Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Source Energy Services Ltd. (SHLE.TO)

$1.25

-0.06 (-4.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -53.39 | 1.25 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 289.50415.03332.96249.88319.86341.16363.89388.12413.97441.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 21.2331.54-68.50-76.1036.24-16.90-18.02-19.22-20.50-21.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14.6719.53-84.72-122.155.27-42.92-45.78-48.83-52.08-55.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6.5612.0116.2146.0530.9826.0227.7629.6131.5833.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash -4.573.672.753.533.764.014.284.564.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 54.1124.5349.5433.6443.5045.4148.4351.6655.1058.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 48.9867.3560.9353.4756.3461.7265.8370.2274.9079.88
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 38.7735.9944.0829.4037.6440.1542.8245.6748.7151.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -50.52-67.98-19.67-3.68-6.52-29.51-31.47-33.57-35.81-38.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.25
Beta 2.848
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.55
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 13.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.153
Total Debt 221.47
Total Equity 16.93
Total Capital 238.40
Debt Weighting 92.90
Equity Weighting 7.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 289.50415.03332.96249.88319.86341.16363.89388.12413.97441.55
EBITDA 21.2331.54-68.50-76.1036.24-16.90-18.02-19.22-20.50-21.87
EBIT 14.6719.53-84.72-122.155.27-42.92-45.78-48.83-52.08-55.55
Tax Rate 23.38%-30.48%22.28%-18.53%0.00%-0.67%-0.67%-0.67%-0.67%-0.67%
EBIAT 11.2425.48-65.84-144.785.27-43.21-46.09-49.16-52.43-55.92
Depreciation 6.5612.0116.2146.0530.9826.0227.7629.6131.5833.68
Accounts Receivable -29.58-2515.89-9.86-1.91-3.02-3.23-3.44-3.67
Inventories --18.376.427.46-2.87-5.39-4.11-4.38-4.68-4.99
Accounts Payable --2.788.09-14.688.242.512.672.853.043.24
Capital Expenditure -50.52-67.98-19.67-3.68-6.52-29.51-31.47-33.57-35.81-38.19
UFCF -32.71-22.05-79.79-93.7425.24-51.48-54.27-57.88-61.74-65.85
WACC
PV UFCF -45.29-42-39.41-36.98-34.70
SUM PV UFCF -198.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) -67.16
Terminal Value -575.52
Present Value of Terminal Value -303.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -501.65
Net Debt 221.47
Equity Value -723.11
Shares Outstanding 13.55
Equity Value Per Share -53.39