Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD)

$105.01

-0.31 (-0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 200.65 | 105.01 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,078.811,136.541,267.951,573.222,116.092,515.482,990.253,554.644,225.545,023.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 212.09216.76290.34401.03516.55561.11667.02792.91942.561,120.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 172.70178.36251.58358.55455.66482.30573.33681.54810.18963.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 39.3938.4038.7742.4860.8978.8193.69111.37132.39157.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 160.18230.21277.10602.31601.48622.17739.59879.191,045.121,242.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 146.05139.36165.13231.02269.12333.18396.07470.82559.68665.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 276.09251.91283.74443.76556.80627.13745.49886.201,053.461,252.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.3633.3548.2757.2297.8491.50108.77129.30153.70182.71
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -29.31-37.53-37.91-43.74361.5626.6531.6837.6644.7753.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 105.01
Beta 1.209
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.05
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.271
Total Debt 601.42
Total Equity 4,520.37
Total Capital 5,121.79
Debt Weighting 11.74
Equity Weighting 88.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,078.811,136.541,267.951,573.222,116.092,515.482,990.253,554.644,225.545,023.07
EBITDA 212.09216.76290.34401.03516.55561.11667.02792.91942.561,120.46
EBIT 172.70178.36251.58358.55455.66482.30573.33681.54810.18963.09
Tax Rate 26.43%24.88%25.07%25.69%25.46%25.51%25.51%25.51%25.51%25.51%
EBIAT 127.05133.98188.51266.45339.66359.29427.10507.71603.54717.45
Depreciation 39.3938.4038.7742.4860.8978.8193.69111.37132.39157.38
Accounts Receivable -6.69-25.76-65.89-38.10-64.06-62.89-74.75-88.86-105.64
Inventories -24.18-31.83-160.01-113.05-70.33-118.36-140.71-167.26-198.83
Accounts Payable --1.0114.928.9440.63-6.3417.2720.5324.4029.01
Capital Expenditure -29.31-37.53-37.91-43.74361.5626.6531.6837.6644.7753.22
UFCF 137.14164.72146.6948.22651.58324.02388.49461.81548.97652.59
WACC
PV UFCF 299.22331.28363.66399.21438.23
SUM PV UFCF 1,831.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) 665.64
Terminal Value 10,582.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,106.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,937.96
Net Debt 300.68
Equity Value 8,637.28
Shares Outstanding 43.05
Equity Value Per Share 200.65