Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SpartanNash Company (SPTN)

$31.98

-0.10 (-0.31%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -18.43 | 31.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,128.08	8,064.55	8,536.07	8,752.25	8,973.90	9,201.17	9,434.20	9,673.12	9,918.10	10,169.28	10,426.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-22.14	155.15	128.55	92.11	94.45	96.84	99.29	101.81	104.38	107.03	109.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-106.53	70.96	37.95	0.40	0.41	0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	84.39	84.19	90.60	91.71	94.03	96.41	98.86	101.36	103.93	106.56	109.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	15.67	18.59	24.17	20.61	21.13	21.67	22.21	22.78	23.35	23.94	24.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	344.06	346.26	345.32	366.78	376.07	385.59	395.35	405.37	415.63	426.16	436.95
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	597.16	553.80	537.21	598.29	613.44	628.97	644.90	661.24	677.98	695.15	712.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	376.98	357.80	405.37	403.29	413.51	423.98	434.71	445.72	457.01	468.59	480.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-70.91	-71.49	-74.82	-76.88	-78.83	-80.83	-82.87	-84.97	-87.13	-89.33	-91.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 31.98
Beta	0.786
Diluted Shares Outstanding	35.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.25
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.329
Total Debt	720.27
Total Equity	1,149.46
Total Capital	1,869.73
Debt Weighting	38.52
Equity Weighting	61.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,128.08	8,064.55	8,536.07	8,752.25	8,973.90	9,201.17	9,434.20	9,673.12	9,918.10	10,169.28	10,426.83
EBITDA	-22.14	155.15	128.55	92.11	94.45	96.84	99.29	101.81	104.38	107.03	109.74
EBIT	-106.53	70.96	37.95	0.40	0.41	0.43	0.44	0.45	0.46	0.47	0.48
Tax Rate	59.86%	17.51%	-60.62%	10.61%	11.07%	25.25%	10.61%	10.61%	10.61%	10.61%	10.61%
EBIAT	-42.76	58.54	60.95	0.36	0.37	0.32	0.39	0.40	0.41	0.42	0.43
Depreciation	84.39	84.19	90.60	91.71	94.03	96.41	98.86	101.36	103.93	106.56	109.26
Accounts Receivable	-	-2.20	0.94	-21.46	-9.29	-9.52	-9.77	-10.01	-10.27	-10.53	-10.79
Inventories	-	43.36	16.59	-61.07	-15.15	-15.54	-15.93	-16.33	-16.75	-17.17	-17.61
Accounts Payable	-	-19.18	47.57	-2.08	10.21	10.47	10.74	11.01	11.29	11.57	11.87
Capital Expenditure	-70.91	-71.50	-74.81	-76.88	-67.30	-79.43	-82.87	-84.97	-87.13	-89.33	-91.59
UFCF	-29.28	93.22	141.83	-69.42	1.34	1.32	1.41	1.45	1.49	1.52	1.56
WACC
PV UFCF				-72.93	1.34	1.25	1.28	1.25	1.22	1.19	1.16
SUM PV UFCF											6.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.06
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1.59
Terminal Value	52.09
Present Value of Terminal Value	40.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	47.11
Net Debt	709.60
Equity Value	-662.49
Shares Outstanding	35.94
Equity Value Per Share	-18.43