Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sensata Technologies Holding plc (ST)
$43.88
+1.16 (+2.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,521.63 | 3,450.63 | 3,045.58 | 3,820.81 | 4,029.26 | 4,202.07 | 4,382.29 | 4,570.24 | 4,766.26 | 4,970.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 925.39 | 807.73 | 592.63 | 673 | 856.49 | 907.77 | 946.71 | 987.31 | 1,029.66 | 1,073.82 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 680.05 | 548.98 | 337.40 | 413.92 | 575.52 | 600.18 | 625.93 | 652.77 | 680.77 | 709.96 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 245.34 | 258.75 | 255.23 | 259.09 | 280.97 | 307.59 | 320.78 | 334.54 | 348.89 | 363.85 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 729.83 | 774.12 | 1,861.98 | 1,708.96 | 1,225.52 | 1,508.03 | 1,572.71 | 1,640.16 | 1,710.50 | 1,783.86 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 581.77 | 557.87 | 576.65 | 653.44 | 742.38 | 732.40 | 763.82 | 796.58 | 830.74 | 866.37 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 492.32 | 506.68 | 451 | 588.23 | 644.87 | 629.24 | 656.22 | 684.37 | 713.72 | 744.33 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 379.82 | 376.97 | 393.91 | 459.09 | 531.57 | 503.01 | 524.58 | 547.08 | 570.54 | 595.01 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -159.79 | -161.26 | -106.72 | -144.40 | -150.06 | -169.92 | -177.21 | -184.81 | -192.73 | -201 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 43.88 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.319 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 155.93 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 21.68 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.30% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.942 |
Total Debt | 4,240.14 |
Total Equity | 6,842.08 |
Total Capital | 11,082.22 |
Debt Weighting | 38.26 |
Equity Weighting | 61.74 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 3,521.63 | 3,450.63 | 3,045.58 | 3,820.81 | 4,029.26 | 4,202.07 | 4,382.29 | 4,570.24 | 4,766.26 | 4,970.68 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 925.39 | 807.73 | 592.63 | 673 | 856.49 | 907.77 | 946.71 | 987.31 | 1,029.66 | 1,073.82 |
EBIT | 680.05 | 548.98 | 337.40 | 413.92 | 575.52 | 600.18 | 625.93 | 652.77 | 680.77 | 709.96 |
Tax Rate | -13.80% | 27.59% | 0.82% | 12.16% | 21.68% | 9.69% | 9.69% | 9.69% | 9.69% | 9.69% |
EBIAT | 773.88 | 397.53 | 334.64 | 363.58 | 450.73 | 542.02 | 565.27 | 589.51 | 614.80 | 641.16 |
Depreciation | 245.34 | 258.75 | 255.23 | 259.09 | 280.97 | 307.59 | 320.78 | 334.54 | 348.89 | 363.85 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 23.90 | -18.77 | -76.79 | -88.94 | 9.98 | -31.41 | -32.76 | -34.16 | -35.63 |
Inventories | - | -14.36 | 55.67 | -137.23 | -56.64 | 15.64 | -26.99 | -28.14 | -29.35 | -30.61 |
Accounts Payable | - | -2.86 | 16.94 | 65.19 | 72.48 | -28.57 | 21.57 | 22.50 | 23.46 | 24.47 |
Capital Expenditure | -159.79 | -161.26 | -106.72 | -144.40 | -150.06 | -169.92 | -177.21 | -184.81 | -192.73 | -201 |
UFCF | 859.43 | 501.70 | 536.99 | 329.43 | 508.53 | 676.74 | 672.02 | 700.84 | 730.90 | 762.25 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 630.12 | 582.60 | 565.73 | 549.34 | 533.43 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,861.21 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.40 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 777.49 |
Terminal Value | 14,397.99 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 10,075.82 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 12,937.03 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,014.62 |
Equity Value | 9,922.41 |
Shares Outstanding | 155.93 |
Equity Value Per Share | 63.63 |