Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Smart Sand, Inc. (SND)

$2.14

+0.03 (+1.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8.44 | 2.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 137.21212.47233.07122.34126.65133.16140147.19154.76162.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 19.6944.2470.8849.99-31.6121.7022.8223.9925.2226.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 19.1726.0843.0527.07-57.715.665.956.266.586.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.5318.1627.8222.9226.1016.0416.8617.7318.6419.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 34.741.472.6411.7325.5915.1615.9416.7617.6218.53
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25.3726.8164.8269.8524.1835.9837.8339.7741.8243.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.0918.5821.4219.1415.0213.8614.5815.3316.1116.94
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 26.1211.343.963.278.489.449.9210.4310.9711.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -51.16-96.09-25.53-8.62-31.82-33.46-35.18-36.99-38.89-40.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.14
Beta 1.410
Diluted Shares Outstanding 40.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.11
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.545
Total Debt 55.20
Total Equity 86.16
Total Capital 141.36
Debt Weighting 39.05
Equity Weighting 60.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 137.21212.47233.07122.34126.65133.16140147.19154.76162.71
EBITDA 19.6944.2470.8849.99-31.6121.7022.8223.9925.2226.52
EBIT 19.1726.0843.0527.07-57.715.665.956.266.586.92
Tax Rate -15.01%21.51%19.80%-51.97%15.11%-2.11%-2.11%-2.11%-2.11%-2.11%
EBIAT 22.0420.4734.5341.13-48.995.786.086.396.727.07
Depreciation 0.5318.1627.8222.9226.1016.0416.8617.7318.6419.60
Accounts Receivable --1.44-38.01-5.0345.66-11.80-1.85-1.94-2.04-2.15
Inventories --9.48-2.842.284.111.16-0.71-0.75-0.79-0.83
Accounts Payable --14.79-7.37-0.695.210.960.490.510.540.56
Capital Expenditure -51.16-96.09-25.52-8.62-31.82-33.46-35.18-36.99-38.89-40.89
UFCF -28.59-83.17-11.4051.990.27-21.32-14.31-15.05-15.82-16.64
WACC
PV UFCF -19.92-12.50-12.28-12.07-11.86
SUM PV UFCF -68.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) -16.97
Terminal Value -338.70
Present Value of Terminal Value -241.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -310
Net Debt 29.61
Equity Value -339.61
Shares Outstanding 40.26
Equity Value Per Share -8.44