Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

SpartanNash Company (SPTN)

$31.98

-0.10 (-0.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -18.43 | 31.98 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 8,128.088,064.558,536.078,752.258,973.909,201.179,434.209,673.129,918.1010,169.2810,426.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -22.14155.15128.5592.1194.4596.8499.29101.81104.38107.03109.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -106.5370.9637.950.400.410.430.440.450.460.470.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 84.3984.1990.6091.7194.0396.4198.86101.36103.93106.56109.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 15.6718.5924.1720.6121.1321.6722.2122.7823.3523.9424.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 344.06346.26345.32366.78376.07385.59395.35405.37415.63426.16436.95
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 597.16553.80537.21598.29613.44628.97644.90661.24677.98695.15712.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 376.98357.80405.37403.29413.51423.98434.71445.72457.01468.59480.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -70.91-71.49-74.82-76.88-78.83-80.83-82.87-84.97-87.13-89.33-91.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.98
Beta 0.786
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.329
Total Debt 720.27
Total Equity 1,149.46
Total Capital 1,869.73
Debt Weighting 38.52
Equity Weighting 61.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 8,128.088,064.558,536.078,752.258,973.909,201.179,434.209,673.129,918.1010,169.2810,426.83
EBITDA -22.14155.15128.5592.1194.4596.8499.29101.81104.38107.03109.74
EBIT -106.5370.9637.950.400.410.430.440.450.460.470.48
Tax Rate 59.86%17.51%-60.62%10.61%11.07%25.25%10.61%10.61%10.61%10.61%10.61%
EBIAT -42.7658.5460.950.360.370.320.390.400.410.420.43
Depreciation 84.3984.1990.6091.7194.0396.4198.86101.36103.93106.56109.26
Accounts Receivable --2.200.94-21.46-9.29-9.52-9.77-10.01-10.27-10.53-10.79
Inventories -43.3616.59-61.07-15.15-15.54-15.93-16.33-16.75-17.17-17.61
Accounts Payable --19.1847.57-2.0810.2110.4710.7411.0111.2911.5711.87
Capital Expenditure -70.91-71.50-74.81-76.88-67.30-79.43-82.87-84.97-87.13-89.33-91.59
UFCF -29.2893.22141.83-69.421.341.321.411.451.491.521.56
WACC
PV UFCF -72.931.341.251.281.251.221.191.16
SUM PV UFCF 6.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1.59
Terminal Value 52.09
Present Value of Terminal Value 40.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 47.11
Net Debt 709.60
Equity Value -662.49
Shares Outstanding 35.94
Equity Value Per Share -18.43