Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB)
$68.73
+0.33 (+0.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 5,008.50 | 3,145.90 | 3,802.10 | 3,964.20 | 2,998.10 | 2,725 | 2,476.77 | 2,251.15 | 2,046.09 | 1,859.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 713.70 | 703.90 | 867.70 | 461.70 | 396.70 | 459.57 | 417.71 | 379.66 | 345.07 | 313.64 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 514.40 | 572.20 | 686.90 | 313.20 | 279.70 | 347.47 | 315.82 | 287.05 | 260.90 | 237.13 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 199.30 | 131.70 | 180.80 | 148.50 | 117 | 112.10 | 101.89 | 92.61 | 84.17 | 76.51 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 270.10 | 552.50 | 627.10 | 531.60 | 187.90 | 322.24 | 292.88 | 266.20 | 241.96 | 219.91 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 569.80 | 289.90 | 430.90 | 575.30 | 312.10 | 309.82 | 281.60 | 255.94 | 232.63 | 211.44 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 775.50 | 503.40 | 548.40 | 557.70 | 562.80 | 429.18 | 390.09 | 354.55 | 322.26 | 292.90 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 729.10 | 436.10 | 456.80 | 557.50 | 388.60 | 367.65 | 334.16 | 303.72 | 276.05 | 250.91 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -115 | -64.70 | -58.40 | -61 | -43.60 | -48.41 | -44 | -39.99 | -36.35 | -33.03 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 68.73 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.288 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 43.20 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 1,808.11 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -78.06% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.932 |
Total Debt | 2,550.80 |
Total Equity | 2,969.14 |
Total Capital | 5,519.94 |
Debt Weighting | 46.21 |
Equity Weighting | 53.79 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 5,008.50 | 3,145.90 | 3,802.10 | 3,964.20 | 2,998.10 | 2,725 | 2,476.77 | 2,251.15 | 2,046.09 | 1,859.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 713.70 | 703.90 | 867.70 | 461.70 | 396.70 | 459.57 | 417.71 | 379.66 | 345.07 | 313.64 |
EBIT | 514.40 | 572.20 | 686.90 | 313.20 | 279.70 | 347.47 | 315.82 | 287.05 | 260.90 | 237.13 |
Tax Rate | 29.89% | 591.55% | 343.50% | 37.07% | 1,808.11% | 562.02% | 562.02% | 562.02% | 562.02% | 562.02% |
EBIAT | 360.62 | -2,812.68 | -1,672.59 | 197.11 | -4,777.58 | -1,605.38 | -1,459.14 | -1,326.23 | -1,205.42 | -1,095.61 |
Depreciation | 199.30 | 131.70 | 180.80 | 148.50 | 117 | 112.10 | 101.89 | 92.61 | 84.17 | 76.51 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 279.90 | -141 | -144.40 | 263.20 | 2.28 | 28.22 | 25.65 | 23.31 | 21.19 |
Inventories | - | 272.10 | -45 | -9.30 | -5.10 | 133.62 | 39.10 | 35.53 | 32.30 | 29.36 |
Accounts Payable | - | -293 | 20.70 | 100.70 | -168.90 | -20.95 | -33.49 | -30.44 | -27.67 | -25.15 |
Capital Expenditure | -115 | -64.70 | -58.40 | -61 | -43.60 | -48.41 | -44 | -39.99 | -36.35 | -33.03 |
UFCF | 444.92 | -2,486.68 | -1,715.49 | 231.61 | -4,614.98 | -1,426.73 | -1,367.42 | -1,242.86 | -1,129.64 | -1,026.74 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -2,075.85 | -2,894.74 | -3,828.10 | -5,062.40 | -6,694.68 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -20,555.77 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | -31.27 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,047.28 |
Terminal Value | 3,147.81 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 20,524.71 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -31.06 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,362.90 |
Equity Value | -2,393.96 |
Shares Outstanding | 43.20 |
Equity Value Per Share | -55.42 |