Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)

$11.26

-0.16 (-1.40%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -36.89 | 11.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,240.85	1,577.30	1,474.48	845.88	1,103.88	1,127.24	1,151.09	1,175.44	1,200.32	1,225.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	167.87	-159.38	-332.76	61.33	195.77	13.17	13.45	13.73	14.02	14.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	167.87	-159.38	-332.76	-94.23	34.64	-172.76	-176.41	-180.14	-183.96	-187.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	-	155.57	161.13	185.93	189.86	193.88	197.98	202.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	384.57	202.50	185.74	150.92	239.42	216.34	220.91	225.59	230.36	235.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	212.59	215.49	182.24	206.93	202.76	193.85	197.95	202.14	206.42	210.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	92.38	162.09	124.43	104.68	115.71	110.51	112.85	115.24	117.67	120.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	148.77	178.80	181.03	90.56	134.49	131.87	134.66	137.51	140.42	143.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-388.21	-349.86	-122.29	-34.92	-30.52	-154.78	-158.05	-161.40	-164.81	-168.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.26
Beta	2.746
Diluted Shares Outstanding	73.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.94
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	15.852
Total Debt	1,301.02
Total Equity	829.12
Total Capital	2,130.14
Debt Weighting	61.08
Equity Weighting	38.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,240.85	1,577.30	1,474.48	845.88	1,103.88	1,127.24	1,151.09	1,175.44	1,200.32	1,225.71
EBITDA	167.87	-159.38	-332.76	61.33	195.77	13.17	13.45	13.73	14.02	14.32
EBIT	167.87	-159.38	-332.76	-94.23	34.64	-172.76	-176.41	-180.14	-183.96	-187.85
Tax Rate	-6.36%	12.67%	23.27%	34.86%	8.94%	14.68%	14.68%	14.68%	14.68%	14.68%
EBIAT	178.54	-139.18	-255.31	-61.39	31.54	-147.40	-150.52	-153.70	-156.95	-160.28
Depreciation	-	-	-	155.57	161.13	185.93	189.86	193.88	197.98	202.17
Accounts Receivable	-	-2.90	33.25	-24.70	4.17	8.91	-4.10	-4.19	-4.28	-4.37
Inventories	-	-69.71	37.66	19.75	-11.03	5.20	-2.34	-2.39	-2.44	-2.49
Accounts Payable	-	30.03	2.23	-90.47	43.93	-2.62	2.79	2.85	2.91	2.97
Capital Expenditure	-388.21	-349.86	-122.29	-34.92	-30.52	-154.78	-158.05	-161.40	-164.81	-168.30
UFCF	-209.67	-531.62	-304.47	-36.15	199.23	-104.76	-122.36	-124.95	-127.59	-130.29
WACC
PV UFCF						-95.92	-102.59	-95.93	-89.70	-83.87
SUM PV UFCF										-468.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.21
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-132.90
Terminal Value	-1,843.22
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,186.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,654.50
Net Debt	1,061.59
Equity Value	-2,716.09
Shares Outstanding	73.63
Equity Value Per Share	-36.89