Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

$4.085

-0.04 (-0.85%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 11.19 | 4.085 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,770.69	7,794	8,040	8,696	9,003	10,126.30	11,389.74	12,810.83	14,409.23	16,207.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,071.37	2,196	2,430	2,627	2,676	3,123.49	3,513.21	3,951.55	4,444.58	4,999.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,770.65	1,728	1,868	2,044	2,091	2,487.40	2,797.75	3,146.82	3,539.45	3,981.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	300.72	468	562	583	585	636.09	715.46	804.72	905.13	1,018.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	54.43	106	71	191	57	121.84	137.04	154.14	173.37	195
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	232.99	670	672	722	655	740.64	833.05	936.98	1,053.89	1,185.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	22.20	11	10	246	78.31	88.08	99.06	111.42	125.33	140.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	735.08	1,151	1,223	1,299	1,248	1,448.41	1,629.13	1,832.39	2,061.02	2,318.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-355.70	-363	-350	-388	-426	-493.52	-555.10	-624.35	-702.25	-789.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.085
Beta	1.053
Diluted Shares Outstanding	3,990
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.447
Total Debt	9,822
Total Equity	16,299.15
Total Capital	26,121.15
Debt Weighting	37.60
Equity Weighting	62.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,770.69	7,794	8,040	8,696	9,003	10,126.30	11,389.74	12,810.83	14,409.23	16,207.05
EBITDA	2,071.37	2,196	2,430	2,627	2,676	3,123.49	3,513.21	3,951.55	4,444.58	4,999.12
EBIT	1,770.65	1,728	1,868	2,044	2,091	2,487.40	2,797.75	3,146.82	3,539.45	3,981.06
Tax Rate	17.22%	23.64%	69.53%	13.89%	24.42%	29.74%	29.74%	29.74%	29.74%	29.74%
EBIAT	1,465.67	1,319.46	569.09	1,760.04	1,580.30	1,747.56	1,965.60	2,210.85	2,486.69	2,796.95
Depreciation	300.72	468	562	583	585	636.09	715.46	804.72	905.13	1,018.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-437.01	-2	-50	67	-85.64	-92.41	-103.94	-116.91	-131.49
Inventories	-	11.20	1	-236	167.69	-9.77	-10.99	-12.36	-13.90	-15.64
Accounts Payable	-	415.92	72	76	-51	200.41	180.72	203.26	228.63	257.15
Capital Expenditure	-355.70	-363	-350	-388	-426	-493.52	-555.10	-624.35	-702.25	-789.87
UFCF	1,410.69	1,414.56	852.09	1,745.04	1,923	1,995.14	2,203.28	2,478.18	2,787.38	3,135.16
WACC
PV UFCF						1,862.52	1,920.12	2,016.14	2,116.97	2,222.83
SUM PV UFCF										10,138.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.12
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,197.86
Terminal Value	62,458.29
Present Value of Terminal Value	44,283.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	54,421.61
Net Debt	9,765
Equity Value	44,656.61
Shares Outstanding	3,990
Equity Value Per Share	11.19