Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC)

$51

-0.41 (-0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 216.84 | 51 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 74.6785.8394.89112.73124.77141.92161.42183.61208.84237.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 48.1065.7266.9081.9274.6497.63111.05126.32143.68163.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.5260.6561.3576.4968.7289.84102.19116.24132.21150.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.585.075.555.425.927.798.8610.0811.4713.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 174.60201.90231.74331.59326.95360.32409.84466.17530.24603.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.9910.1912.1210.082,697.25626.16712.22810.10921.441,048.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.6514.9913.8013.5316.9219.2521.9024.9128.3332.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.14-7.70-4.30-2.86-5.89-6.71-7.63-8.67-9.87-11.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51
Beta 0.968
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.26
After-tax Cost of Debt 17.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.335
Total Debt 61.01
Total Equity 459.59
Total Capital 520.60
Debt Weighting 11.72
Equity Weighting 88.28
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 74.6785.8394.89112.73124.77141.92161.42183.61208.84237.54
EBITDA 48.1065.7266.9081.9274.6497.63111.05126.32143.68163.42
EBIT 43.5260.6561.3576.4968.7289.84102.19116.24132.21150.38
Tax Rate 27.16%19.60%20.00%20.98%21.26%21.80%21.80%21.80%21.80%21.80%
EBIAT 31.7048.7649.0860.4554.1170.2679.9190.90103.39117.60
Depreciation 4.585.075.555.425.927.798.8610.0811.4713.04
Accounts Receivable --2.20-1.932.04-2,687.172,071.09-86.06-97.89-111.34-126.64
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -7.33-1.19-0.273.392.332.653.013.423.89
Capital Expenditure -2.14-7.70-4.30-2.86-5.89-6.71-7.63-8.67-9.87-11.22
UFCF 34.1451.2847.2164.79-2,629.642,144.76-2.26-2.57-2.93-3.33
WACC
PV UFCF 1,961.01-1.89-1.97-2.05-2.13
SUM PV UFCF 1,952.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3.40
Terminal Value -46.09
Present Value of Terminal Value -29.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,923.53
Net Debt -30.57
Equity Value 1,954.09
Shares Outstanding 9.01
Equity Value Per Share 216.84