Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SGOCO Group, Ltd. (SGOC)

$6.2

-0.02 (-0.32%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,571,636.05 | 6.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	5.07	0.05	1.58	5.53	4.29	37.85	333.67	2,941.62	25,933.57	228,632.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-4.08	-9.16	-10.10	-20.31	-62.41	-1,552.49	-13,686.85	-120,664.28	-1,063,785.42	-9,378,412.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-5.35	-11.88	-12.49	-23.82	-67.21	-1,982.18	-17,475.07	-154,061.53	-1,358,218.10	-11,974,153.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1.26	2.72	2.38	3.52	4.80	429.69	3,788.22	33,397.25	294,432.68	2,595,740.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	0.03	4.26	14.34	5.16	3.03	713.73	6,292.33	55,473.70	489,060.30	4,311,592.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	0.12	0.70	31.09	35.29	22.50	341.34	3,009.26	26,529.86	233,889.22	2,061,985.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	0.22	0.24	3.67	12.85	9.98	88.03	776.05	6,841.68	60,316.77	531,757.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-2.44	-0.70	-0.12	-21.44	-188.99	-1,666.14	-14,688.85	-129,498.05
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 6.2
Beta	0.617
Diluted Shares Outstanding	79.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.46
After-tax Cost of Debt	8.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.457
Total Debt	11.79
Total Equity	491.02
Total Capital	502.81
Debt Weighting	2.35
Equity Weighting	97.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	5.07	0.05	1.58	5.53	4.29	37.85	333.67	2,941.62	25,933.57	228,632.30
EBITDA	-4.08	-9.16	-10.10	-20.31	-62.41	-1,552.49	-13,686.85	-120,664.28	-1,063,785.42	-9,378,412.65
EBIT	-5.35	-11.88	-12.49	-23.82	-67.21	-1,982.18	-17,475.07	-154,061.53	-1,358,218.10	-11,974,153.44
Tax Rate	5.87%	5.71%	10.75%	53.46%	0.46%	15.25%	15.25%	15.25%	15.25%	15.25%
EBIAT	-5.03	-11.20	-11.14	-11.09	-66.90	-1,679.87	-14,809.90	-130,565.17	-1,151,072.42	-10,147,941.47
Depreciation	1.26	2.72	2.38	3.52	4.80	429.69	3,788.22	33,397.25	294,432.68	2,595,740.79
Accounts Receivable	-	-0.58	-30.39	-4.20	12.79	-318.84	-2,667.92	-23,520.60	-207,359.37	-1,828,095.85
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	0.01	3.44	9.18	-2.87	78.04	688.02	6,065.63	53,475.09	471,440.45
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-2.44	-0.70	-0.12	-21.44	-188.99	-1,666.14	-14,688.85	-129,498.05
UFCF	-3.77	-9.06	-38.15	-3.29	-52.29	-1,512.42	-13,190.57	-116,289.03	-1,025,212.87	-9,038,354.13
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,407.16	-11,418.48	-93,660.35	-768,251.50	-6,301,603.36
SUM PV UFCF										-7,176,340.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.48
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-9,219,121.21
Terminal Value	-168,232,138.83
Present Value of Terminal Value	-117,292,617.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-124,468,958.21
Net Debt	8.76
Equity Value	-124,468,966.98
Shares Outstanding	79.20
Equity Value Per Share	-1,571,636.05