Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SM Energy Company (SM)

$44.5

+0.73 (+1.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 37.42 | 44.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,589.241,126.582,597.923,345.912,363.892,960.373,707.354,642.835,814.357,281.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 882.38566.441,919.702,568.981,628.161,926.322,412.383,021.103,783.414,738.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -71.94-792.81206.522,568.38937.68292.95366.86459.43575.36720.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 954.321,359.251,713.180.60690.481,633.372,045.522,561.663,208.054,017.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 0.010.01332.72445616.16308.91386.86484.47606.72759.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 184.73162.45247.20233.30231.16309.72387.87485.74608.31761.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 55.1831.2024.1048.6856.4465.2081.65102.25128.06160.37
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 52.0963.0125.0743.90107.3292.88116.32145.67182.42228.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,026.35-555.66-678.16-879.93-1,099.34-1,260-1,577.94-1,976.10-2,474.73-3,099.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.5
Beta 4.203
Diluted Shares Outstanding 119.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.54
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 23.997
Total Debt 1,575.33
Total Equity 5,306.18
Total Capital 6,881.51
Debt Weighting 22.89
Equity Weighting 77.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,589.241,126.582,597.923,345.912,363.892,960.373,707.354,642.835,814.357,281.48
EBITDA 882.38566.441,919.702,568.981,628.161,926.322,412.383,021.103,783.414,738.07
EBIT -71.94-792.81206.522,568.38937.68292.95366.86459.43575.36720.54
Tax Rate 19.06%20.08%21.53%20.33%10.54%18.31%18.31%18.31%18.31%18.31%
EBIAT -58.23-633.63162.062,046.12838.88239.31299.70375.32470.03588.63
Depreciation 954.321,359.251,713.180.60690.481,633.372,045.522,561.663,208.054,017.53
Accounts Receivable -22.28-84.7513.902.13-78.55-78.15-97.87-122.57-153.49
Inventories -23.987.11-24.58-7.77-8.76-16.45-20.60-25.80-32.31
Accounts Payable -10.91-37.9318.8363.42-14.4323.4429.3536.7646.03
Capital Expenditure -1,026.35-555.66-678.16-879.93-1,099.34-1,260-1,577.94-1,976.10-2,474.73-3,099.17
UFCF -130.26227.141,081.511,174.94487.81510.94696.12871.771,091.741,367.21
WACC
PV UFCF 426.85485.84508.30531.79556.37
SUM PV UFCF 2,509.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 19.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,374.05
Terminal Value 7,156.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,912.26

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,421.41
Net Debt 959.17
Equity Value 4,462.24
Shares Outstanding 119.24
Equity Value Per Share 37.42