Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. (SWBI)

$10.155

-0.20 (-1.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 59.60 | 10.155 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 606.85638.28678.391,059.20864.13970.371,089.681,223.651,374.101,543.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 79.0982.675.32361.94284.59182.19204.59229.74257.99289.71
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 27.0228.81-48.74330.36254.52121.15136.05152.77171.56192.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 52.0853.8654.0631.5730.0761.0368.5476.9786.4397.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 48.8641.01125.40113.02120.73111.79125.54140.97158.31177.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 61.2687.3795.0368.3564.64100.38112.73126.59142.15159.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 153.35163.77164.1978.48136.66190.88214.35240.71270.30303.53
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 33.6235.5839.2057.3430.0450.0456.1963.1070.8579.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.05-34.46-14.74-22.68-24.25-30.39-34.13-38.33-43.04-48.33
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.155
Beta 0.832
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.94
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.812
Total Debt 40.28
Total Equity 484.68
Total Capital 524.96
Debt Weighting 7.67
Equity Weighting 92.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 606.85638.28678.391,059.20864.13970.371,089.681,223.651,374.101,543.05
EBITDA 79.0982.675.32361.94284.59182.19204.59229.74257.99289.71
EBIT 27.0228.81-48.74330.36254.52121.15136.05152.77171.56192.65
Tax Rate -14.25%35.94%-2.14%20.73%22.94%12.64%12.64%12.64%12.64%12.64%
EBIAT 30.8718.45-49.78261.88196.14105.83118.85133.46149.87168.29
Depreciation 52.0853.8654.0631.5730.0761.0368.5476.9786.4397.06
Accounts Receivable --26.11-7.6626.683.71-35.74-12.34-13.86-15.56-17.48
Inventories --10.42-0.4285.71-58.18-54.22-23.47-26.35-29.59-33.23
Accounts Payable -1.973.6118.14-27.3019.996.156.917.768.71
Capital Expenditure -19.05-34.47-14.74-22.68-24.25-30.39-34.13-38.33-43.04-48.33
UFCF 63.893.29-14.93401.30120.1966.50123.60138.79155.86175.02
WACC
PV UFCF 61.85106.89111.63116.58121.74
SUM PV UFCF 518.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 178.52
Terminal Value 3,228.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,245.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,764.17
Net Debt -80.45
Equity Value 2,844.62
Shares Outstanding 47.73
Equity Value Per Share 59.60