Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
State Auto Financial Corporation (STFC)
$52.01
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 1,405.40 | 1,421.30 | 1,273.20 | 1,407.60 | 1,480.30 | 1,504.10 | 1,528.29 | 1,552.87 | 1,577.84 | 1,603.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 39.30 | 51.80 | 27.50 | 121.30 | 29.70 | 57.83 | 58.76 | 59.71 | 60.67 | 61.64 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 24.70 | 39.30 | 18.60 | 111.90 | 19.10 | 45.80 | 46.53 | 47.28 | 48.04 | 48.81 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 14.60 | 12.50 | 8.90 | 9.40 | 10.60 | 12.04 | 12.23 | 12.43 | 12.63 | 12.83 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Total Cash | 2,588.30 | 2,705.60 | 2,219.30 | 2,205.90 | 2,327.90 | 2,595.51 | 2,637.25 | 2,679.66 | 2,722.75 | 2,766.53 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 80.30 | 77.90 | 81.40 | 111.40 | 110 | 99.07 | 100.66 | 102.28 | 103.93 | 105.60 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 52.01 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.359 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44.30 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 9.03 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.76% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 5.437 |
Total Debt | 244.10 |
Total Equity | 2,304.04 |
Total Capital | 2,548.14 |
Debt Weighting | 9.58 |
Equity Weighting | 90.42 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
Revenue | 1,405.40 | 1,421.30 | 1,273.20 | 1,407.60 | 1,480.30 | 1,504.10 | 1,528.29 | 1,552.87 | 1,577.84 | 1,603.21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 39.30 | 51.80 | 27.50 | 121.30 | 29.70 | 57.83 | 58.76 | 59.71 | 60.67 | 61.64 |
EBIT | 24.70 | 39.30 | 18.60 | 111.90 | 19.10 | 45.80 | 46.53 | 47.28 | 48.04 | 48.81 |
Tax Rate | -9.38% | 132.04% | 0.78% | 18.32% | 9.03% | 30.16% | 30.16% | 30.16% | 30.16% | 30.16% |
EBIAT | 27.02 | -12.59 | 18.46 | 91.40 | 17.38 | 31.99 | 32.50 | 33.02 | 33.55 | 34.09 |
Depreciation | 14.60 | 12.50 | 8.90 | 9.40 | 10.60 | 12.04 | 12.23 | 12.43 | 12.63 | 12.83 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 2.40 | -3.50 | -30 | 1.40 | 10.93 | -1.59 | -1.62 | -1.64 | -1.67 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 54.95 | 43.14 | 43.83 | 44.53 | 45.25 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 52.30 | 39.07 | 37.78 | 36.53 | 35.32 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 200.99 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.08 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 46.16 |
Terminal Value | 1,498.57 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,169.71 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,370.69 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 153.40 |
Equity Value | 1,217.29 |
Shares Outstanding | 44.30 |
Equity Value Per Share | 27.48 |