Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Suzano S.A. (SUZ)

$9.33

+0.38 (+4.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 79.84 | 9.33 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,443.38	26,012.95	30,460.28	40,965.43	49,830.95	70,601.26	100,028.96	141,722.59	200,794.76	284,489.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,924.96	3,699.77	-7,624.20	19,655.89	40,684.04	19,849.72	28,123.39	39,845.66	56,453.95	79,984.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,361.73	-741.17	-14,376.40	12,573.08	33,245.95	8,118.07	11,501.80	16,295.93	23,088.33	32,711.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,563.22	4,440.95	6,752.21	7,082.80	7,438.09	11,731.65	16,621.59	23,549.72	33,365.62	47,272.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	25,486.02	9,399.76	9,047.14	21,099.05	17,052.59	48,170.14	68,248.21	96,695.12	136,999.15	194,102.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,833.89	4,033.02	3,322.06	6,898.79	10,163.93	11,963.75	16,950.43	24,015.63	34,025.72	48,208.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,853.10	4,685.60	4,009.33	4,637.49	5,728.26	9,570.06	13,559.01	19,210.62	27,217.90	38,562.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	632.57	2,376.46	2,361.10	3,288.90	6,206.57	5,941.27	8,417.68	11,926.30	16,897.36	23,940.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-2,423.70	-4,868.43	-4,897.86	-6,243.47	-14,839.12	-13,815.76	-19,574.38	-27,733.29	-39,292.96	-55,670.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 9.33
Beta	0.690
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,309.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.36
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.946
Total Debt	80,757.12
Total Equity	12,216.25
Total Capital	92,973.38
Debt Weighting	86.86
Equity Weighting	13.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,443.38	26,012.95	30,460.28	40,965.43	49,830.95	70,601.26	100,028.96	141,722.59	200,794.76	284,489.14
EBITDA	2,924.96	3,699.77	-7,624.20	19,655.89	40,684.04	19,849.72	28,123.39	39,845.66	56,453.95	79,984.83
EBIT	1,361.73	-741.17	-14,376.40	12,573.08	33,245.95	8,118.07	11,501.80	16,295.93	23,088.33	32,711.90
Tax Rate	-93.40%	31.23%	39.21%	2.34%	18.36%	-0.45%	-0.45%	-0.45%	-0.45%	-0.45%
EBIAT	2,633.65	-509.68	-8,739.56	12,279.04	27,142.54	8,154.84	11,553.90	16,369.75	23,192.92	32,860.08
Depreciation	1,563.22	4,440.95	6,752.21	7,082.80	7,438.09	11,731.65	16,621.59	23,549.72	33,365.62	47,272.92
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,199.13	710.96	-3,576.74	-3,265.13	-1,799.83	-4,986.68	-7,065.20	-10,010.09	-14,182.45
Inventories	-	-2,832.49	676.26	-628.15	-1,090.78	-3,841.80	-3,988.95	-5,651.61	-8,007.28	-11,344.85
Accounts Payable	-	1,743.89	-15.36	927.80	2,917.67	-265.30	2,476.41	3,508.62	4,971.07	7,043.08
Capital Expenditure	-2,423.70	-4,868.43	-4,897.86	-6,243.47	-14,839.12	-13,815.76	-19,574.38	-27,733.29	-39,292.96	-55,670.87
UFCF	1,773.18	-3,224.89	-5,513.35	9,841.29	18,303.28	163.80	2,101.89	2,977.99	4,219.27	5,977.92
WACC
PV UFCF						156.09	1,908.66	2,576.92	3,479.15	4,697.26
SUM PV UFCF										12,818.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.94
Free cash flow (t + 1)	6,097.48
Terminal Value	207,397.27
Present Value of Terminal Value	162,966.28

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	175,784.35
Net Debt	71,251.17
Equity Value	104,533.18
Shares Outstanding	1,309.35
Equity Value Per Share	79.84