Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
State Auto Financial Corporation (STFC)
$52.01
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,405.40 | 1,421.30 | 1,273.20 | 1,407.60 | 1,480.30 | 1,504.10 | 1,528.29 | 1,552.87 | 1,577.84 | 1,603.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 39.30 | 51.80 | 27.50 | 121.30 | 29.70 | 57.83 | 58.76 | 59.71 | 60.67 | 61.64 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 24.70 | 39.30 | 18.60 | 111.90 | 19.10 | 45.80 | 46.53 | 47.28 | 48.04 | 48.81 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.60 | 12.50 | 8.90 | 9.40 | 10.60 | 12.04 | 12.23 | 12.43 | 12.63 | 12.83 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,588.30 | 2,705.60 | 2,219.30 | 2,205.90 | 2,327.90 | 2,595.51 | 2,637.25 | 2,679.66 | 2,722.75 | 2,766.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 80.30 | 77.90 | 81.40 | 111.40 | 110 | 99.07 | 100.66 | 102.28 | 103.93 | 105.60 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 52.01 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.359 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.03 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.76% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.437 |
| Total Debt | 244.10 |
| Total Equity | 2,304.04 |
| Total Capital | 2,548.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 9.58 |
| Equity Weighting | 90.42 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,405.40 | 1,421.30 | 1,273.20 | 1,407.60 | 1,480.30 | 1,504.10 | 1,528.29 | 1,552.87 | 1,577.84 | 1,603.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 39.30 | 51.80 | 27.50 | 121.30 | 29.70 | 57.83 | 58.76 | 59.71 | 60.67 | 61.64 |
| EBIT | 24.70 | 39.30 | 18.60 | 111.90 | 19.10 | 45.80 | 46.53 | 47.28 | 48.04 | 48.81 |
| Tax Rate | -9.38% | 132.04% | 0.78% | 18.32% | 9.03% | 30.16% | 30.16% | 30.16% | 30.16% | 30.16% |
| EBIAT | 27.02 | -12.59 | 18.46 | 91.40 | 17.38 | 31.99 | 32.50 | 33.02 | 33.55 | 34.09 |
| Depreciation | 14.60 | 12.50 | 8.90 | 9.40 | 10.60 | 12.04 | 12.23 | 12.43 | 12.63 | 12.83 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.40 | -3.50 | -30 | 1.40 | 10.93 | -1.59 | -1.62 | -1.64 | -1.67 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 54.95 | 43.14 | 43.83 | 44.53 | 45.25 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 52.30 | 39.07 | 37.78 | 36.53 | 35.32 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 200.99 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.08 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 46.16 |
| Terminal Value | 1,498.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,169.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,370.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 153.40 |
| Equity Value | 1,217.29 |
| Shares Outstanding | 44.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 27.48 |