Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO)
$2.43
-0.02 (-0.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 154.27 | 178.17 | 185.79 | 71.50 | 127.59 | 139.29 | 152.07 | 166.02 | 181.25 | 197.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 34.91 | 41.42 | 43.07 | -5.96 | -31.34 | 10.07 | 11 | 12 | 13.11 | 14.31 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 17.91 | 20.53 | 21.43 | -25.86 | -51.25 | -11.61 | -12.67 | -13.84 | -15.10 | -16.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 17 | 20.88 | 21.64 | 19.90 | 19.91 | 21.68 | 23.67 | 25.84 | 28.21 | 30.80 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 29.78 | 33.79 | 23.74 | 25.30 | 389.05 | 109.03 | 119.03 | 129.95 | 141.87 | 154.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.98 | 7.03 | 4.91 | 2.18 | 4.82 | 4.82 | 5.26 | 5.74 | 6.27 | 6.85 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | 7.73 | 6.89 | 11.29 | 12.33 | 13.46 | 14.69 | 16.04 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 13.81 | 16.27 | 20.19 | 35.63 | 25.13 | 27.44 | 29.95 | 32.70 | 35.70 | 38.97 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -17.72 | -22.10 | -12.66 | -7.32 | -13.06 | -14.26 | -15.57 | -16.99 | -18.55 | -20.26 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.43 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.621 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14.31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.10 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.168 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 34.78 |
| Total Capital | 34.78 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 154.27 | 178.17 | 185.79 | 71.50 | 127.59 | 139.29 | 152.07 | 166.02 | 181.25 | 197.88 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 34.91 | 41.42 | 43.07 | -5.96 | -31.34 | 10.07 | 11 | 12 | 13.11 | 14.31 |
| EBIT | 17.91 | 20.53 | 21.43 | -25.86 | -51.25 | -11.61 | -12.67 | -13.84 | -15.10 | -16.49 |
| Tax Rate | 74.96% | 179.20% | -106.18% | -1.63% | -0.10% | 29.25% | 29.25% | 29.25% | 29.25% | 29.25% |
| EBIAT | 4.48 | -16.26 | 44.18 | -26.28 | -51.30 | -8.21 | -8.97 | -9.79 | -10.69 | -11.67 |
| Depreciation | 17 | 20.88 | 21.64 | 19.90 | 19.91 | 21.68 | 23.67 | 25.84 | 28.21 | 30.80 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.05 | 2.12 | 2.73 | -2.64 | 0 | -0.44 | -0.48 | -0.53 | -0.58 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | 0.83 | -4.40 | -1.04 | -1.13 | -1.23 | -1.35 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.45 | 3.92 | 15.44 | -10.50 | 2.31 | 2.52 | 2.75 | 3 | 3.28 |
| Capital Expenditure | -17.72 | -22.10 | -12.66 | -7.32 | -13.06 | -14.26 | -15.57 | -16.99 | -18.55 | -20.26 |
| UFCF | 3.76 | -16.08 | 59.19 | 4.47 | -56.76 | -2.88 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -2.59 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.13 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.17 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 0.23 |
| Terminal Value | 2.53 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1.49 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -0.55 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -13.17 |
| Equity Value | 12.62 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.88 |