Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Sensata Technologies Holding plc (ST)

$37.2

+1.03 (+2.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 67.17 | 37.2 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,521.633,450.633,045.583,820.814,029.264,202.074,382.294,570.244,766.264,970.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 877.58922.75625.72922.21789.79974.411,016.201,059.791,105.241,152.64
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 632.24664370.49663.12508.82666.82695.42725.25756.35788.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 245.34258.75255.23259.09280.97307.59320.78334.54348.89363.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 729.83774.121,861.981,708.961,225.521,508.031,572.711,640.161,710.501,783.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 581.77557.87576.65653.44742.38732.40763.82796.58830.74866.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 492.32506.68451588.23644.87629.24656.22684.37713.72744.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 379.82376.97393.91459.09531.57503.01524.58547.08570.54595.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -159.79-161.26-106.72-144.40-150.06-169.92-177.21-184.81-192.73-201
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 37.2
Beta 1.313
Diluted Shares Outstanding 155.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.839
Total Debt 4,240.14
Total Equity 5,800.48
Total Capital 10,040.63
Debt Weighting 42.23
Equity Weighting 57.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,521.633,450.633,045.583,820.814,029.264,202.074,382.294,570.244,766.264,970.68
EBITDA 877.58922.75625.72922.21789.79974.411,016.201,059.791,105.241,152.64
EBIT 632.24664370.49663.12508.82666.82695.42725.25756.35788.79
Tax Rate -13.80%27.59%0.82%12.16%21.68%9.69%9.69%9.69%9.69%9.69%
EBIAT 719.46480.82367.46582.48398.49602.20628.03654.97683.06712.35
Depreciation 245.34258.75255.23259.09280.97307.59320.78334.54348.89363.85
Accounts Receivable -23.90-18.77-76.79-88.949.98-31.41-32.76-34.16-35.63
Inventories --14.3655.67-137.23-56.6415.64-26.99-28.14-29.35-30.61
Accounts Payable --2.8616.9465.1972.48-28.5721.5722.5023.4624.47
Capital Expenditure -159.79-161.26-106.72-144.40-150.06-169.92-177.21-184.81-192.73-201
UFCF 805.01584.99569.81548.33456.29736.92734.78766.30799.16833.44
WACC
PV UFCF 684.49633.94614.09594.86576.24
SUM PV UFCF 3,103.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 850.10
Terminal Value 15,019.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,384.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,488.08
Net Debt 3,014.62
Equity Value 10,473.46
Shares Outstanding 155.93
Equity Value Per Share 67.17