Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sempra (SRE)
$142.78
+3.09 (+2.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 11,687 | 10,829 | 11,370 | 12,857 | 14,439 | 15,270.59 | 16,150.06 | 17,080.20 | 18,063.90 | 19,104.25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3,620 | 5,159 | 6,929 | 4,470 | 4,877 | 6,355.61 | 6,721.65 | 7,108.77 | 7,518.19 | 7,951.18 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,071 | 3,590 | 5,263 | 2,615 | 3,895 | 4,412.45 | 4,666.57 | 4,935.34 | 5,219.58 | 5,520.19 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,549 | 1,569 | 1,666 | 1,855 | 982 | 1,943.17 | 2,055.08 | 2,173.44 | 2,298.61 | 2,431 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 190 | 108 | 13,400 | 559 | 370 | 3,890.56 | 4,114.63 | 4,351.60 | 4,602.23 | 4,867.28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,957 | 1,860 | 2,114 | 2,571 | 2,748 | 2,795.82 | 2,956.84 | 3,127.13 | 3,307.23 | 3,497.71 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 296 | 277 | 308 | 389 | 403 | 415.85 | 439.81 | 465.13 | 491.92 | 520.25 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,324 | 1,234 | 1,359 | 1,849 | 953 | 1,699.86 | 1,797.76 | 1,901.30 | 2,010.80 | 2,126.61 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,784 | -3,708 | -4,676 | -5,015 | 231 | -4,433.09 | -4,688.40 | -4,958.42 | -5,243.99 | -5,546.01 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 142.78 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.731 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 313.04 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -70.14 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 15.78% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.830 |
Total Debt | 6,680 |
Total Equity | 44,695.28 |
Total Capital | 51,375.28 |
Debt Weighting | 13.00 |
Equity Weighting | 87.00 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 11,687 | 10,829 | 11,370 | 12,857 | 14,439 | 15,270.59 | 16,150.06 | 17,080.20 | 18,063.90 | 19,104.25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3,620 | 5,159 | 6,929 | 4,470 | 4,877 | 6,355.61 | 6,721.65 | 7,108.77 | 7,518.19 | 7,951.18 |
EBIT | 2,071 | 3,590 | 5,263 | 2,615 | 3,895 | 4,412.45 | 4,666.57 | 4,935.34 | 5,219.58 | 5,520.19 |
Tax Rate | -0.38% | -26.76% | -164.14% | -501.83% | -70.14% | -152.65% | -152.65% | -152.65% | -152.65% | -152.65% |
EBIAT | 2,078.92 | 4,550.65 | 13,901.53 | 15,737.76 | 6,627.01 | 11,148.02 | 11,790.07 | 12,469.09 | 13,187.22 | 13,946.72 |
Depreciation | 1,549 | 1,569 | 1,666 | 1,855 | 982 | 1,943.17 | 2,055.08 | 2,173.44 | 2,298.61 | 2,431 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 97 | -254 | -457 | -177 | -47.82 | -161.02 | -170.29 | -180.10 | -190.47 |
Inventories | - | 19 | -31 | -81 | -14 | -12.85 | -23.95 | -25.33 | -26.79 | -28.33 |
Accounts Payable | - | -90 | 125 | 490 | -896 | 746.86 | 97.90 | 103.54 | 109.50 | 115.81 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,784 | -3,708 | -4,676 | -5,015 | 231 | -4,433.09 | -4,688.40 | -4,958.42 | -5,243.99 | -5,546.01 |
UFCF | -156.08 | 2,437.65 | 10,731.53 | 12,529.76 | 6,753.01 | 9,344.29 | 9,069.67 | 9,592.02 | 10,144.46 | 10,728.71 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 8,652.92 | 7,777.22 | 7,616.57 | 7,459.24 | 7,305.16 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 38,811.11 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.99 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 10,943.28 |
Terminal Value | 182,692.51 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 124,395.03 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 163,206.14 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 6,310 |
Equity Value | 156,896.14 |
Shares Outstanding | 313.04 |
Equity Value Per Share | 501.21 |