Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)

$154.69

+3.60 (+2.38%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 487.68 | 154.69 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,357.10	7,838	7,801	8,002.70	7,998.90	8,170.93	8,346.65	8,526.16	8,709.53	8,896.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,448.20	1,355.80	1,662.40	1,801.50	1,463.80	1,619.53	1,654.36	1,689.94	1,726.29	1,763.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,035.10	909.50	1,215.90	1,349	1,004.70	1,154.99	1,179.83	1,205.20	1,231.12	1,257.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	413.10	446.30	446.50	452.50	459.10	464.54	474.53	484.74	495.16	505.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	192.60	101.30	391.10	334.30	169.90	248.81	254.16	259.62	265.21	270.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	385.60	503.80	551.40	533.70	524.70	522.38	533.62	545.09	556.81	568.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	854.40	910.30	895.30	959.90	1,089.30	985.69	1,006.89	1,028.54	1,050.66	1,073.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	512.10	591	782	1,034.10	1,193.30	855.75	874.15	892.95	912.16	931.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-321.90	-359.80	-269.30	-306.70	-417.50	-350.86	-358.40	-366.11	-373.98	-382.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 154.69
Beta	0.214
Diluted Shares Outstanding	108.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.14
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	4.388
Total Debt	4,606.90
Total Equity	16,768.40
Total Capital	21,375.30
Debt Weighting	21.55
Equity Weighting	78.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	7,357.10	7,838	7,801	8,002.70	7,998.90	8,170.93	8,346.65	8,526.16	8,709.53	8,896.84
EBITDA	1,448.20	1,355.80	1,662.40	1,801.50	1,463.80	1,619.53	1,654.36	1,689.94	1,726.29	1,763.41
EBIT	1,035.10	909.50	1,215.90	1,349	1,004.70	1,154.99	1,179.83	1,205.20	1,231.12	1,257.60
Tax Rate	-55.47%	26.68%	24.08%	25.22%	25.14%	9.13%	9.13%	9.13%	9.13%	9.13%
EBIAT	1,609.27	666.83	923.15	1,008.73	752.16	1,049.54	1,072.12	1,095.17	1,118.73	1,142.79
Depreciation	413.10	446.30	446.50	452.50	459.10	464.54	474.53	484.74	495.16	505.81
Accounts Receivable	-	-118.20	-47.60	17.70	9	2.32	-11.23	-11.48	-11.72	-11.98
Inventories	-	-55.90	15	-64.60	-129.40	103.61	-21.20	-21.65	-22.12	-22.60
Accounts Payable	-	78.90	191	252.10	159.20	-337.55	18.40	18.80	19.20	19.62
Capital Expenditure	-321.90	-359.80	-269.30	-306.70	-417.50	-350.86	-358.40	-366.11	-373.98	-382.03
UFCF	1,700.47	658.13	1,258.75	1,359.73	832.56	931.61	1,174.22	1,199.47	1,225.27	1,251.62
WACC
PV UFCF						895.69	1,085.42	1,066.02	1,046.96	1,028.24
SUM PV UFCF										5,122.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.01
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,276.65
Terminal Value	63,514.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	52,179.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	57,301.82
Net Debt	4,437
Equity Value	52,864.82
Shares Outstanding	108.40
Equity Value Per Share	487.68