Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL)
$49.2
+2.76 (+5.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,037.67 | 1,126.28 | 1,427.41 | 1,581.77 | 1,769.44 | 2,025.80 | 2,319.32 | 2,655.35 | 3,040.08 | 3,480.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 56.04 | 51.11 | 126.94 | 141.09 | 220.82 | 163 | 186.62 | 213.66 | 244.62 | 280.06 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 39.28 | 30.37 | 94.15 | 106.89 | 168.76 | 119.01 | 136.25 | 155.99 | 178.59 | 204.47 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 16.77 | 20.74 | 32.78 | 34.20 | 52.07 | 44 | 50.37 | 57.67 | 66.03 | 75.59 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 94.10 | 45.73 | 66.18 | 81.84 | 181.54 | 134.51 | 154 | 176.31 | 201.86 | 231.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 197.29 | 300 | 279.05 | 332.36 | 372.45 | 434.57 | 497.54 | 569.62 | 652.15 | 746.64 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.16 | 3.43 | 4.35 | 4.82 | 5.39 | 6.17 | 7.06 | 8.08 | 9.26 | 10.60 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 99.43 | 137.59 | 95.20 | 144.98 | 121.89 | 180.39 | 206.52 | 236.44 | 270.70 | 309.92 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -13.17 | -15.40 | -32.86 | -46.65 | -60.91 | -45.91 | -52.56 | -60.17 | -68.89 | -78.87 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 49.2 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.344 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.56 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.05 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.18% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.035 |
| Total Debt | 491.16 |
| Total Equity | 1,503.75 |
| Total Capital | 1,994.91 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.62 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.38 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,037.67 | 1,126.28 | 1,427.41 | 1,581.77 | 1,769.44 | 2,025.80 | 2,319.32 | 2,655.35 | 3,040.08 | 3,480.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 56.04 | 51.11 | 126.94 | 141.09 | 220.82 | 163 | 186.62 | 213.66 | 244.62 | 280.06 |
| EBIT | 39.28 | 30.37 | 94.15 | 106.89 | 168.76 | 119.01 | 136.25 | 155.99 | 178.59 | 204.47 |
| Tax Rate | 19.47% | -175.58% | 35.29% | 30.41% | 24.05% | -13.27% | -13.27% | -13.27% | -13.27% | -13.27% |
| EBIAT | 31.63 | 83.70 | 60.93 | 74.38 | 128.18 | 134.80 | 154.33 | 176.69 | 202.29 | 231.60 |
| Depreciation | 16.77 | 20.74 | 32.78 | 34.20 | 52.07 | 44 | 50.37 | 57.67 | 66.03 | 75.59 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -102.71 | 20.95 | -53.31 | -40.09 | -62.12 | -62.96 | -72.09 | -82.53 | -94.49 |
| Inventories | - | -0.27 | -0.92 | -0.47 | -0.57 | -0.78 | -0.89 | -1.02 | -1.17 | -1.34 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 38.17 | -42.39 | 49.78 | -23.10 | 58.50 | 26.14 | 29.92 | 34.26 | 39.22 |
| Capital Expenditure | -13.17 | -15.40 | -32.86 | -46.65 | -60.91 | -45.91 | -52.56 | -60.17 | -68.89 | -78.87 |
| UFCF | 35.23 | 24.23 | 38.49 | 57.94 | 55.58 | 128.49 | 114.43 | 131 | 149.99 | 171.72 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 118.59 | 97.47 | 102.99 | 108.83 | 114.99 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 542.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.35 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 175.15 |
| Terminal Value | 2,758.28 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,847.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,389.98 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 309.62 |
| Equity Value | 2,080.36 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.56 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 68.07 |