Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

$4.085

-0.04 (-0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 11.19 | 4.085 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,770.697,7948,0408,6969,00310,126.3011,389.7412,810.8314,409.2316,207.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,071.372,1962,4302,6272,6763,123.493,513.213,951.554,444.584,999.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,770.651,7281,8682,0442,0912,487.402,797.753,146.823,539.453,981.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 300.72468562583585636.09715.46804.72905.131,018.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 54.431067119157121.84137.04154.14173.37195
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 232.99670672722655740.64833.05936.981,053.891,185.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 22.20111024678.3188.0899.06111.42125.33140.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 735.081,1511,2231,2991,2481,448.411,629.131,832.392,061.022,318.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -355.70-363-350-388-426-493.52-555.10-624.35-702.25-789.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.085
Beta 1.053
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,990
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.447
Total Debt 9,822
Total Equity 16,299.15
Total Capital 26,121.15
Debt Weighting 37.60
Equity Weighting 62.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,770.697,7948,0408,6969,00310,126.3011,389.7412,810.8314,409.2316,207.05
EBITDA 2,071.372,1962,4302,6272,6763,123.493,513.213,951.554,444.584,999.12
EBIT 1,770.651,7281,8682,0442,0912,487.402,797.753,146.823,539.453,981.06
Tax Rate 17.22%23.64%69.53%13.89%24.42%29.74%29.74%29.74%29.74%29.74%
EBIAT 1,465.671,319.46569.091,760.041,580.301,747.561,965.602,210.852,486.692,796.95
Depreciation 300.72468562583585636.09715.46804.72905.131,018.06
Accounts Receivable --437.01-2-5067-85.64-92.41-103.94-116.91-131.49
Inventories -11.201-236167.69-9.77-10.99-12.36-13.90-15.64
Accounts Payable -415.927276-51200.41180.72203.26228.63257.15
Capital Expenditure -355.70-363-350-388-426-493.52-555.10-624.35-702.25-789.87
UFCF 1,410.691,414.56852.091,745.041,9231,995.142,203.282,478.182,787.383,135.16
WACC
PV UFCF 1,862.521,920.122,016.142,116.972,222.83
SUM PV UFCF 10,138.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,197.86
Terminal Value 62,458.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 44,283.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 54,421.61
Net Debt 9,765
Equity Value 44,656.61
Shares Outstanding 3,990
Equity Value Per Share 11.19