Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)
$17.05
+0.20 (+1.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 836.36 | 959.42 | 689.31 | 885.14 | 1,464.72 | 1,759.30 | 2,113.13 | 2,538.12 | 3,048.59 | 3,661.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 940.19 | 1,145.02 | 865.80 | 986.09 | 1,831.72 | 2,089.42 | 2,509.65 | 3,014.39 | 3,620.64 | 4,348.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 809.35 | 1,031.63 | 771.65 | 901.50 | 1,730.12 | 1,886.70 | 2,266.15 | 2,721.92 | 3,269.35 | 3,926.89 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 130.84 | 113.39 | 94.15 | 84.59 | 101.60 | 202.73 | 243.50 | 292.47 | 351.29 | 421.94 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 239.82 | 478.39 | 563.22 | 15,754.21 | 18,662.50 | 11,309.58 | 13,584.17 | 16,316.22 | 19,597.74 | 23,539.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 60.35 | 64.09 | 95.98 | 116.26 | 168.52 | 184.59 | 221.71 | 266.30 | 319.86 | 384.19 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 217.66 | 212.01 | 206.85 | 189.70 | 299 | 422.14 | 507.04 | 609.02 | 731.50 | 878.62 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.05 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.623 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 282.48 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 12.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 29.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.140 |
| Total Debt | 2,329.21 |
| Total Equity | 4,816.34 |
| Total Capital | 7,145.55 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 836.36 | 959.42 | 689.31 | 885.14 | 1,464.72 | 1,759.30 | 2,113.13 | 2,538.12 | 3,048.59 | 3,661.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 940.19 | 1,145.02 | 865.80 | 986.09 | 1,831.72 | 2,089.42 | 2,509.65 | 3,014.39 | 3,620.64 | 4,348.83 |
| EBIT | 809.35 | 1,031.63 | 771.65 | 901.50 | 1,730.12 | 1,886.70 | 2,266.15 | 2,721.92 | 3,269.35 | 3,926.89 |
| Tax Rate | 9.54% | 7.36% | 14.13% | 10.65% | 12.64% | 10.86% | 10.86% | 10.86% | 10.86% | 10.86% |
| EBIAT | 732.12 | 955.68 | 662.60 | 805.50 | 1,511.48 | 1,681.73 | 2,019.95 | 2,426.21 | 2,914.17 | 3,500.26 |
| Depreciation | 130.84 | 113.39 | 94.15 | 84.59 | 101.60 | 202.73 | 243.50 | 292.47 | 351.29 | 421.94 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.73 | -31.89 | -20.28 | -52.26 | -16.07 | -37.12 | -44.59 | -53.56 | -64.33 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.66 | -5.16 | -17.15 | 109.30 | 123.14 | 84.90 | 101.98 | 122.49 | 147.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 1,991.53 | 2,311.23 | 2,776.06 | 3,334.38 | 4,005 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,698.53 | 1,681.19 | 1,722.23 | 1,764.27 | 1,807.33 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 8,673.55 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 17.25 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,085.10 |
| Terminal Value | 26,787.52 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 12,088.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 20,761.93 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,068.15 |
| Equity Value | 18,693.78 |
| Shares Outstanding | 282.48 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 66.18 |