Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sensata Technologies Holding plc (ST)

$43.88

+1.16 (+2.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 63.63 | 43.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,521.633,450.633,045.583,820.814,029.264,202.074,382.294,570.244,766.264,970.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 925.39807.73592.63673856.49907.77946.71987.311,029.661,073.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 680.05548.98337.40413.92575.52600.18625.93652.77680.77709.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 245.34258.75255.23259.09280.97307.59320.78334.54348.89363.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 729.83774.121,861.981,708.961,225.521,508.031,572.711,640.161,710.501,783.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 581.77557.87576.65653.44742.38732.40763.82796.58830.74866.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 492.32506.68451588.23644.87629.24656.22684.37713.72744.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 379.82376.97393.91459.09531.57503.01524.58547.08570.54595.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -159.79-161.26-106.72-144.40-150.06-169.92-177.21-184.81-192.73-201
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 43.88
Beta 1.319
Diluted Shares Outstanding 155.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.942
Total Debt 4,240.14
Total Equity 6,842.08
Total Capital 11,082.22
Debt Weighting 38.26
Equity Weighting 61.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,521.633,450.633,045.583,820.814,029.264,202.074,382.294,570.244,766.264,970.68
EBITDA 925.39807.73592.63673856.49907.77946.71987.311,029.661,073.82
EBIT 680.05548.98337.40413.92575.52600.18625.93652.77680.77709.96
Tax Rate -13.80%27.59%0.82%12.16%21.68%9.69%9.69%9.69%9.69%9.69%
EBIAT 773.88397.53334.64363.58450.73542.02565.27589.51614.80641.16
Depreciation 245.34258.75255.23259.09280.97307.59320.78334.54348.89363.85
Accounts Receivable -23.90-18.77-76.79-88.949.98-31.41-32.76-34.16-35.63
Inventories --14.3655.67-137.23-56.6415.64-26.99-28.14-29.35-30.61
Accounts Payable --2.8616.9465.1972.48-28.5721.5722.5023.4624.47
Capital Expenditure -159.79-161.26-106.72-144.40-150.06-169.92-177.21-184.81-192.73-201
UFCF 859.43501.70536.99329.43508.53676.74672.02700.84730.90762.25
WACC
PV UFCF 630.12582.60565.73549.34533.43
SUM PV UFCF 2,861.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 777.49
Terminal Value 14,397.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,075.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,937.03
Net Debt 3,014.62
Equity Value 9,922.41
Shares Outstanding 155.93
Equity Value Per Share 63.63