Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV)

$2.29

+0.15 (+7.01%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 351.43 | 2.29 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	14,264.71	27,953.89	40,523.70	53,191.62	70,324.47	106,260.59	160,560.23	242,607.24	366,580.63	553,905
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	8,691.14	15,828.63	34,745.22	35,157.01	63,270.02	76,370.73	115,396.52	174,364.67	263,465.80	398,098.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	8,691.14	15,396.25	32,930.55	32,749.98	59,044.87	71,972.05	108,750.09	164,321.87	248,291.10	375,168.97
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	432.39	1,814.67	2,407.03	4,225.14	4,398.69	6,646.44	10,042.79	15,174.71	22,929.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	11,617.08	33,696.35	26,403.10	36,674.87	32,574.12	81,269.15	122,798.06	185,548.43	280,364.51	423,632.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	26,903.05	12,978.29	12,944.66	24,352.63	56,379.55	83,504.47	126,175.63	190,651.95	288,075.96	435,284.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	751.32	552.61	2,193.82	1,362.54	12,852.75	7,118.50	10,756.08	16,252.49	24,557.59	37,106.63
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-175.84	-1,263.76	-1,113.87	-4,724.07	-5,023.01	-5,212.32	-7,875.84	-11,900.43	-17,981.60	-27,170.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.29
Beta	1.856
Diluted Shares Outstanding	91.34
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-19.09
After-tax Cost of Debt	2,502.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.365
Total Debt	2,417.51
Total Equity	209.18
Total Capital	2,626.68
Debt Weighting	92.04
Equity Weighting	7.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	14,264.71	27,953.89	40,523.70	53,191.62	70,324.47	106,260.59	160,560.23	242,607.24	366,580.63	553,905
EBITDA	8,691.14	15,828.63	34,745.22	35,157.01	63,270.02	76,370.73	115,396.52	174,364.67	263,465.80	398,098.02
EBIT	8,691.14	15,396.25	32,930.55	32,749.98	59,044.87	71,972.05	108,750.09	164,321.87	248,291.10	375,168.97
Tax Rate	24.21%	-48.01%	-8.40%	16.12%	-19.09%	-7.04%	-7.04%	-7.04%	-7.04%	-7.04%
EBIAT	6,587.23	22,788.53	35,695.70	27,470.72	70,318.71	77,035.52	116,401.02	175,882.47	265,759.20	401,563.36
Depreciation	-	432.39	1,814.67	2,407.03	4,225.14	4,398.69	6,646.44	10,042.79	15,174.71	22,929.05
Accounts Receivable	-	13,924.76	33.63	-11,407.97	-32,026.92	-27,124.92	-42,671.16	-64,476.32	-97,424.01	-147,208.12
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-198.71	1,641.21	-831.28	11,490.21	-5,734.26	3,637.59	5,496.41	8,305.10	12,549.04
Capital Expenditure	-175.84	-1,263.76	-1,113.88	-4,724.07	-5,023.01	-5,212.32	-7,875.84	-11,900.43	-17,981.60	-27,170.28
UFCF	6,411.39	35,683.20	38,071.34	12,914.42	48,984.14	43,362.71	76,138.04	115,044.92	173,833.40	262,663.05
WACC
PV UFCF						1,803.59	131.72	8.28	0.52	0.03
SUM PV UFCF										1,944.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2,304.25
Free cash flow (t + 1)	267,916.31
Terminal Value	11,637.15
Present Value of Terminal Value	0

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,944.14
Net Debt	-30,156.61
Equity Value	32,100.75
Shares Outstanding	91.34
Equity Value Per Share	351.43