Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)

$11.26

-0.16 (-1.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -36.89 | 11.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,240.851,577.301,474.48845.881,103.881,127.241,151.091,175.441,200.321,225.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 167.87-159.38-332.7661.33195.7713.1713.4513.7314.0214.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 167.87-159.38-332.76-94.2334.64-172.76-176.41-180.14-183.96-187.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---155.57161.13185.93189.86193.88197.98202.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 384.57202.50185.74150.92239.42216.34220.91225.59230.36235.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 212.59215.49182.24206.93202.76193.85197.95202.14206.42210.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 92.38162.09124.43104.68115.71110.51112.85115.24117.67120.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 148.77178.80181.0390.56134.49131.87134.66137.51140.42143.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -388.21-349.86-122.29-34.92-30.52-154.78-158.05-161.40-164.81-168.30
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.26
Beta 2.746
Diluted Shares Outstanding 73.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.852
Total Debt 1,301.02
Total Equity 829.12
Total Capital 2,130.14
Debt Weighting 61.08
Equity Weighting 38.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,240.851,577.301,474.48845.881,103.881,127.241,151.091,175.441,200.321,225.71
EBITDA 167.87-159.38-332.7661.33195.7713.1713.4513.7314.0214.32
EBIT 167.87-159.38-332.76-94.2334.64-172.76-176.41-180.14-183.96-187.85
Tax Rate -6.36%12.67%23.27%34.86%8.94%14.68%14.68%14.68%14.68%14.68%
EBIAT 178.54-139.18-255.31-61.3931.54-147.40-150.52-153.70-156.95-160.28
Depreciation ---155.57161.13185.93189.86193.88197.98202.17
Accounts Receivable --2.9033.25-24.704.178.91-4.10-4.19-4.28-4.37
Inventories --69.7137.6619.75-11.035.20-2.34-2.39-2.44-2.49
Accounts Payable -30.032.23-90.4743.93-2.622.792.852.912.97
Capital Expenditure -388.21-349.86-122.29-34.92-30.52-154.78-158.05-161.40-164.81-168.30
UFCF -209.67-531.62-304.47-36.15199.23-104.76-122.36-124.95-127.59-130.29
WACC
PV UFCF -95.92-102.59-95.93-89.70-83.87
SUM PV UFCF -468.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) -132.90
Terminal Value -1,843.22
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,186.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,654.50
Net Debt 1,061.59
Equity Value -2,716.09
Shares Outstanding 73.63
Equity Value Per Share -36.89