Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Semtech Corporation (SMTC)

$29.87

+0.41 (+1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 21.15 | 29.87 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 587.85627.20547.51595.12740.86791.19844.93902.33963.631,029.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 114.80128.4093.39104.53181.60156.87167.52178.90191.06204.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 65.8078.7653.8168.68146.29102.64109.61117.06125.01133.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4949.6439.5835.8635.3054.2357.9161.8466.0570.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 307.92312.12293.32268.89279.60377.62403.28430.67459.93491.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 53.1879.2261.9370.4371.5186.2092.0698.31104.99112.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 71.0763.6873.0187.49114103.91110.97118.51126.56135.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 37.2143.1848.0150.1950.7058.9662.9667.2471.8176.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -35.46-17.05-23.06-32.73-26.18-34.81-37.17-39.70-42.39-45.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.87
Beta 1.593
Diluted Shares Outstanding 66.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.484
Total Debt 175.65
Total Equity 1,973.18
Total Capital 2,148.84
Debt Weighting 8.17
Equity Weighting 91.83
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 587.85627.20547.51595.12740.86791.19844.93902.33963.631,029.09
EBITDA 114.80128.4093.39104.53181.60156.87167.52178.90191.06204.04
EBIT 65.8078.7653.8168.68146.29102.64109.61117.06125.01133.50
Tax Rate 40.01%0.69%28.52%4.88%9.64%16.75%16.75%16.75%16.75%16.75%
EBIAT 39.4878.2238.4665.33132.1985.4591.2697.46104.08111.15
Depreciation 4949.6439.5835.8635.3054.2357.9161.8466.0570.53
Accounts Receivable --26.0417.30-8.51-1.07-14.69-5.86-6.25-6.68-7.13
Inventories -7.39-9.33-14.48-26.5110.09-7.06-7.54-8.05-8.60
Accounts Payable -5.984.832.180.518.264.014.284.574.88
Capital Expenditure -35.46-17.05-23.06-32.73-26.18-34.81-37.17-39.70-42.39-45.27
UFCF 53.0198.1367.7847.64114.24108.53103.09110.09117.57125.56
WACC
PV UFCF 97.9984.0381.0278.1275.32
SUM PV UFCF 416.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 128.07
Terminal Value 1,461.95
Present Value of Terminal Value 877.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,293.52
Net Debt -103.95
Equity Value 1,397.47
Shares Outstanding 66.06
Equity Value Per Share 21.15