Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Beauty Health Company (SKIN)

$12.11

+0.25 (+2.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -81.65 | 12.11 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 166.62119.09260.09365.88525.08753.561,081.461,552.042,227.38
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 28.10-2.68-355.2670-135-193.74-278.05-399.04-572.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 14.16-17.21-365.5758.42-171.36-245.93-352.94-506.52-726.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.9414.5310.3111.5836.3652.1974.89107.48154.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7.319.49901.89568.20675.27969.101,390.791,995.972,864.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 23.7223.1951.4276.4997.64140.13201.11288.62414.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 19.4423.2035.26116.43100.46144.17206.90296.93426.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 14.2618.4929.0530.3357.1582.02117.71168.93242.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10.42-3.820.320.09-12.22-17.54-25.18-36.13-51.85
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.11
Beta 1.153
Diluted Shares Outstanding 148.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.824
Total Debt 751.79
Total Equity 1,798.41
Total Capital 2,550.20
Debt Weighting 29.48
Equity Weighting 70.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 166.62119.09260.09365.88525.08753.561,081.461,552.042,227.38
EBITDA 28.10-2.68-355.2670-135-193.74-278.05-399.04-572.67
EBIT 14.16-17.21-365.5758.42-171.36-245.93-352.94-506.52-726.92
Tax Rate 44.19%24.19%0.59%1.44%17.60%17.60%17.60%17.60%17.60%
EBIAT 7.90-13.05-363.4057.58-141.20-202.64-290.81-417.36-598.96
Depreciation 13.9414.5310.3111.5836.3652.1974.89107.48154.25
Accounts Receivable -0.53-28.24-25.07-21.15-42.49-60.98-87.51-125.59
Inventories --3.77-12.06-81.1715.97-43.71-62.73-90.03-129.20
Accounts Payable -4.2310.561.2926.8224.8735.6951.2273.51
Capital Expenditure -10.42-3.820.320.09-12.22-17.54-25.18-36.13-51.85
UFCF 11.42-1.34-382.50-35.70-95.42-229.33-329.11-472.32-677.85
WACC
PV UFCF -95.42-214.85-288.86-388.38-522.18
SUM PV UFCF -1,414.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) -691.40
Terminal Value -14,586.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -10,527.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -11,941.68
Net Debt 183.59
Equity Value -12,125.27
Shares Outstanding 148.51
Equity Value Per Share -81.65