Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Block, Inc. (SQ)

$72.65

-4.81 (-6.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -89.01 | 72.65 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,298.184,713.509,497.5817,661.2017,531.5927,596.0643,438.3068,375.20107,627.79169,414.37
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 24.83453.81357.12332.80-744.17650.201,023.461,6112,535.843,991.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -36.13378.21272.91198.04-492.21447.94705.091,109.861,7472,749.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 60.9675.6084.21134.76-251.97202.26318.37501.14788.841,241.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,458.182,215.875,8918,143.958,806.3813,775.5521,683.7734,131.9053,726.2284,569.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 433.44689.841,215.462,099.624,287.484,245.316,682.4410,518.6816,557.2026,062.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 28.6347.6861.1377.06129.71204.18321.39505.90796.321,253.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 90.55137.95286.45336.78464.38730.961,150.591,811.122,850.854,487.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -62.79-62.50-138.40-134.32-170.81-354.43-557.90-878.17-1,382.31-2,175.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.65
Beta 2.350
Diluted Shares Outstanding 501.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 4.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.594
Total Debt 6,009.45
Total Equity 36,454.24
Total Capital 42,463.70
Debt Weighting 14.15
Equity Weighting 85.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,298.184,713.509,497.5817,661.2017,531.5927,596.0643,438.3068,375.20107,627.79169,414.37
EBITDA 24.83453.81357.12332.80-744.17650.201,023.461,6112,535.843,991.61
EBIT -36.13378.21272.91198.04-492.21447.94705.091,109.861,7472,749.92
Tax Rate -6.44%0.73%1.33%-5.60%4.35%-1.13%-1.13%-1.13%-1.13%-1.13%
EBIAT -38.45375.45269.29209.14-470.81452.99713.041,122.371,766.702,780.93
Depreciation 60.9675.6084.21134.76-251.97202.26318.37501.14788.841,241.69
Accounts Receivable --256.39-525.63-884.15-2,187.8742.17-2,437.13-3,836.23-6,038.52-9,505.10
Inventories --19.06-13.45-15.93-52.66-74.47-117.21-184.50-290.42-457.15
Accounts Payable -47.40148.5050.33127.59266.59419.63660.531,039.721,636.60
Capital Expenditure -62.79-62.50-138.40-134.32-170.81-354.43-557.90-878.17-1,382.31-2,175.86
UFCF -40.28160.49-175.47-640.17-3,006.53535.11-1,661.21-2,614.86-4,116-6,478.89
WACC
PV UFCF 475.19-1,309.99-1,831.13-2,559.57-3,577.80
SUM PV UFCF -8,803.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,608.47
Terminal Value -62,285.31
Present Value of Terminal Value -34,395.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -43,198.74
Net Debt 1,465.25
Equity Value -44,663.99
Shares Outstanding 501.78
Equity Value Per Share -89.01