Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Block, Inc. (SQ)
$72.65
-4.81 (-6.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,298.18 | 4,713.50 | 9,497.58 | 17,661.20 | 17,531.59 | 27,596.06 | 43,438.30 | 68,375.20 | 107,627.79 | 169,414.37 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 24.83 | 453.81 | 357.12 | 332.80 | -744.17 | 650.20 | 1,023.46 | 1,611 | 2,535.84 | 3,991.61 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -36.13 | 378.21 | 272.91 | 198.04 | -492.21 | 447.94 | 705.09 | 1,109.86 | 1,747 | 2,749.92 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 60.96 | 75.60 | 84.21 | 134.76 | -251.97 | 202.26 | 318.37 | 501.14 | 788.84 | 1,241.69 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,458.18 | 2,215.87 | 5,891 | 8,143.95 | 8,806.38 | 13,775.55 | 21,683.77 | 34,131.90 | 53,726.22 | 84,569.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 433.44 | 689.84 | 1,215.46 | 2,099.62 | 4,287.48 | 4,245.31 | 6,682.44 | 10,518.68 | 16,557.20 | 26,062.30 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 28.63 | 47.68 | 61.13 | 77.06 | 129.71 | 204.18 | 321.39 | 505.90 | 796.32 | 1,253.47 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 90.55 | 137.95 | 286.45 | 336.78 | 464.38 | 730.96 | 1,150.59 | 1,811.12 | 2,850.85 | 4,487.45 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -62.79 | -62.50 | -138.40 | -134.32 | -170.81 | -354.43 | -557.90 | -878.17 | -1,382.31 | -2,175.86 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 72.65 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.350 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 501.78 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 4.35 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.57% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 14.594 |
Total Debt | 6,009.45 |
Total Equity | 36,454.24 |
Total Capital | 42,463.70 |
Debt Weighting | 14.15 |
Equity Weighting | 85.85 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,298.18 | 4,713.50 | 9,497.58 | 17,661.20 | 17,531.59 | 27,596.06 | 43,438.30 | 68,375.20 | 107,627.79 | 169,414.37 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 24.83 | 453.81 | 357.12 | 332.80 | -744.17 | 650.20 | 1,023.46 | 1,611 | 2,535.84 | 3,991.61 |
EBIT | -36.13 | 378.21 | 272.91 | 198.04 | -492.21 | 447.94 | 705.09 | 1,109.86 | 1,747 | 2,749.92 |
Tax Rate | -6.44% | 0.73% | 1.33% | -5.60% | 4.35% | -1.13% | -1.13% | -1.13% | -1.13% | -1.13% |
EBIAT | -38.45 | 375.45 | 269.29 | 209.14 | -470.81 | 452.99 | 713.04 | 1,122.37 | 1,766.70 | 2,780.93 |
Depreciation | 60.96 | 75.60 | 84.21 | 134.76 | -251.97 | 202.26 | 318.37 | 501.14 | 788.84 | 1,241.69 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -256.39 | -525.63 | -884.15 | -2,187.87 | 42.17 | -2,437.13 | -3,836.23 | -6,038.52 | -9,505.10 |
Inventories | - | -19.06 | -13.45 | -15.93 | -52.66 | -74.47 | -117.21 | -184.50 | -290.42 | -457.15 |
Accounts Payable | - | 47.40 | 148.50 | 50.33 | 127.59 | 266.59 | 419.63 | 660.53 | 1,039.72 | 1,636.60 |
Capital Expenditure | -62.79 | -62.50 | -138.40 | -134.32 | -170.81 | -354.43 | -557.90 | -878.17 | -1,382.31 | -2,175.86 |
UFCF | -40.28 | 160.49 | -175.47 | -640.17 | -3,006.53 | 535.11 | -1,661.21 | -2,614.86 | -4,116 | -6,478.89 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 475.19 | -1,309.99 | -1,831.13 | -2,559.57 | -3,577.80 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -8,803.30 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 12.61 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -6,608.47 |
Terminal Value | -62,285.31 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -34,395.44 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -43,198.74 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,465.25 |
Equity Value | -44,663.99 |
Shares Outstanding | 501.78 |
Equity Value Per Share | -89.01 |