Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)

$95.08

+0.66 (+0.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 108.07 | 95.08 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,469.982,586.082,846.492,922.273,379.163,658.513,960.954,288.394,642.915,026.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 338.42281.01425.26393.18589.58515.19557.78603.89653.81707.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 286.32236.14370.06333.83534.48446.08482.95522.88566.10612.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 52.1044.8755.2059.3555.1169.1174.8381.0187.7194.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5,511.325,597.476,378.416,866.177,158.298,125.228,796.919,524.1310,311.4711,163.89
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,3861,361.311,441.981,468.511,594.271,879.332,034.692,202.892,3852,582.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.07-16.11-30.99-22.06-22.16-27.02-29.25-31.67-34.28-37.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 95.08
Beta 0.616
Diluted Shares Outstanding 60.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.08
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.413
Total Debt 506.05
Total Equity 5,771.36
Total Capital 6,277.41
Debt Weighting 8.06
Equity Weighting 91.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,469.982,586.082,846.492,922.273,379.163,658.513,960.954,288.394,642.915,026.72
EBITDA 338.42281.01425.26393.18589.58515.19557.78603.89653.81707.86
EBIT 286.32236.14370.06333.83534.48446.08482.95522.88566.10612.90
Tax Rate 35.55%15.48%19.25%18.69%20.08%21.81%21.81%21.81%21.81%21.81%
EBIAT 184.52199.58298.81271.43427.15348.77377.61408.82442.62479.21
Depreciation 52.1044.8755.2059.3555.1169.1174.8381.0187.7194.96
Accounts Receivable -24.69-80.67-26.53-125.76-285.06-155.36-168.20-182.11-197.16
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -14.07-16.11-30.99-22.06-22.16-27.02-29.25-31.67-34.28-37.12
UFCF 222.55253.03242.36282.19334.33105.82267.83289.97313.94339.89
WACC
PV UFCF 99.57237.15241.61246.15250.77
SUM PV UFCF 1,075.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.27
Free cash flow (t + 1) 346.69
Terminal Value 8,119.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,990.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,065.67
Net Debt 505.60
Equity Value 6,560.07
Shares Outstanding 60.70
Equity Value Per Share 108.07