Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO)
$2.04
+0.04 (+2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 178.17 | 185.79 | 71.50 | 127.59 | 166.08 | 187.40 | 211.47 | 238.62 | 269.27 | 303.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 41.42 | 43.07 | -5.96 | -31.34 | 45.28 | 15.29 | 17.25 | 19.47 | 21.97 | 24.79 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 20.53 | 21.43 | -25.86 | -51.25 | 26.63 | -13.96 | -15.75 | -17.77 | -20.05 | -22.63 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 20.88 | 21.64 | 19.90 | 19.91 | 18.65 | 29.25 | 33 | 37.24 | 42.02 | 47.42 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 33.79 | 23.74 | 25.30 | 389.05 | 386.99 | 226.78 | 255.91 | 288.77 | 325.85 | 367.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.03 | 4.91 | 2.18 | 4.82 | 5.84 | 6.35 | 7.16 | 8.08 | 9.12 | 10.29 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | 7.73 | 6.89 | 6.75 | 12.67 | 14.29 | 16.13 | 18.20 | 20.54 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 16.27 | 20.19 | 35.63 | 29.70 | 38.66 | 43.62 | 49.22 | 55.54 | 62.68 | 70.73 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -22.10 | -12.66 | -6.87 | -12.26 | -15.96 | -18.01 | -20.32 | -22.93 | -25.88 | -29.20 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.04 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.693 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14.31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.60 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.471 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 29.20 |
| Total Capital | 29.20 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 178.17 | 185.79 | 71.50 | 127.59 | 166.08 | 187.40 | 211.47 | 238.62 | 269.27 | 303.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 41.42 | 43.07 | -5.96 | -31.34 | 45.28 | 15.29 | 17.25 | 19.47 | 21.97 | 24.79 |
| EBIT | 20.53 | 21.43 | -25.86 | -51.25 | 26.63 | -13.96 | -15.75 | -17.77 | -20.05 | -22.63 |
| Tax Rate | 179.20% | -106.18% | -1.63% | -0.10% | 27.60% | 19.78% | 19.78% | 19.78% | 19.78% | 19.78% |
| EBIAT | -16.26 | 44.18 | -26.28 | -51.30 | 19.28 | -11.20 | -12.64 | -14.26 | -16.09 | -18.15 |
| Depreciation | 20.88 | 21.64 | 19.90 | 19.91 | 18.65 | 29.25 | 33 | 37.24 | 42.02 | 47.42 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.12 | 2.73 | -2.64 | -1.02 | -0.50 | -0.82 | -0.92 | -1.04 | -1.17 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | 0.83 | 0.14 | -5.91 | -1.63 | -1.84 | -2.07 | -2.34 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.92 | 15.44 | -5.93 | 8.96 | 4.96 | 5.60 | 6.32 | 7.13 | 8.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -22.10 | -12.66 | -6.87 | -12.26 | -15.96 | -18.01 | -20.32 | -22.93 | -25.88 | -29.20 |
| UFCF | -17.48 | 59.19 | 4.92 | -51.40 | 30.05 | -1.41 | 3.20 | 3.61 | 4.08 | 4.60 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1.27 | 2.58 | 2.61 | 2.64 | 2.67 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 9.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.47 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4.69 |
| Terminal Value | 49.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 28.79 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 38.03 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -21.92 |
| Equity Value | 59.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 4.19 |