Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. (SHLX)

$15.82

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 19.33 | 15.82 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 470.10524.70503481556581.99609.19637.67667.48698.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 372.60572.90669686691684.82716.84750.34785.42822.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 327.60527620636641629.59659.02689.83722.08755.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4545.9049505055.2357.8160.5163.3466.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 137.70208290320361300.36314.40329.09344.48360.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4147.5041415651.8254.2456.7859.4362.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 12.4012.701292215.4516.1716.9317.7218.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15.6012.9015212119.6720.5921.5622.5623.62
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -58-49.20-38-27-11-42.91-44.91-47.01-49.21-51.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.82
Beta 1.288
Diluted Shares Outstanding 444.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.11
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.06%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.839
Total Debt 2,719
Total Equity 7,025.66
Total Capital 9,744.66
Debt Weighting 27.90
Equity Weighting 72.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 470.10524.70503481556581.99609.19637.67667.48698.68
EBITDA 372.60572.90669686691684.82716.84750.34785.42822.13
EBIT 327.60527620636641629.59659.02689.83722.08755.83
Tax Rate 24.65%3.87%3.30%2.34%2.11%7.25%7.25%7.25%7.25%7.25%
EBIAT 246.85506.59599.56621.13627.46583.92611.22639.79669.70701
Depreciation 4545.9049505055.2357.8160.5163.3466.30
Accounts Receivable --6.506.50-0-154.18-2.42-2.54-2.65-2.78
Inventories --0.300.703-136.55-0.72-0.76-0.79-0.83
Accounts Payable --2.702.106-0-1.330.920.961.011.05
Capital Expenditure -58-49.20-38-27-11-42.91-44.91-47.01-49.21-51.51
UFCF 233.85493.79619.86653.13638.46605.65621.90650.97681.39713.24
WACC
PV UFCF 561.05533.67517.48501.77486.55
SUM PV UFCF 2,600.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) 727.51
Terminal Value 12,227.05
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,340.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,941.33
Net Debt 2,358
Equity Value 8,583.33
Shares Outstanding 444.10
Equity Value Per Share 19.33