Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Strattec Security Corporation (STRT)
$22.85
+0.05 (+0.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 487.01 | 385.30 | 485.29 | 452.27 | 492.95 | 501.89 | 511 | 520.27 | 529.71 | 539.32 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 30.22 | 12.13 | 55.10 | 28.88 | 10.78 | 29.39 | 29.92 | 30.46 | 31.02 | 31.58 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 13.06 | -7.20 | 35.31 | 9.50 | -6.71 | 8.86 | 9.02 | 9.19 | 9.35 | 9.52 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 17.16 | 19.33 | 19.79 | 19.38 | 17.49 | 20.53 | 20.90 | 21.28 | 21.66 | 22.06 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 7.81 | 11.77 | 14.46 | 8.77 | 20.57 | 13.80 | 14.06 | 14.31 | 14.57 | 14.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 84.23 | 41.96 | 69.90 | 75.83 | 89.81 | 77.87 | 79.28 | 80.72 | 82.18 | 83.67 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 47.26 | 54.40 | 70.86 | 80.48 | 77.60 | 72.23 | 73.54 | 74.88 | 76.24 | 77.62 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 41.89 | 18.55 | 36.73 | 43.95 | 57.93 | 42.61 | 43.39 | 44.17 | 44.97 | 45.79 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -17.45 | -12.38 | -8.93 | -14.19 | -17.37 | -15.36 | -15.63 | -15.92 | -16.21 | -16.50 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 22.85 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.175 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3.92 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 13.02 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.42% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.141 |
Total Debt | 13 |
Total Equity | 89.59 |
Total Capital | 102.59 |
Debt Weighting | 12.67 |
Equity Weighting | 87.33 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 487.01 | 385.30 | 485.29 | 452.27 | 492.95 | 501.89 | 511 | 520.27 | 529.71 | 539.32 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 30.22 | 12.13 | 55.10 | 28.88 | 10.78 | 29.39 | 29.92 | 30.46 | 31.02 | 31.58 |
EBIT | 13.06 | -7.20 | 35.31 | 9.50 | -6.71 | 8.86 | 9.02 | 9.19 | 9.35 | 9.52 |
Tax Rate | 37.88% | 27.90% | 35.64% | 24.22% | 13.02% | 27.73% | 27.73% | 27.73% | 27.73% | 27.73% |
EBIAT | 8.11 | -5.19 | 22.73 | 7.20 | -5.83 | 6.40 | 6.52 | 6.64 | 6.76 | 6.88 |
Depreciation | 17.16 | 19.33 | 19.79 | 19.38 | 17.49 | 20.53 | 20.90 | 21.28 | 21.66 | 22.06 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 42.28 | -27.95 | -5.93 | -13.98 | 11.94 | -1.41 | -1.44 | -1.46 | -1.49 |
Inventories | - | -7.14 | -16.46 | -9.62 | 2.88 | 5.36 | -1.31 | -1.33 | -1.36 | -1.38 |
Accounts Payable | - | -23.34 | 18.18 | 7.22 | 13.98 | -15.31 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -17.45 | -12.38 | -8.93 | -14.19 | -17.37 | -15.36 | -15.63 | -15.92 | -16.21 | -16.50 |
UFCF | 7.82 | 13.55 | 7.35 | 4.07 | -2.84 | 13.57 | 9.83 | 10.01 | 10.19 | 10.38 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 12.37 | 8.18 | 7.59 | 7.05 | 6.54 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 41.73 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.67 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 10.59 |
Terminal Value | 138.04 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 87.01 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 128.74 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -7.57 |
Equity Value | 136.31 |
Shares Outstanding | 3.92 |
Equity Value Per Share | 34.76 |