Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sogeclair SA (SOG.PA)
19.95 €
+0.25 (+1.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 147.32 | 159.44 | 184.97 | 123.05 | 121.04 | 117.75 | 114.55 | 111.44 | 108.41 | 105.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 12.59 | 12.42 | 15.68 | 2.01 | 4.97 | 7.19 | 7 | 6.81 | 6.62 | 6.44 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 8.80 | 8.56 | 8 | -13.69 | 4.52 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.78 | 3.86 | 7.67 | 15.69 | 0.46 | 5.24 | 5.10 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 4.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 24.22 | 19.47 | 18.96 | 45.88 | 27.84 | 23.36 | 22.72 | 22.10 | 21.50 | 20.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 8.65 | 12.13 | 12.56 | 10.85 | 10.76 | 8.94 | 8.70 | 8.46 | 8.23 | 8.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 13.30 | 18.70 | 21.18 | 15.78 | 15.68 | 13.65 | 13.28 | 12.92 | 12.57 | 12.23 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.36 | -4.26 | -3.64 | -3.92 | -4.49 | -3.41 | -3.32 | -3.23 | -3.14 | -3.06 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.95 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.653 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 43.21 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.12% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.300 |
| Total Debt | 29.75 |
| Total Equity | 2,144.35 |
| Total Capital | 2,174.10 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 147.32 | 159.44 | 184.97 | 123.05 | 121.04 | 117.75 | 114.55 | 111.44 | 108.41 | 105.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 12.59 | 12.42 | 15.68 | 2.01 | 4.97 | 7.19 | 7 | 6.81 | 6.62 | 6.44 |
| EBIT | 8.80 | 8.56 | 8 | -13.69 | 4.52 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| Tax Rate | 34.33% | 21.66% | 36.41% | 2.84% | 43.21% | 27.69% | 27.69% | 27.69% | 27.69% | 27.69% |
| EBIAT | 5.78 | 6.70 | 5.09 | -13.30 | 2.56 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.26 |
| Depreciation | 3.78 | 3.86 | 7.67 | 15.69 | 0.46 | 5.24 | 5.10 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 4.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -3.48 | -0.44 | 1.72 | 0.09 | 1.81 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 5.40 | 2.48 | -5.40 | -0.10 | -2.02 | -0.37 | -0.36 | -0.35 | -0.34 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.36 | -4.26 | -3.64 | -3.92 | -4.49 | -3.41 | -3.32 | -3.23 | -3.14 | -3.06 |
| UFCF | 5.21 | 8.22 | 11.17 | -5.21 | -1.47 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.94 | 2.86 | 2.79 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 2.73 | 2.45 | 2.14 | 1.88 | 1.64 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 10.83 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2.84 |
| Terminal Value | 31.01 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 18.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 29.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1.92 |
| Equity Value | 27.19 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.25 |