Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

$257.24

-4.66 (-1.78%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -44.88 | 257.24 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	8,116	8,343.50	8,614.90	8,820.70	9,452.60	9,821.46	10,204.71	10,602.91	11,016.65	11,446.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,745.30	2,856.60	3,094.70	3,333.20	3,226.70	3,455.38	3,590.22	3,730.31	3,875.87	4,027.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,412.20	2,530.10	2,800.90	2,995.90	2,842.90	3,076.04	3,196.07	3,320.78	3,450.37	3,585.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	333.10	326.50	293.80	337.30	383.80	379.34	394.15	409.53	425.51	442.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	93.60	81.40	460.60	199.40	133.50	218.99	227.53	236.41	245.63	255.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	846.90	864.80	785.30	899	901.60	975.18	1,013.24	1,052.77	1,093.86	1,136.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	2,130.40	1,373.60	1,291.10	1,573.20	1,898.70	1,878.28	1,951.57	2,027.73	2,106.85	2,189.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	616.70	557.60	460	899.20	941.50	781.31	811.80	843.47	876.39	910.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-886.30	-726.50	-864.60	-1,026.80	-1,035.40	-1,026.50	-1,066.56	-1,108.18	-1,151.42	-1,196.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 257.24
Beta	1.046
Diluted Shares Outstanding	192.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	110.04
After-tax Cost of Debt	-0.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.407
Total Debt	12,461.30
Total Equity	49,529.76
Total Capital	61,991.06
Debt Weighting	20.10
Equity Weighting	79.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	8,116	8,343.50	8,614.90	8,820.70	9,452.60	9,821.46	10,204.71	10,602.91	11,016.65	11,446.54
EBITDA	2,745.30	2,856.60	3,094.70	3,333.20	3,226.70	3,455.38	3,590.22	3,730.31	3,875.87	4,027.12
EBIT	2,412.20	2,530.10	2,800.90	2,995.90	2,842.90	3,076.04	3,196.07	3,320.78	3,450.37	3,585.01
Tax Rate	17.11%	102.26%	21.43%	99.68%	110.04%	70.10%	70.10%	70.10%	70.10%	70.10%
EBIAT	1,999.54	-57.28	2,200.72	9.65	-285.33	919.65	955.53	992.82	1,031.56	1,071.82
Depreciation	333.10	326.50	293.80	337.30	383.80	379.34	394.15	409.53	425.51	442.11
Accounts Receivable	-	-17.90	79.50	-113.70	-2.60	-73.58	-38.05	-39.54	-41.08	-42.68
Inventories	-	756.80	82.50	-282.10	-325.50	20.42	-73.29	-76.15	-79.13	-82.21
Accounts Payable	-	-59.10	-97.60	439.20	42.30	-160.19	30.49	31.68	32.91	34.20
Capital Expenditure	-886.30	-726.50	-864.60	-1,026.80	-1,035.40	-1,026.50	-1,066.56	-1,108.18	-1,151.42	-1,196.35
UFCF	1,446.34	222.52	1,694.31	-636.45	-1,222.73	59.14	202.26	210.16	218.36	226.88
WACC
PV UFCF						55.04	175.19	169.40	163.81	158.40
SUM PV UFCF										721.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.45
Free cash flow (t + 1)	231.41
Terminal Value	4,246.13
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,964.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,686.40
Net Debt	12,327.80
Equity Value	-8,641.40
Shares Outstanding	192.54
Equity Value Per Share	-44.88