Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG-PJ)

$57.59

-0.72 (-1.23%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 26.20 | 57.59 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,657.92	5,755.19	4,607.50	5,116.79	5,291.45	5,241.76	5,192.55	5,143.79	5,095.50	5,047.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4,642.65	4,315.16	3,247.32	4,528.44	4,124.82	4,130.17	4,091.39	4,052.98	4,014.92	3,977.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,292.88	2,920.99	1,892.33	3,202.54	2,832.71	2,790.16	2,763.96	2,738.01	2,712.30	2,686.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,349.78	1,394.17	1,354.99	1,325.90	1,292.11	1,340.01	1,327.43	1,314.97	1,302.62	1,290.39
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	514.33	669.37	1,011.61	38,466.30	621.63	8,451.73	8,372.37	8,293.76	8,215.89	8,138.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	763.81	832.15	1,236.73	919.65	962.70	953.66	944.71	935.84	927.05	918.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,316.86	1,390.68	1,311.93	1,433.22	1,491.58	1,384.99	1,371.98	1,359.10	1,346.34	1,333.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-781.91	-876.01	-484.12	-527.93	-650.02	-651.55	-645.44	-639.38	-633.37	-627.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 57.59
Beta	1.545
Diluted Shares Outstanding	845.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.674
Total Debt	25,458.24
Total Equity	48,692.29
Total Capital	74,150.53
Debt Weighting	34.33
Equity Weighting	65.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,657.92	5,755.19	4,607.50	5,116.79	5,291.45	5,241.76	5,192.55	5,143.79	5,095.50	5,047.65
EBITDA	4,642.65	4,315.16	3,247.32	4,528.44	4,124.82	4,130.17	4,091.39	4,052.98	4,014.92	3,977.22
EBIT	3,292.88	2,920.99	1,892.33	3,202.54	2,832.71	2,790.16	2,763.96	2,738.01	2,712.30	2,686.83
Tax Rate	14.66%	14.33%	12.58%	17.47%	0.00%	11.81%	11.81%	11.81%	11.81%	11.81%
EBIAT	2,810.12	2,502.28	1,654.24	2,642.99	2,832.71	2,460.65	2,437.54	2,414.66	2,391.98	2,369.52
Depreciation	1,349.78	1,394.17	1,354.99	1,325.90	1,292.11	1,340.01	1,327.43	1,314.97	1,302.62	1,290.39
Accounts Receivable	-	-68.34	-404.58	317.08	-43.05	9.04	8.95	8.87	8.79	8.70
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	73.82	-78.76	121.29	58.37	-106.59	-13	-12.88	-12.76	-12.64
Capital Expenditure	-781.91	-876.01	-484.12	-527.93	-650.02	-651.55	-645.44	-639.38	-633.37	-627.43
UFCF	3,377.99	3,025.93	2,041.78	3,879.32	3,490.12	3,051.55	3,115.49	3,086.24	3,057.26	3,028.55
WACC
PV UFCF						2,824.46	2,669.05	2,447.23	2,243.85	2,057.37
SUM PV UFCF										12,241.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.04
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,089.12
Terminal Value	51,144.42
Present Value of Terminal Value	34,743.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	46,985.61
Net Debt	24,836.61
Equity Value	22,149
Shares Outstanding	845.50
Equity Value Per Share	26.20