Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Stabilis Solutions, Inc. (SLNG)

$5.71

-0.12 (-2.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -418.08 | 5.71 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47.137.5947.0741.5577.17175.59399.54909.132,068.694,707.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -3.26-1.734.883.463.02-2.48-5.63-12.82-29.17-66.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -4.10-2.24-4.39-5.58-6.04-24.17-55.01-125.17-284.82-648.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.840.529.279.049.0621.7049.37112.35255.65581.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2.342.123.981.812.0617.0138.7088.06200.38455.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.501.257.607.1811.2731.9972.78165.61376.84857.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.330.070.210.230.391.834.179.4821.5749.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 12.330.264.734.395.5620.1645.88104.40237.57540.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.41-0.26-2.12-0.77-7.81-7.28-16.56-37.68-85.74-195.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.71
Beta 0.881
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.56
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.725
Total Debt 13.04
Total Equity 99.95
Total Capital 112.99
Debt Weighting 11.54
Equity Weighting 88.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 47.137.5947.0741.5577.17175.59399.54909.132,068.694,707.21
EBITDA -3.26-1.734.883.463.02-2.48-5.63-12.82-29.17-66.37
EBIT -4.10-2.24-4.39-5.58-6.04-24.17-55.01-125.17-284.82-648.09
Tax Rate 57.01%-86.64%-5.99%-3.94%-11.56%-10.22%-10.22%-10.22%-10.22%-10.22%
EBIAT -1.76-4.18-4.65-5.80-6.74-26.65-60.63-137.97-313.94-714.35
Depreciation 0.840.529.279.049.0621.7049.37112.35255.65581.72
Accounts Receivable -11.24-6.340.42-4.09-20.72-40.80-92.83-211.23-480.64
Inventories -1.26-0.14-0.02-0.16-1.44-2.33-5.31-12.09-27.51
Accounts Payable --12.074.47-0.331.1614.6125.7258.52133.16303.01
Capital Expenditure -0.41-0.26-2.12-0.77-7.81-7.28-16.56-37.68-85.74-195.11
UFCF -1.33-3.500.482.54-8.58-19.78-45.23-102.92-234.19-532.88
WACC
PV UFCF -18.37-39.02-82.45-174.25-368.26
SUM PV UFCF -682.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) -543.54
Terminal Value -9,586.22
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,624.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -7,307.17
Net Debt 10.98
Equity Value -7,318.15
Shares Outstanding 17.50
Equity Value Per Share -418.08