Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE)

$122.54

+3.05 (+2.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 40.04 | 122.54 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,861.702,112.302,357.502,6532,985.543,359.763,780.894,254.814,788.135,388.306,063.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 140.90159.60184.40202.92228.35256.98289.19325.44366.23412.13463.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 97.80107.30124.90138.23155.56175.06197221.69249.48280.75315.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 43.1052.3059.5064.6972.8081.9292.19103.75116.75131.38147.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 16.7017.301922.3025.1028.2431.7835.7740.2545.3050.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 222.60295.30290.40338.30380.71428.43482.13542.56610.57687.10773.22
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 338.30411.70427.10493.27555.10624.68702.98791.09890.251,001.841,127.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 124.10184.60162.20197.08221.78249.58280.86316.07355.68400.27450.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -16-19.90-21.40-23.96-26.96-30.34-34.14-38.42-43.24-48.66-54.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 122.54
Beta 1.370
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.957
Total Debt 606.90
Total Equity 5,612.99
Total Capital 6,219.89
Debt Weighting 9.76
Equity Weighting 90.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,861.702,112.302,357.502,6532,985.543,359.763,780.894,254.814,788.135,388.306,063.70
EBITDA 140.90159.60184.40202.92228.35256.98289.19325.44366.23412.13463.79
EBIT 97.80107.30124.90138.23155.56175.06197221.69249.48280.75315.94
Tax Rate 24.79%1.73%15.08%15.83%18.48%19.05%15.83%15.83%15.83%15.83%15.83%
EBIAT 73.55105.45106.06116.35126.81141.71165.82186.60209.99236.31265.94
Depreciation 43.1052.3059.5064.6972.8081.9292.19103.75116.75131.38147.85
Accounts Receivable --72.704.90-47.90-42.40-47.72-53.70-60.43-68.01-76.53-86.12
Inventories --73.40-15.40-66.17-61.83-69.58-78.30-88.11-99.16-111.59-125.58
Accounts Payable -60.50-22.4034.8824.7027.8031.2835.2039.6244.5850.17
Capital Expenditure -16-19.90-21.40-23.96-25.80-37-34.14-38.42-43.24-48.66-54.76
UFCF 100.6552.25111.2677.8993.11103.79123.15138.58155.95175.50197.50
WACC
PV UFCF 85.0893.1195.01103.19106.31109.51112.82116.22
SUM PV UFCF 598.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 201.45
Terminal Value 2,782.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,788.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,387.30
Net Debt 553.20
Equity Value 1,834.10
Shares Outstanding 45.81
Equity Value Per Share 40.04