Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG)

$104.01

-3.47 (-3.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 34.38 | 104.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 6,247.106,137.105,226.907,8267,842.108,495.729,203.839,970.9510,802.0111,702.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 387.20571.50323.501,063651.90740.75802.49869.37941.831,020.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 203.60393.50147.50899.50487.40513.17555.94602.28652.48706.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 183.60178176163.50164.50227.57246.54267.09289.35313.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 195.40374.501,172.501,418.301,166.801,098.731,190.311,289.521,3971,513.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 97.8045.10140.4043.1024.1099.31107.58116.55126.27136.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,386.902,331.702,032.502,060.402,150.302,868.743,107.853,366.883,647.513,951.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 153.70227.90812.60899.80879754.87817.79885.95959.791,039.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -133.50-136.30-83-129.60-138.90-159.26-172.54-186.92-202.50-219.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 104.01
Beta 2.182
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.602
Total Debt 1,330.30
Total Equity 5,897.37
Total Capital 7,227.67
Debt Weighting 18.41
Equity Weighting 81.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 6,247.106,137.105,226.907,8267,842.108,495.729,203.839,970.9510,802.0111,702.34
EBITDA 387.20571.50323.501,063651.90740.75802.49869.37941.831,020.33
EBIT 203.60393.50147.50899.50487.40513.17555.94602.28652.48706.86
Tax Rate 18.09%18.66%83.05%12.95%16.51%29.85%29.85%29.85%29.85%29.85%
EBIAT 166.77320.0824.99783.05406.92359.98389.98422.49457.70495.85
Depreciation 183.60178176163.50164.50227.57246.54267.09289.35313.47
Accounts Receivable -52.70-95.3097.3019-75.21-8.28-8.97-9.71-10.52
Inventories -55.20299.20-27.90-89.90-718.44-239.10-259.03-280.62-304.01
Accounts Payable -74.20584.7087.20-20.80-124.1362.9268.1673.8480
Capital Expenditure -133.50-136.30-83-129.60-138.90-159.26-172.54-186.92-202.50-219.37
UFCF 216.87543.88906.59973.55340.82-489.49279.52302.82328.06355.40
WACC
PV UFCF -434.79220.54212.23204.22196.52
SUM PV UFCF 398.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) 358.96
Terminal Value 3,099.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,714.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,112.78
Net Debt 163.50
Equity Value 1,949.28
Shares Outstanding 56.70
Equity Value Per Share 34.38