Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

$61.64

+0.04 (+0.06%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 124.24 | 61.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	11,184	10,390	10,509	10,681	11,661	11,802.62	11,945.95	12,091.03	12,237.87	12,386.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,252	2,137	1,612	1,965	2,379	2,238.76	2,265.94	2,293.46	2,321.31	2,349.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,654	1,596	1,233	1,568	1,928	1,725.47	1,746.42	1,767.63	1,789.10	1,810.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	598	541	379	397	451	513.29	519.52	525.83	532.22	538.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,853	2,222	1,722	1,209	615	1,674.40	1,694.73	1,715.31	1,736.15	1,757.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,184	989	1,115	1,158	1,532	1,291.08	1,306.76	1,322.63	1,338.69	1,354.95
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,053	970	1,142	1,204	1,565	1,282.03	1,297.60	1,313.36	1,329.31	1,345.45
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,728	1,420	1,808	1,725	2,058	1,891.27	1,914.24	1,937.48	1,961.01	1,984.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-366	-602	-585	-498	-381	-532.61	-539.07	-545.62	-552.25	-558.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 61.64
Beta	1.096
Diluted Shares Outstanding	224
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	1.79
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.552
Total Debt	5,696
Total Equity	13,807.36
Total Capital	19,503.36
Debt Weighting	29.21
Equity Weighting	70.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	11,184	10,390	10,509	10,681	11,661	11,802.62	11,945.95	12,091.03	12,237.87	12,386.49
EBITDA	2,252	2,137	1,612	1,965	2,379	2,238.76	2,265.94	2,293.46	2,321.31	2,349.51
EBIT	1,654	1,596	1,233	1,568	1,928	1,725.47	1,746.42	1,767.63	1,789.10	1,810.82
Tax Rate	16.64%	-46.65%	2.71%	2.52%	1.79%	-4.60%	-4.60%	-4.60%	-4.60%	-4.60%
EBIAT	1,378.72	2,340.49	1,199.55	1,528.45	1,893.55	1,804.77	1,826.69	1,848.88	1,871.33	1,894.06
Depreciation	598	541	379	397	451	513.29	519.52	525.83	532.22	538.68
Accounts Receivable	-	195	-126	-43	-374	240.92	-15.68	-15.87	-16.06	-16.26
Inventories	-	83	-172	-62	-361	282.97	-15.57	-15.76	-15.95	-16.14
Accounts Payable	-	-308	388	-83	333	-166.73	22.97	23.25	23.53	23.82
Capital Expenditure	-366	-602	-585	-498	-381	-532.61	-539.07	-545.62	-552.25	-558.95
UFCF	1,610.72	2,249.49	1,083.55	1,239.45	1,561.55	2,142.62	1,798.86	1,820.71	1,842.82	1,865.20
WACC
PV UFCF						1,996.66	1,562.13	1,473.40	1,389.70	1,310.76
SUM PV UFCF										7,732.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.31
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,902.50
Terminal Value	35,828.69
Present Value of Terminal Value	25,178.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	32,911.16
Net Debt	5,081
Equity Value	27,830.16
Shares Outstanding	224
Equity Value Per Share	124.24