.03 | 11.24 | 12.16 | 13.16 | 14.24 | 15.41 | 16.67 | 18.04 | 19.52 |
Capital Expenditure | -177.08 | -183.23 | -202.81 | -121.97 | -102.38 | -124.01 | -278.07 | -300.90 | -325.60 | -352.33 | -381.26 |
UFCF | 114.42 | 203 | 132.35 | 158.79 | 170.26 | 181.20 | 203.01 | 219.67 | 237.71 | 257.22 | 278.34 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 142.82 | 164.95 | 170.26 | 174.43 | 188.12 | 195.96 | 204.13 | 212.64 | 221.50 | ||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,062.03 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 3.88 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 283.90 |
Terminal Value | 15,101.24 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,483.97 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 13,546 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,247.44 |
Equity Value | 12,298.57 |
Shares Outstanding | 109.14 |
Equity Value Per Share | 112.69 |