Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sensata Technologies Holding plc (ST)

$43.88

+1.16 (+2.72%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 63.63 | 43.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,521.63	3,450.63	3,045.58	3,820.81	4,029.26	4,202.07	4,382.29	4,570.24	4,766.26	4,970.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	925.39	807.73	592.63	673	856.49	907.77	946.71	987.31	1,029.66	1,073.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	680.05	548.98	337.40	413.92	575.52	600.18	625.93	652.77	680.77	709.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	245.34	258.75	255.23	259.09	280.97	307.59	320.78	334.54	348.89	363.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	729.83	774.12	1,861.98	1,708.96	1,225.52	1,508.03	1,572.71	1,640.16	1,710.50	1,783.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	581.77	557.87	576.65	653.44	742.38	732.40	763.82	796.58	830.74	866.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	492.32	506.68	451	588.23	644.87	629.24	656.22	684.37	713.72	744.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	379.82	376.97	393.91	459.09	531.57	503.01	524.58	547.08	570.54	595.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-159.79	-161.26	-106.72	-144.40	-150.06	-169.92	-177.21	-184.81	-192.73	-201
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 43.88
Beta	1.319
Diluted Shares Outstanding	155.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.68
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.942
Total Debt	4,240.14
Total Equity	6,842.08
Total Capital	11,082.22
Debt Weighting	38.26
Equity Weighting	61.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,521.63	3,450.63	3,045.58	3,820.81	4,029.26	4,202.07	4,382.29	4,570.24	4,766.26	4,970.68
EBITDA	925.39	807.73	592.63	673	856.49	907.77	946.71	987.31	1,029.66	1,073.82
EBIT	680.05	548.98	337.40	413.92	575.52	600.18	625.93	652.77	680.77	709.96
Tax Rate	-13.80%	27.59%	0.82%	12.16%	21.68%	9.69%	9.69%	9.69%	9.69%	9.69%
EBIAT	773.88	397.53	334.64	363.58	450.73	542.02	565.27	589.51	614.80	641.16
Depreciation	245.34	258.75	255.23	259.09	280.97	307.59	320.78	334.54	348.89	363.85
Accounts Receivable	-	23.90	-18.77	-76.79	-88.94	9.98	-31.41	-32.76	-34.16	-35.63
Inventories	-	-14.36	55.67	-137.23	-56.64	15.64	-26.99	-28.14	-29.35	-30.61
Accounts Payable	-	-2.86	16.94	65.19	72.48	-28.57	21.57	22.50	23.46	24.47
Capital Expenditure	-159.79	-161.26	-106.72	-144.40	-150.06	-169.92	-177.21	-184.81	-192.73	-201
UFCF	859.43	501.70	536.99	329.43	508.53	676.74	672.02	700.84	730.90	762.25
WACC
PV UFCF						630.12	582.60	565.73	549.34	533.43
SUM PV UFCF										2,861.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.40
Free cash flow (t + 1)	777.49
Terminal Value	14,397.99
Present Value of Terminal Value	10,075.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	12,937.03
Net Debt	3,014.62
Equity Value	9,922.41
Shares Outstanding	155.93
Equity Value Per Share	63.63