Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

$4.7

-0.05 (-1.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 11.11 | 4.7 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,770.697,7948,0408,6969,00310,126.3011,389.7412,810.8314,409.2316,207.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,071.372,1962,4302,6272,6763,123.493,513.213,951.554,444.584,999.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,770.651,7281,8682,0442,0912,487.402,797.753,146.823,539.453,981.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 300.72468562583585636.09715.46804.72905.131,018.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 54.431067119157121.84137.04154.14173.37195
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 232.99670672722655740.64833.05936.981,053.891,185.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 22.20111024678.3188.0899.06111.42125.33140.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 735.081,1511,2231,2991,2481,448.411,629.131,832.392,061.022,318.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -355.70-363-350-388-426-493.52-555.10-624.35-702.25-789.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.7
Beta 1.041
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,990
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.187
Total Debt 9,822
Total Equity 18,753
Total Capital 28,575
Debt Weighting 34.37
Equity Weighting 65.63
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,770.697,7948,0408,6969,00310,126.3011,389.7412,810.8314,409.2316,207.05
EBITDA 2,071.372,1962,4302,6272,6763,123.493,513.213,951.554,444.584,999.12
EBIT 1,770.651,7281,8682,0442,0912,487.402,797.753,146.823,539.453,981.06
Tax Rate 17.22%23.64%69.53%13.89%24.42%29.74%29.74%29.74%29.74%29.74%
EBIAT 1,465.671,319.46569.091,760.041,580.301,747.561,965.602,210.852,486.692,796.95
Depreciation 300.72468562583585636.09715.46804.72905.131,018.06
Accounts Receivable --437.01-2-5067-85.64-92.41-103.94-116.91-131.49
Inventories -11.201-236167.69-9.77-10.99-12.36-13.90-15.64
Accounts Payable -415.927276-51200.41180.72203.26228.63257.15
Capital Expenditure -355.70-363-350-388-426-493.52-555.10-624.35-702.25-789.87
UFCF 1,410.691,414.56852.091,745.041,9231,995.142,203.282,478.182,787.383,135.16
WACC
PV UFCF 1,8621,919.052,014.452,114.602,219.72
SUM PV UFCF 10,129.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,197.86
Terminal Value 62,094.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,963.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 54,093.29
Net Debt 9,765
Equity Value 44,328.29
Shares Outstanding 3,990
Equity Value Per Share 11.11