Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD)

$132.24

+3.01 (+2.33%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 339.58 | 132.24 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	1,136.54	1,267.95	1,573.22	2,116.09	2,610.86	3,221.33	3,974.53	4,903.84	6,050.44	7,465.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	216.76	290.34	401.03	516.55	599.66	739.87	912.87	1,126.31	1,389.66	1,714.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	178.36	251.58	358.55	455.66	521.25	643.12	793.50	979.03	1,207.94	1,490.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	38.40	38.77	42.48	60.89	78.42	96.75	119.37	147.28	181.72	224.21
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	230.21	277.11	602.31	601.48	710.28	876.36	1,081.27	1,334.09	1,646.02	2,030.88
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	139.36	165.13	231.02	269.12	343.90	424.31	523.53	645.93	796.96	983.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	251.91	283.74	443.76	556.80	646.59	797.78	984.31	1,214.46	1,498.42	1,848.78
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	33.35	48.27	57.22	97.84	97.92	120.82	149.06	183.92	226.92	279.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-37.53	-37.91	-43.74	361.56	369.09	142.71	176.08	217.25	268.05	330.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 132.24
Beta	1.220
Diluted Shares Outstanding	43.05
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.46
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.544
Total Debt	601.42
Total Equity	5,692.54
Total Capital	6,293.96
Debt Weighting	9.56
Equity Weighting	90.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	1,136.54	1,267.95	1,573.22	2,116.09	2,610.86	3,221.33	3,974.53	4,903.84	6,050.44	7,465.14
EBITDA	216.76	290.34	401.03	516.55	599.66	739.87	912.87	1,126.31	1,389.66	1,714.59
EBIT	178.36	251.58	358.55	455.66	521.25	643.12	793.50	979.03	1,207.94	1,490.38
Tax Rate	24.88%	25.07%	25.69%	25.46%	25.27%	25.27%	25.27%	25.27%	25.27%	25.27%
EBIAT	133.98	188.51	266.45	339.66	389.51	480.58	592.95	731.59	902.65	1,113.71
Depreciation	38.40	38.77	42.48	60.89	78.42	96.75	119.37	147.28	181.72	224.21
Accounts Receivable	-	-25.76	-65.89	-38.10	-74.78	-80.41	-99.21	-122.41	-151.03	-186.34
Inventories	-	-31.83	-160.01	-113.05	-89.79	-151.18	-186.53	-230.15	-283.96	-350.36
Accounts Payable	-	14.92	8.94	40.63	0.08	22.90	28.25	34.85	43	53.06
Capital Expenditure	-37.53	-37.91	-43.74	361.56	369.09	142.71	176.08	217.25	268.05	330.72
UFCF	134.86	146.69	48.22	651.58	672.52	511.34	630.90	778.42	960.43	1,184.99
WACC
PV UFCF					672.52	470.33	533.76	605.74	687.43	780.13
SUM PV UFCF										3,077.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.72
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,208.69
Terminal Value	17,986.51
Present Value of Terminal Value	11,841.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	14,918.70
Net Debt	300.68
Equity Value	14,618.02
Shares Outstanding	43.05
Equity Value Per Share	339.58