Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Suzano S.A. (SUZ)
$9.33
+0.38 (+4.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 13,443.38 | 26,012.95 | 30,460.28 | 40,965.43 | 49,830.95 | 70,601.26 | 100,028.96 | 141,722.59 | 200,794.76 | 284,489.14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,924.96 | 3,699.77 | -7,624.20 | 19,655.89 | 40,684.04 | 19,849.72 | 28,123.39 | 39,845.66 | 56,453.95 | 79,984.83 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,361.73 | -741.17 | -14,376.40 | 12,573.08 | 33,245.95 | 8,118.07 | 11,501.80 | 16,295.93 | 23,088.33 | 32,711.90 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,563.22 | 4,440.95 | 6,752.21 | 7,082.80 | 7,438.09 | 11,731.65 | 16,621.59 | 23,549.72 | 33,365.62 | 47,272.92 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 25,486.02 | 9,399.76 | 9,047.14 | 21,099.05 | 17,052.59 | 48,170.14 | 68,248.21 | 96,695.12 | 136,999.15 | 194,102.52 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2,833.89 | 4,033.02 | 3,322.06 | 6,898.79 | 10,163.93 | 11,963.75 | 16,950.43 | 24,015.63 | 34,025.72 | 48,208.17 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,853.10 | 4,685.60 | 4,009.33 | 4,637.49 | 5,728.26 | 9,570.06 | 13,559.01 | 19,210.62 | 27,217.90 | 38,562.75 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 632.57 | 2,376.46 | 2,361.10 | 3,288.90 | 6,206.57 | 5,941.27 | 8,417.68 | 11,926.30 | 16,897.36 | 23,940.44 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,423.70 | -4,868.43 | -4,897.86 | -6,243.47 | -14,839.12 | -13,815.76 | -19,574.38 | -27,733.29 | -39,292.96 | -55,670.87 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 9.33 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.690 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,309.35 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.36 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.64% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.946 |
Total Debt | 80,757.12 |
Total Equity | 12,216.25 |
Total Capital | 92,973.38 |
Debt Weighting | 86.86 |
Equity Weighting | 13.14 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 13,443.38 | 26,012.95 | 30,460.28 | 40,965.43 | 49,830.95 | 70,601.26 | 100,028.96 | 141,722.59 | 200,794.76 | 284,489.14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,924.96 | 3,699.77 | -7,624.20 | 19,655.89 | 40,684.04 | 19,849.72 | 28,123.39 | 39,845.66 | 56,453.95 | 79,984.83 |
EBIT | 1,361.73 | -741.17 | -14,376.40 | 12,573.08 | 33,245.95 | 8,118.07 | 11,501.80 | 16,295.93 | 23,088.33 | 32,711.90 |
Tax Rate | -93.40% | 31.23% | 39.21% | 2.34% | 18.36% | -0.45% | -0.45% | -0.45% | -0.45% | -0.45% |
EBIAT | 2,633.65 | -509.68 | -8,739.56 | 12,279.04 | 27,142.54 | 8,154.84 | 11,553.90 | 16,369.75 | 23,192.92 | 32,860.08 |
Depreciation | 1,563.22 | 4,440.95 | 6,752.21 | 7,082.80 | 7,438.09 | 11,731.65 | 16,621.59 | 23,549.72 | 33,365.62 | 47,272.92 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -1,199.13 | 710.96 | -3,576.74 | -3,265.13 | -1,799.83 | -4,986.68 | -7,065.20 | -10,010.09 | -14,182.45 |
Inventories | - | -2,832.49 | 676.26 | -628.15 | -1,090.78 | -3,841.80 | -3,988.95 | -5,651.61 | -8,007.28 | -11,344.85 |
Accounts Payable | - | 1,743.89 | -15.36 | 927.80 | 2,917.67 | -265.30 | 2,476.41 | 3,508.62 | 4,971.07 | 7,043.08 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,423.70 | -4,868.43 | -4,897.86 | -6,243.47 | -14,839.12 | -13,815.76 | -19,574.38 | -27,733.29 | -39,292.96 | -55,670.87 |
UFCF | 1,773.18 | -3,224.89 | -5,513.35 | 9,841.29 | 18,303.28 | 163.80 | 2,101.89 | 2,977.99 | 4,219.27 | 5,977.92 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 156.09 | 1,908.66 | 2,576.92 | 3,479.15 | 4,697.26 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 12,818.07 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.94 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,097.48 |
Terminal Value | 207,397.27 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 162,966.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 175,784.35 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 71,251.17 |
Equity Value | 104,533.18 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,309.35 |
Equity Value Per Share | 79.84 |