Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID)

$3.06

+0.16 (+5.52%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 382.60 | 3.06 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	18,524.60	22,968.89	25,436.42	30,064.02	47,912.04	61,362.59	78,589.18	100,651.85	128,908.28	165,097.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4,291.66	8,606.67	4,507.21	9,192.89	21,742.36	18,938.37	24,255.02	31,064.24	39,785.04	50,954.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-	18,938.37	24,255.02	31,064.24	39,785.04	50,954.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	4,150.24	3,148.22	3,726.16	13,733.01	19,303.24	16,779.90	21,490.59	27,523.74	35,250.60	45,146.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,149.22	3,587.41	3,409.78	4,545.23	4,379.95	8,625.62	11,047.12	14,148.43	18,120.38	23,207.39
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	4,451.90	5,003.37	5,246.92	4,817.59	10,943.84	12,924.09	16,552.32	21,199.13	27,150.45	34,772.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,460.77	3,473.82	4,133.97	5,443.40	10,886.97	10,491.64	13,437	17,209.22	22,040.44	28,227.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,060.10	-1,319.30	-2,215.88	-1,683.84	-2,864.71	-3,897.50	-4,991.66	-6,392.99	-8,187.72	-10,486.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.06
Beta	1.573
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,376.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	34.08
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.51%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.980
Total Debt	33,119.07
Total Equity	4,211.67
Total Capital	37,330.74
Debt Weighting	88.72
Equity Weighting	11.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	18,524.60	22,968.89	25,436.42	30,064.02	47,912.04	61,362.59	78,589.18	100,651.85	128,908.28	165,097.26
EBITDA	4,291.66	8,606.67	4,507.21	9,192.89	21,742.36	18,938.37	24,255.02	31,064.24	39,785.04	50,954.06
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-	18,938.37	24,255.02	31,064.24	39,785.04	50,954.06
Tax Rate	98.03%	6.91%	-26.82%	22.85%	34.08%	27.01%	27.01%	27.01%	27.01%	27.01%
EBIAT	-	-	-	-	-	13,823.15	17,703.78	22,673.84	29,039.17	37,191.46
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Receivable	-	-438.19	177.63	-1,135.45	165.28	-4,245.67	-2,421.51	-3,101.31	-3,971.95	-5,087.01
Inventories	-	-551.46	-243.55	429.34	-6,126.25	-1,980.25	-3,628.23	-4,646.80	-5,951.32	-7,622.06
Accounts Payable	-	1,013.05	660.14	1,309.43	5,443.57	-395.33	2,945.36	3,772.23	4,831.22	6,187.51
Capital Expenditure	-1,060.10	-1,319.30	-2,215.88	-1,683.84	-2,864.71	-3,897.50	-4,991.66	-6,392.99	-8,187.72	-10,486.30
UFCF	-	-	-	-	-	3,304.40	9,607.74	12,304.97	15,759.39	20,183.60
WACC
PV UFCF						3,139.87	8,674.81	10,556.94	12,847.43	15,634.87
SUM PV UFCF										50,853.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.24
Free cash flow (t + 1)	20,587.27
Terminal Value	635,409.54
Present Value of Terminal Value	492,208.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	543,062.90
Net Debt	16,472.59
Equity Value	526,590.31
Shares Outstanding	1,376.36
Equity Value Per Share	382.60