Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Suzano S.A. (SUZ)

$9.33

+0.38 (+4.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 79.84 | 9.33 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 13,443.3826,012.9530,460.2840,965.4349,830.9570,601.26100,028.96141,722.59200,794.76284,489.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,924.963,699.77-7,624.2019,655.8940,684.0419,849.7228,123.3939,845.6656,453.9579,984.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,361.73-741.17-14,376.4012,573.0833,245.958,118.0711,501.8016,295.9323,088.3332,711.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,563.224,440.956,752.217,082.807,438.0911,731.6516,621.5923,549.7233,365.6247,272.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 25,486.029,399.769,047.1421,099.0517,052.5948,170.1468,248.2196,695.12136,999.15194,102.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,833.894,033.023,322.066,898.7910,163.9311,963.7516,950.4324,015.6334,025.7248,208.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,853.104,685.604,009.334,637.495,728.269,570.0613,559.0119,210.6227,217.9038,562.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 632.572,376.462,361.103,288.906,206.575,941.278,417.6811,926.3016,897.3623,940.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,423.70-4,868.43-4,897.86-6,243.47-14,839.12-13,815.76-19,574.38-27,733.29-39,292.96-55,670.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.33
Beta 0.690
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,309.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.36
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.946
Total Debt 80,757.12
Total Equity 12,216.25
Total Capital 92,973.38
Debt Weighting 86.86
Equity Weighting 13.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 13,443.3826,012.9530,460.2840,965.4349,830.9570,601.26100,028.96141,722.59200,794.76284,489.14
EBITDA 2,924.963,699.77-7,624.2019,655.8940,684.0419,849.7228,123.3939,845.6656,453.9579,984.83
EBIT 1,361.73-741.17-14,376.4012,573.0833,245.958,118.0711,501.8016,295.9323,088.3332,711.90
Tax Rate -93.40%31.23%39.21%2.34%18.36%-0.45%-0.45%-0.45%-0.45%-0.45%
EBIAT 2,633.65-509.68-8,739.5612,279.0427,142.548,154.8411,553.9016,369.7523,192.9232,860.08
Depreciation 1,563.224,440.956,752.217,082.807,438.0911,731.6516,621.5923,549.7233,365.6247,272.92
Accounts Receivable --1,199.13710.96-3,576.74-3,265.13-1,799.83-4,986.68-7,065.20-10,010.09-14,182.45
Inventories --2,832.49676.26-628.15-1,090.78-3,841.80-3,988.95-5,651.61-8,007.28-11,344.85
Accounts Payable -1,743.89-15.36927.802,917.67-265.302,476.413,508.624,971.077,043.08
Capital Expenditure -2,423.70-4,868.43-4,897.86-6,243.47-14,839.12-13,815.76-19,574.38-27,733.29-39,292.96-55,670.87
UFCF 1,773.18-3,224.89-5,513.359,841.2918,303.28163.802,101.892,977.994,219.275,977.92
WACC
PV UFCF 156.091,908.662,576.923,479.154,697.26
SUM PV UFCF 12,818.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,097.48
Terminal Value 207,397.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 162,966.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 175,784.35
Net Debt 71,251.17
Equity Value 104,533.18
Shares Outstanding 1,309.35
Equity Value Per Share 79.84