Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC)
$51
-0.41 (-0.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 74.67 | 85.83 | 94.89 | 112.73 | 124.77 | 141.92 | 161.42 | 183.61 | 208.84 | 237.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 48.10 | 65.72 | 66.90 | 81.92 | 74.64 | 97.63 | 111.05 | 126.32 | 143.68 | 163.42 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 43.52 | 60.65 | 61.35 | 76.49 | 68.72 | 89.84 | 102.19 | 116.24 | 132.21 | 150.38 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.58 | 5.07 | 5.55 | 5.42 | 5.92 | 7.79 | 8.86 | 10.08 | 11.47 | 13.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 174.60 | 201.90 | 231.74 | 331.59 | 326.95 | 360.32 | 409.84 | 466.17 | 530.24 | 603.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.99 | 10.19 | 12.12 | 10.08 | 2,697.25 | 626.16 | 712.22 | 810.10 | 921.44 | 1,048.08 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7.65 | 14.99 | 13.80 | 13.53 | 16.92 | 19.25 | 21.90 | 24.91 | 28.33 | 32.22 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.14 | -7.70 | -4.30 | -2.86 | -5.89 | -6.71 | -7.63 | -8.67 | -9.87 | -11.22 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 51 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.968 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.01 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.26 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 17.17% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.335 |
| Total Debt | 61.01 |
| Total Equity | 459.59 |
| Total Capital | 520.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 11.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 88.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 74.67 | 85.83 | 94.89 | 112.73 | 124.77 | 141.92 | 161.42 | 183.61 | 208.84 | 237.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 48.10 | 65.72 | 66.90 | 81.92 | 74.64 | 97.63 | 111.05 | 126.32 | 143.68 | 163.42 |
| EBIT | 43.52 | 60.65 | 61.35 | 76.49 | 68.72 | 89.84 | 102.19 | 116.24 | 132.21 | 150.38 |
| Tax Rate | 27.16% | 19.60% | 20.00% | 20.98% | 21.26% | 21.80% | 21.80% | 21.80% | 21.80% | 21.80% |
| EBIAT | 31.70 | 48.76 | 49.08 | 60.45 | 54.11 | 70.26 | 79.91 | 90.90 | 103.39 | 117.60 |
| Depreciation | 4.58 | 5.07 | 5.55 | 5.42 | 5.92 | 7.79 | 8.86 | 10.08 | 11.47 | 13.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.20 | -1.93 | 2.04 | -2,687.17 | 2,071.09 | -86.06 | -97.89 | -111.34 | -126.64 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 7.33 | -1.19 | -0.27 | 3.39 | 2.33 | 2.65 | 3.01 | 3.42 | 3.89 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.14 | -7.70 | -4.30 | -2.86 | -5.89 | -6.71 | -7.63 | -8.67 | -9.87 | -11.22 |
| UFCF | 34.14 | 51.28 | 47.21 | 64.79 | -2,629.64 | 2,144.76 | -2.26 | -2.57 | -2.93 | -3.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,961.01 | -1.89 | -1.97 | -2.05 | -2.13 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,952.98 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.37 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3.40 |
| Terminal Value | -46.09 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -29.45 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,923.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -30.57 |
| Equity Value | 1,954.09 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.01 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 216.84 |