Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Strattec Security Corporation (STRT)
$19.25
-0.05 (-0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 439.19 | 487.01 | 385.30 | 485.29 | 452.27 | 462.61 | 473.19 | 484.01 | 495.08 | 506.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 30.08 | -6 | 10.38 | 47.73 | 27.05 | 22.32 | 22.83 | 23.36 | 23.89 | 24.44 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 15.49 | -23.15 | -8.95 | 27.94 | 7.67 | 3.61 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.95 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 14.58 | 17.16 | 19.33 | 19.79 | 19.38 | 18.71 | 19.14 | 19.58 | 20.02 | 20.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 8.09 | 7.81 | 11.77 | 14.46 | 8.77 | 10.57 | 10.81 | 11.06 | 11.31 | 11.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 77.39 | 86.34 | 44.87 | 75.62 | 78.32 | 73.92 | 75.61 | 77.34 | 79.11 | 80.92 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 46.65 | 47.26 | 54.40 | 70.86 | 80.48 | 61.84 | 63.26 | 64.71 | 66.19 | 67.70 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 38.44 | 41.89 | 18.55 | 36.73 | 43.95 | 36.50 | 37.34 | 38.19 | 39.07 | 39.96 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -24.13 | -17.45 | -12.38 | -8.93 | -14.19 | -15.98 | -16.34 | -16.72 | -17.10 | -17.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.25 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.206 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3.85 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.22 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.52% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.428 |
| Total Debt | 11 |
| Total Equity | 74.15 |
| Total Capital | 85.15 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.92 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.08 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 439.19 | 487.01 | 385.30 | 485.29 | 452.27 | 462.61 | 473.19 | 484.01 | 495.08 | 506.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 30.08 | -6 | 10.38 | 47.73 | 27.05 | 22.32 | 22.83 | 23.36 | 23.89 | 24.44 |
| EBIT | 15.49 | -23.15 | -8.95 | 27.94 | 7.67 | 3.61 | 3.69 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.95 |
| Tax Rate | 30.60% | 16.66% | 6.38% | 35.64% | 24.22% | 22.70% | 22.70% | 22.70% | 22.70% | 22.70% |
| EBIAT | 10.75 | -19.30 | -8.38 | 17.99 | 5.81 | 2.79 | 2.86 | 2.92 | 2.99 | 3.06 |
| Depreciation | 14.58 | 17.16 | 19.33 | 19.79 | 19.38 | 18.71 | 19.14 | 19.58 | 20.02 | 20.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -8.95 | 41.47 | -30.75 | -2.70 | 4.40 | -1.69 | -1.73 | -1.77 | -1.81 |
| Inventories | - | -0.61 | -7.14 | -16.46 | -9.62 | 18.64 | -1.41 | -1.45 | -1.48 | -1.51 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 3.45 | -23.34 | 18.18 | 7.22 | -7.45 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.89 |
| Capital Expenditure | -24.13 | -17.45 | -12.38 | -8.93 | -14.19 | -15.98 | -16.34 | -16.72 | -17.10 | -17.49 |
| UFCF | 1.20 | -25.69 | 9.56 | -0.19 | 5.91 | 21.12 | 3.38 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 3.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 19.48 | 2.88 | 2.71 | 2.56 | 2.42 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 30.05 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.41 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3.69 |
| Terminal Value | 57.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 38.45 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 68.50 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2.23 |
| Equity Value | 66.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.85 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 17.21 |