Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)
$4.7
-0.05 (-1.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,770.69 | 7,794 | 8,040 | 8,696 | 9,003 | 10,126.30 | 11,389.74 | 12,810.83 | 14,409.23 | 16,207.05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,071.37 | 2,196 | 2,430 | 2,627 | 2,676 | 3,123.49 | 3,513.21 | 3,951.55 | 4,444.58 | 4,999.12 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,770.65 | 1,728 | 1,868 | 2,044 | 2,091 | 2,487.40 | 2,797.75 | 3,146.82 | 3,539.45 | 3,981.06 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 300.72 | 468 | 562 | 583 | 585 | 636.09 | 715.46 | 804.72 | 905.13 | 1,018.06 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 54.43 | 106 | 71 | 191 | 57 | 121.84 | 137.04 | 154.14 | 173.37 | 195 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 232.99 | 670 | 672 | 722 | 655 | 740.64 | 833.05 | 936.98 | 1,053.89 | 1,185.38 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 22.20 | 11 | 10 | 246 | 78.31 | 88.08 | 99.06 | 111.42 | 125.33 | 140.96 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 735.08 | 1,151 | 1,223 | 1,299 | 1,248 | 1,448.41 | 1,629.13 | 1,832.39 | 2,061.02 | 2,318.17 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -355.70 | -363 | -350 | -388 | -426 | -493.52 | -555.10 | -624.35 | -702.25 | -789.87 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.7 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.041 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,990 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.42 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.25% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.187 |
Total Debt | 9,822 |
Total Equity | 18,753 |
Total Capital | 28,575 |
Debt Weighting | 34.37 |
Equity Weighting | 65.63 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,770.69 | 7,794 | 8,040 | 8,696 | 9,003 | 10,126.30 | 11,389.74 | 12,810.83 | 14,409.23 | 16,207.05 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,071.37 | 2,196 | 2,430 | 2,627 | 2,676 | 3,123.49 | 3,513.21 | 3,951.55 | 4,444.58 | 4,999.12 |
EBIT | 1,770.65 | 1,728 | 1,868 | 2,044 | 2,091 | 2,487.40 | 2,797.75 | 3,146.82 | 3,539.45 | 3,981.06 |
Tax Rate | 17.22% | 23.64% | 69.53% | 13.89% | 24.42% | 29.74% | 29.74% | 29.74% | 29.74% | 29.74% |
EBIAT | 1,465.67 | 1,319.46 | 569.09 | 1,760.04 | 1,580.30 | 1,747.56 | 1,965.60 | 2,210.85 | 2,486.69 | 2,796.95 |
Depreciation | 300.72 | 468 | 562 | 583 | 585 | 636.09 | 715.46 | 804.72 | 905.13 | 1,018.06 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -437.01 | -2 | -50 | 67 | -85.64 | -92.41 | -103.94 | -116.91 | -131.49 |
Inventories | - | 11.20 | 1 | -236 | 167.69 | -9.77 | -10.99 | -12.36 | -13.90 | -15.64 |
Accounts Payable | - | 415.92 | 72 | 76 | -51 | 200.41 | 180.72 | 203.26 | 228.63 | 257.15 |
Capital Expenditure | -355.70 | -363 | -350 | -388 | -426 | -493.52 | -555.10 | -624.35 | -702.25 | -789.87 |
UFCF | 1,410.69 | 1,414.56 | 852.09 | 1,745.04 | 1,923 | 1,995.14 | 2,203.28 | 2,478.18 | 2,787.38 | 3,135.16 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,862 | 1,919.05 | 2,014.45 | 2,114.60 | 2,219.72 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 10,129.82 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.15 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,197.86 |
Terminal Value | 62,094.46 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 43,963.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 54,093.29 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 9,765 |
Equity Value | 44,328.29 |
Shares Outstanding | 3,990 |
Equity Value Per Share | 11.11 |