Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
$54.36
+1.82 (+3.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 587.85 | 627.20 | 547.51 | 595.12 | 740.86 | 791.19 | 844.93 | 902.33 | 963.63 | 1,029.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 114.80 | 128.40 | 93.39 | 104.53 | 181.60 | 156.87 | 167.52 | 178.90 | 191.06 | 204.04 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 65.80 | 78.76 | 53.81 | 68.68 | 146.29 | 102.64 | 109.61 | 117.06 | 125.01 | 133.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 49 | 49.64 | 39.58 | 35.86 | 35.30 | 54.23 | 57.91 | 61.84 | 66.05 | 70.53 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 307.92 | 312.12 | 293.32 | 268.89 | 279.60 | 377.62 | 403.28 | 430.67 | 459.93 | 491.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 53.18 | 79.22 | 61.93 | 70.43 | 71.51 | 86.20 | 92.06 | 98.31 | 104.99 | 112.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 71.07 | 63.68 | 73.01 | 87.49 | 114 | 103.91 | 110.97 | 118.51 | 126.56 | 135.16 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 37.21 | 43.18 | 48.01 | 50.19 | 50.70 | 58.96 | 62.96 | 67.24 | 71.81 | 76.69 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -35.46 | -17.05 | -23.06 | -32.73 | -26.18 | -34.81 | -37.17 | -39.70 | -42.39 | -45.27 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 54.36 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.530 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 66.06 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.101 |
| Total Debt | 175.65 |
| Total Equity | 3,590.97 |
| Total Capital | 3,766.62 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.66 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.34 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 587.85 | 627.20 | 547.51 | 595.12 | 740.86 | 791.19 | 844.93 | 902.33 | 963.63 | 1,029.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 114.80 | 128.40 | 93.39 | 104.53 | 181.60 | 156.87 | 167.52 | 178.90 | 191.06 | 204.04 |
| EBIT | 65.80 | 78.76 | 53.81 | 68.68 | 146.29 | 102.64 | 109.61 | 117.06 | 125.01 | 133.50 |
| Tax Rate | 40.01% | 0.69% | 28.52% | 4.88% | 9.64% | 16.75% | 16.75% | 16.75% | 16.75% | 16.75% |
| EBIAT | 39.48 | 78.22 | 38.46 | 65.33 | 132.19 | 85.45 | 91.26 | 97.46 | 104.08 | 111.15 |
| Depreciation | 49 | 49.64 | 39.58 | 35.86 | 35.30 | 54.23 | 57.91 | 61.84 | 66.05 | 70.53 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -26.04 | 17.30 | -8.51 | -1.07 | -14.69 | -5.86 | -6.25 | -6.68 | -7.13 |
| Inventories | - | 7.39 | -9.33 | -14.48 | -26.51 | 10.09 | -7.06 | -7.54 | -8.05 | -8.60 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 5.98 | 4.83 | 2.18 | 0.51 | 8.26 | 4.01 | 4.28 | 4.57 | 4.88 |
| Capital Expenditure | -35.46 | -17.05 | -23.06 | -32.73 | -26.18 | -34.81 | -37.17 | -39.70 | -42.39 | -45.27 |
| UFCF | 53.01 | 98.13 | 67.78 | 47.64 | 114.24 | 108.53 | 103.09 | 110.09 | 117.57 | 125.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 98.89 | 85.58 | 83.28 | 81.04 | 78.85 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 427.64 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.75 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 128.07 |
| Terminal Value | 1,652.48 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,037.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,465.44 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -103.95 |
| Equity Value | 1,569.39 |
| Shares Outstanding | 66.06 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 23.76 |