Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Star Group, L.P. (SGU)

$12.76

+0.16 (+1.27%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 95.75 | 12.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,677.84	1,753.87	1,467.46	1,497.09	2,006.56	2,128.21	2,257.24	2,394.09	2,539.24	2,693.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	98.35	70.25	115.06	163.69	93.05	141.65	150.23	159.34	169	179.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	65.48	36.32	79.43	129.23	59.50	97.83	103.76	110.05	116.72	123.80
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	32.86	33.93	35.62	34.46	33.55	43.82	46.47	49.29	52.28	55.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	14.53	4.90	56.91	4.77	14.62	25.84	27.41	29.07	30.83	32.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	132.67	120.25	83.59	99.68	138.25	144.75	153.53	162.84	172.71	183.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	56.38	64.79	50.26	61.18	83.56	79.72	84.56	89.68	95.12	100.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	35.80	33.97	30.83	37.29	49.06	47.28	50.14	53.18	56.41	59.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-13.59	-11.30	-14.13	-15.08	-18.70	-18.54	-19.67	-20.86	-22.12	-23.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 12.76
Beta	0.457
Diluted Shares Outstanding	37.38
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	28.02
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.687
Total Debt	282.96
Total Equity	477.02
Total Capital	759.98
Debt Weighting	37.23
Equity Weighting	62.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,677.84	1,753.87	1,467.46	1,497.09	2,006.56	2,128.21	2,257.24	2,394.09	2,539.24	2,693.19
EBITDA	98.35	70.25	115.06	163.69	93.05	141.65	150.23	159.34	169	179.25
EBIT	65.48	36.32	79.43	129.23	59.50	97.83	103.76	110.05	116.72	123.80
Tax Rate	22.09%	29.88%	35.85%	27.74%	28.02%	28.72%	28.72%	28.72%	28.72%	28.72%
EBIAT	51.02	25.46	50.96	93.39	42.83	69.74	73.96	78.45	83.20	88.25
Depreciation	32.86	33.93	35.62	34.46	33.55	43.82	46.47	49.29	52.28	55.45
Accounts Receivable	-	12.42	36.65	-16.09	-38.57	-6.50	-8.78	-9.31	-9.87	-10.47
Inventories	-	-8.41	14.53	-10.93	-22.37	3.84	-4.83	-5.13	-5.44	-5.77
Accounts Payable	-	-1.82	-3.15	6.46	11.77	-1.78	2.87	3.04	3.22	3.42
Capital Expenditure	-13.59	-11.30	-14.13	-15.08	-18.70	-18.54	-19.67	-20.86	-22.12	-23.47
UFCF	70.29	50.29	120.49	92.21	8.50	90.56	90.03	95.49	101.28	107.42
WACC
PV UFCF						86.61	82.35	83.53	84.73	85.95
SUM PV UFCF										423.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.56
Free cash flow (t + 1)	109.56
Terminal Value	4,279.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	3,424.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,847.70
Net Debt	268.34
Equity Value	3,579.37
Shares Outstanding	37.38
Equity Value Per Share	95.75