Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM.TO)

$3.78

-0.09 (-2.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.27 | 3.78 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 170.04170.52158.83192.10217.92233.08249.29266.62285.16305
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 67.5662.4844.2160.2571.7978.5584.0289.8696.11102.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 66.3661.2343.7659.7270.7077.3982.7788.5394.68101.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.201.250.450.531.091.161.241.331.421.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 106.11115.28142.52199.09212.93196.29209.94224.54240.15256.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1.224.793.987.524.795.666.066.486.937.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 11.0210.848.439.779.1212.7813.6714.6215.6316.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 25.2029.8623.1330.3039.6737.7040.3243.1246.1249.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -27.10-34.31-35.30-52.20-67.20-54.21-57.98-62.01-66.33-70.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.78
Beta 0.649
Diluted Shares Outstanding 177.07
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 46.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 14.49%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.756
Total Debt 1.26
Total Equity 669.34
Total Capital 670.60
Debt Weighting 0.19
Equity Weighting 99.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 170.04170.52158.83192.10217.92233.08249.29266.62285.16305
EBITDA 67.5662.4844.2160.2571.7978.5584.0289.8696.11102.79
EBIT 66.3661.2343.7659.7270.7077.3982.7788.5394.68101.27
Tax Rate 39.61%45.52%36.66%36.91%46.32%41.00%41.00%41.00%41.00%41.00%
EBIAT 40.0833.3527.7237.6837.9545.6648.8352.2355.8659.74
Depreciation 1.201.250.450.531.091.161.241.331.421.52
Accounts Receivable --3.570.81-3.552.73-0.87-0.39-0.42-0.45-0.48
Inventories -0.182.41-1.340.64-3.65-0.89-0.95-1.02-1.09
Accounts Payable -4.66-6.737.179.37-1.972.622.8033.21
Capital Expenditure -27.10-34.31-35.30-52.20-67.20-54.21-57.98-62.01-66.33-70.94
UFCF 14.171.57-10.65-11.70-15.42-13.89-6.57-7.02-7.51-8.03
WACC
PV UFCF -13.01-5.76-5.77-5.78-5.79
SUM PV UFCF -36.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.77
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8.20
Terminal Value -171.81
Present Value of Terminal Value -123.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -159.93
Net Debt -112.04
Equity Value -47.89
Shares Outstanding 177.07
Equity Value Per Share -0.27