Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN)
$35.59
+0.14 (+0.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 408.90 | 392.76 | 520.40 | 579.78 | 667.24 | 759.06 | 863.52 | 982.36 | 1,117.55 | 1,271.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 165.35 | 176.85 | 210.54 | 129.19 | 150.44 | 259.23 | 294.90 | 335.49 | 381.66 | 434.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 158.29 | 170.19 | 192.40 | 96.60 | 61.67 | 220.01 | 250.28 | 284.73 | 323.91 | 368.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.06 | 6.66 | 18.14 | 32.59 | 88.78 | 39.22 | 44.62 | 50.76 | 57.75 | 65.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 356.02 | 347.07 | 422.53 | 339.68 | 461.33 | 583.51 | 663.81 | 755.16 | 859.08 | 977.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 102.92 | 87.33 | 140.88 | 148.93 | 165.50 | 189.72 | 215.83 | 245.53 | 279.32 | 317.76 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 25.66 | 26.63 | 48.33 | 85.96 | 91.54 | 77.25 | 87.88 | 99.98 | 113.74 | 129.39 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.19 | 10.14 | 6.15 | 9.33 | 96.34 | 31.26 | 35.56 | 40.46 | 46.03 | 52.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.84 | -2.74 | -3.45 | -2.04 | -0.41 | -3.01 | -3.42 | -3.89 | -4.43 | -5.04 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 35.59 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.048 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 61.68 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.05 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.61% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.662 |
| Total Debt | 437.97 |
| Total Equity | 2,195.18 |
| Total Capital | 2,633.15 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.63 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.37 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 408.90 | 392.76 | 520.40 | 579.78 | 667.24 | 759.06 | 863.52 | 982.36 | 1,117.55 | 1,271.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 165.35 | 176.85 | 210.54 | 129.19 | 150.44 | 259.23 | 294.90 | 335.49 | 381.66 | 434.18 |
| EBIT | 158.29 | 170.19 | 192.40 | 96.60 | 61.67 | 220.01 | 250.28 | 284.73 | 323.91 | 368.49 |
| Tax Rate | 20.82% | 23.35% | 24.72% | 26.99% | 0.05% | 19.19% | 19.19% | 19.19% | 19.19% | 19.19% |
| EBIAT | 125.33 | 130.46 | 144.83 | 70.52 | 61.63 | 177.79 | 202.26 | 230.10 | 261.76 | 297.79 |
| Depreciation | 7.06 | 6.66 | 18.14 | 32.59 | 88.78 | 39.22 | 44.62 | 50.76 | 57.75 | 65.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 15.59 | -53.55 | -8.05 | -16.56 | -24.22 | -26.11 | -29.70 | -33.79 | -38.44 |
| Inventories | - | -0.97 | -21.70 | -37.63 | -5.58 | 14.29 | -10.63 | -12.09 | -13.76 | -15.65 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 6.95 | -3.99 | 3.18 | 87.01 | -65.08 | 4.30 | 4.89 | 5.57 | 6.33 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.84 | -2.74 | -3.45 | -2.04 | -0.41 | -3.01 | -3.42 | -3.89 | -4.43 | -5.04 |
| UFCF | 131.55 | 155.95 | 80.29 | 58.57 | 214.86 | 139 | 211.02 | 240.06 | 273.10 | 310.69 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 129.31 | 182.64 | 193.30 | 204.58 | 216.51 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 926.34 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.49 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 316.90 |
| Terminal Value | 5,772.31 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,022.62 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,948.96 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 344.85 |
| Equity Value | 4,604.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 61.68 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 74.65 |