Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR)
$29.78
-0.13 (-0.43%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,239 | 5,340 | 5,407 | 5,509 | 5,448 | 5,501.96 | 5,556.45 | 5,611.48 | 5,667.06 | 5,723.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,472 | 2,177 | 2,368 | 2,522 | 2,516 | 2,251.64 | 2,273.94 | 2,296.46 | 2,319.21 | 2,342.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 457 | 1,136 | 1,148 | 1,301 | 1,286 | 1,083.33 | 1,094.05 | 1,104.89 | 1,115.83 | 1,126.89 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,015 | 1,041 | 1,220 | 1,221 | 1,230 | 1,168.31 | 1,179.88 | 1,191.57 | 1,203.37 | 1,215.29 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 384 | 1,446 | 763 | 355 | 421 | 689.85 | 696.68 | 703.58 | 710.55 | 717.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 438 | 517 | 527 | 653 | 606 | 558.62 | 564.15 | 569.74 | 575.38 | 581.08 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 101 | 86 | 60 | 63 | 92 | 82.31 | 83.13 | 83.95 | 84.78 | 85.62 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 98 | 114 | 82 | 112 | 133 | 110 | 111.09 | 112.19 | 113.30 | 114.42 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,332 | -1,298 | -1,151 | -1,017 | -1,096 | -1,206 | -1,217.94 | -1,230.01 | -1,242.19 | -1,254.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 29.78 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.369 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 505 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.37% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.259 |
| Total Debt | 5,883 |
| Total Equity | 15,038.90 |
| Total Capital | 20,921.90 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 71.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,239 | 5,340 | 5,407 | 5,509 | 5,448 | 5,501.96 | 5,556.45 | 5,611.48 | 5,667.06 | 5,723.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,472 | 2,177 | 2,368 | 2,522 | 2,516 | 2,251.64 | 2,273.94 | 2,296.46 | 2,319.21 | 2,342.18 |
| EBIT | 457 | 1,136 | 1,148 | 1,301 | 1,286 | 1,083.33 | 1,094.05 | 1,104.89 | 1,115.83 | 1,126.89 |
| Tax Rate | 71.29% | 14.10% | 20.65% | 4.46% | 25.17% | 27.13% | 27.13% | 27.13% | 27.13% | 27.13% |
| EBIAT | 131.20 | 975.81 | 910.98 | 1,243.01 | 962.30 | 789.38 | 797.20 | 805.10 | 813.07 | 821.12 |
| Depreciation | 1,015 | 1,041 | 1,220 | 1,221 | 1,230 | 1,168.31 | 1,179.88 | 1,191.57 | 1,203.37 | 1,215.29 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -79 | -10 | -126 | 47 | 47.38 | -5.53 | -5.59 | -5.64 | -5.70 |
| Inventories | - | 15 | 26 | -3 | -29 | 9.69 | -0.82 | -0.82 | -0.83 | -0.84 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 16 | -32 | 30 | 21 | -23 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,332 | -1,298 | -1,151 | -1,017 | -1,096 | -1,206 | -1,217.94 | -1,230.01 | -1,242.19 | -1,254.49 |
| UFCF | -185.80 | 670.81 | 963.99 | 1,348.01 | 1,135.30 | 785.76 | 753.88 | 761.35 | 768.89 | 776.50 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 750.28 | 687.32 | 662.78 | 639.12 | 616.29 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 3,355.79 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 792.03 |
| Terminal Value | 29,012.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 23,026.40 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 26,382.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,462 |
| Equity Value | 20,920.19 |
| Shares Outstanding | 505 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 41.43 |